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Hi Mike,
Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested buy level @ 3908.50 missed filling by ONE tick, then ran for 22.25 points MFE. The second attempt filled for only 4 points MFE.
Quick Tip: Reframing
Looking at yesterday’s chart you see that the turning point @ 3908.50 almost filled. One tick away. Then a smooth fast move of 22+ points. It’s easy to have negative emotions when this occurs. Exasperation, hopelessness, even anger. Everyone reacts differently.
The only proper reaction should be positive. Take a miss or loss that was a “close call” and reframe your thinking to a positive.
Why? Because the strategy, Volume Profile in this case, worked just fine. The big buyers were there.
Reframe your thinking by putting the result in perspective. The market moved over 1.2 million ticks yesterday. Missing an entry by ONE tick doesn’t mean the strategy doesn’t work. Intraday trading is frequently challenged by noisy price action. Accept the fact.
Creative traders might be thinking, after seeing this occur a few times, “I’m going to enter a few ticks BEFORE the level.” Nothing wrong with that idea. But you need to review a large enough sample of these trades to determine if the gains you’ll get outweigh the added risk you’re taking on ALL the other trades by adding a few ticks.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -86 to +7 in a world of mixed sentiment and varying volatility. Historically there is no edge to be found with direction from the open and distance about the same either way.
Catalysts: Employment Report (“good news is bad news”) @ 8:30. Global bonds enter bear market.
Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (given the importance of the news today, breakouts from these levels rather than reversals is your consideration):
Sell 3990.50 stop 3995.50
Buy 3933.50 stop 3927.75.
Trade Fearlessly,
Mike Siewruk
P.S. Multiple strategies, software tools, teammates, and coaching. Learn why you should join our team here. For a personal consultation to assess fit (without selling) email me for an appointment: mike@thedailymarketforecast.com.
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