Trade Like a Scientist (not a gambler)

Many novice traders believe trading success comes from prediction. If they could just predict what the market will do next, profits would follow. That belief sabotages more trading accounts than bad strategies ever could.

Consider scientists. Do they invent and discover by predicting and hoping?

No, scientists don’t. They observe, form hypotheses, test ideas, and revise their thinking when the evidence demands it. Successful traders operate the same way.

A scientist never says, “I think this experiment will work, so I’ll ignore the data if it doesn’t.” Yet traders do this every day. They fall in love with an idea, defend a bias, or rationalize a loss instead of learning from it. That’s not trading, that’s ego management.

Trading like a scientist starts with replacing opinions with questions. Instead of saying, “The market should go up here,” a scientific trader asks, “Under what conditions does price tend to move higher from this level?” That shift alone changes everything. You’re no longer predicting—you’re investigating.

Next comes the hypothesis. In trading, a hypothesis is a clear, testable statement about market behavior. It includes conditions, expectations, and a point where it’s proven wrong. If you can’t define where your trade thesis fails, you’re not trading—you’re hoping.

Simulated trading, data collection and review is the trader’s “laboratory.” A single trade means nothing, just like a single lab result proves nothing. Outcomes, win or lose, are only validated when repeated. You need a big sample size of results. This is why professionals obsess over perfecting their process, not individual wins or losses. Outcomes are just data.

Novice traders have trouble accepting uncertainty. Scientists thrive on it. The best theories are always provisional, open to revision as new evidence appears. The best traders think the same way. They imagine, create, adapt, refine, and evolve.

If you want to survive and thrive in the markets, stop trying to be right. Start thinking in probabilities that are successful over time. Apply the Scientific Method!

To your trading success!

Mike Siewruk

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