The Daily Market Forecast

For Fri 210917 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: No takeable trades.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is mixed. The “melt-up” environment has become “melt-down.” Stats are mixed. Looking to take trades in either direction and letting shorts run further. Friday (both sessions combined garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%).  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. VERY cautious with SPXW credit spreads due to Quad Witching.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4463/4469.25. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4457/4457.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -14 to +7. Improving? Not so fast. Asia rebounded from several days of selling, the western world sold off some. Mixed sentiment (no edge).

Catalysts: Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Quad Witching (volatility...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 210916 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price traded in a 15-point range and offered one takeable trade that ended a small loser. “Thursday Filter” saved you.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is mixed. Traditional chart analysis says bearish. Stats mixed, leaning bullish. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium for credit spreads ladders.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4438.50/4445.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4459.25/4460.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -43 to -14 in a world of very mixed sentiment. Asia trending down, Europe trending up, S&P Futures trending down (modest long edge).

Catalysts:...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Wed 210915 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price is range-bound between congested volume levels. No takeable trades triggered.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment leans bearish and that means buy-the-dip. Stats mixed. The levels are congested for the open. Patience required. Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%).  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium for credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4448.50/4453. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4446.75/4447.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) FADES from -29 to -43 in a world of bearish sentiment (long edge).

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index & Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. China’s...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Tue 210914 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price is range-bound between volume levels. The set/forget long trade off the CPL is still open running for 13 points so far.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment leans bearish and that means buy-the-dip. HOWEVER, CPI @ 8:30 will certainly determine the early trend. Stats say LONG is best. Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to initiate a ladder.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4450.50/4455. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4460.75/4461.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) FADES from +14 to -29 in a world of mixed, bearish leaning sentiment (long edge).

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. All eyes on CPI. Oil supply expected low for a month or so,...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Fri 210910 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price is drifting up. No trades taken based on reward/risk. Two winners documented with a third trade open no targets hit yet.  

Day Session Analysis: The world flipped to a solid BULLISH sentiment. Stats point to shorts working better than longs, but both should be taken. Mindful that we’re opening in a congested area and likely will wait for Volume Profile entries. Friday (both sessions combined garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%).  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4495/4501.50. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4501.75/4503 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -57 to +64 with all major world markets soundly bullish (short...

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The Daily Market Forecast... Time to Sell?

For Thu 210909 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Gorgeous session with a short trade from 4509.50 running 24-points and still open. Only 3-ticks adverse move. Nice comeback from yesterday. 

Day Session Analysis: Bearish sentiment continues. Mixed signals. Long term outlook reverses quickly to HOLD. Looking to trade in either direction with good reward/risk.  Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today to start a ladder (leaning toward Bear Calls).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4509.50/4513.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4507.75/4509.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -29 to -57 in an increasingly bearish world...

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The Daily Market Forecast... Time to Sell?

For Wed 210908 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: TOUGH session with 3 takeable trades, all losers. Frequently these streaks are followed by wins in the day session.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment turns bearish. Mixed signals leaning SHORT. Long term outlook gets CAUTIOUS. Looking to JUMP on short signals given them extra room to run.  Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today (focusing on Bear Calls).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4517.50/4521. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and WITHIN the equilibrium 4519.75/4525.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +7 to -29 in a mildly bearish world (long edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.89, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.83. No tells from...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Tue 210907 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Drifting slowly down from the highs. Several congested levels. No trading over holiday.

Day Session Analysis: With no clear catalyst another melt-up or range-bound session is expected.  Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even.  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking (hard) for attractive SPXW premium today.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4528.75/4531.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4531.25/4534 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to +7 with Asia very bullish and the western world mildly bearish (no edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.89, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.90. ES/CL/JY all trending down suggesting JY may reverse up.

Catalysts: No economic releases. Nothing big...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Fri 210903 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trading modestly higher. One trade taken, still open, with two targets in the bag. 

Day Session Analysis: Drifting higher (almost daily) is unlikely to change without a big catalyst. Today’s Payrolls report is the key. A spike suggests the Fed may taper quicker, a drop suggests slower, and on target suggests we get over to Costco early for our Labor Day ribs before they’re out of stock. Not trading until that report is digested. Friday (both sessions combined garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%).  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to ADD to a nice credit spread ladder from yesterday.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4535/4540. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4532/4534 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 210902 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trading modestly higher, two takeable trades, one small loser and one still open with one target in the bag. 

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. Jobless Claims will set the early trend. Not trading until that report is digested. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to ladder credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4526.25/4528.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4526/4527.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +64 to +21 in a world of low volatility, mildly bullish sentiment (modest short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil...

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