Yesterday’s results: The suggested short didn’t trigger. No long was suggested. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5889.75 stop 5885.75. Short 5975.50 stop 5981.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -21 to +29 with most major world markets mildly Bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Barr @ 10:00, Cook @ 11:00 & Bowman @ 12:15. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. NVDA earnings after the close. 

Quick Tip: Rightness

We have an innate desire to be right. Being wrong is the equivalent of failure. But in trading this shouldn’t matter. We obviously can’t control the market or perfectly predict the future. The best we can do is decide in advance how much profit or loss we’ll accept. 

The late Mark Douglas, author of Trading in the Zone, said "When you achieve complete acceptance of the uncertainty of each edge and the uniqueness of each moment, your frustration with trading will end. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money."

This ...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5036.25 was only good for a 6-point scalp. The short level didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5895.50 stop 5589.75. Short 5975.50 stop 5981.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -21 to -14 with all major world markets neutral to Bearish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Goolsbee & NAHB Housing Market Index @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Behave Yourself

Imagine starting in trading without any historical information. No price charts. No patterns to study. No economic information. No annual reports. What would you use to determine if it was time to buy or sell? 

Thankfully, we needn’t dwell on that question at all. We have incredible historical information available that we can research for potential edge in our trading. However, the fact is that historical information is not a perfect predictor of the future. We can’t control the market. 

The future we can control is our behavior. The result of every new day, every new trade i...

Yesterday’s results: No trades triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5996.50 stop 5992.75. Short 5993.50 stop 5997.25 if price retraces up from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -50 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar.  

Quick Tip: Windfalls

Not nearly enough, but on occasion your trade becomes a windfall. Not so much in day trading but swing and position trading for sure. Maybe you bought NVDA 2 years ago and held on. Windfall!

Our swing trading team experienced a remarkable windfall trade last week. The strategy we used had to do with Unusual Options Activity. Simply put, these are huge bets on unlikely outcomes. The concept is that anyone who can bet that big must know some non-public information. 

Following the chart above you’ll see we uncovered a Smart Money bet on 10/21. $2.1M was bet on this $160 stock exceeding $200 in the next 3 weeks. You could have bought that option for $2.70 per ...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +50 to +71 with all major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: International Trade Balance @ 8:30. S&P Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. 10-year Bond Auction @ 13:00. Election Day. 

Important: Check your broker’s policy on day-trading margin today. TradeStation requires full margin for the next 3 days! What does that tell you about volatility expectations? 

Quick Tip: Losing Enough? 

A popular formula for determining your risk on any given trade is the Fixed Percentage Rule. You pick a percentage, usually 2% or less, of your trading account and that is the most you can risk on each trade.  

It works great because as your account grows your risk can increase giving you the opportunity for greater rewards. Conversely, if you’re in a drawdown you will be risking less until it ends. 

While that formula is fine...

Friday’s results: Buying 5908.50 on the breakout was only good for a 4-point scalp. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5867.75 stop 5864.00. Short 5864.75 stop 5868.50 if price retraces up from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +43 to -36 with most of the world mildly Bearish on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: FOMC Speakers; Logan @ 8:55, Kashkari @ 13:00. IMF Meeting starts. 

Quick Tip: Belief #1

Success at trading, at anything, is formulaic. No one stays successful at anything without a proven formula to follow. What’s yours? 

You may think it’s your trade plan. You may think you need the hottest strategies, the best broker, more risk capital, and better sources of information. All that surely helps but the foundation for your success starts within you. It’s your belief. 

Do you honestly believe you can become a top-notch trader? Or are you thinking of giving it a try? Trying isn’t enough to overcome the challenges of anything worthwhile. It’s a negat...

Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5701.50 stop 5695.75. Short 5740.75 if price trades below and retraces back with a stop at 5745.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -17 to +42 with most major world markets Bullish. China closed for a holiday week. 

Catalysts: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate @ 8:30. Fed’s Williams @ 9:00. Middle East crisis. 

Quick Tip: Skepticism

Being skeptical is good. It provides the questions you need answered to decide. In trading you should have a plan with rules of entry and exit. But not all plans perform in all market conditions. Being a little skeptical, asking yourself “Is this the market I should trade with this strategy right now?” is helpful. 

This happened to me yesterday, but my skepticism was late. I took a couple of trades, a loser and a breakeven, before I questioned the market condition compatibility. Following up on subsequent trades that I did not take proved that it definite...

Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5701.50 stop 5695.75. No short suggestion. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -40 to -17 with sentiment mixed leaning Bearish. China closed for a holiday week. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. S&P Services PMI Final @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI, Factory Orders, Fed’s Schmid @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 10:40. Middle East tension.

Quick Tip: Obscure Biases

Once you’re introduced to the psychological side of trading you find that we all have biases that affect the quality of our decision making. 

Some are well known like Outcome Bias (judging the trade to be good because it was a winner, not because you executed properly) and Recency Bias (the tendency to weigh recent events more than earlier events). 

I became fascinated with biases and wanted to search for obscure examples. ChatGPT helped. Here are a few that traders should be aware of to improve their performance. 

Bandwagon Effect: The tende...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5790.75 was only good for a 5-point scalp.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5701.50 stop 5695.75. No short suggestion. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +30 to -40 with sentiment mostly Bearish. China/HK closed for a holiday week. 

Catalysts: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change @ 8:15. Fed’s Hammack @ 9:00, Musalem @ 10:05, Bowman @ 11:00, Barkin @ 12:15. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Mideast conflict accelerates. 

Quick Tip: FOMO/DOMO

If you watched the Chinese stock market’s reaction to the huge stimulus program recently announced you’ll have experienced FOMO. The charts for the internet related stocks were parabolic for days with massive gaps up. 

Fear Of Missing Out, FOMO, is an emotional reaction traders have when seeing what they could have had. Price is gaining momentum and you’re on the sidelines. Impulsively, you break your entry rules and chase the trade. 

The problem with chasing is regardless of the outcome, win or lose, y...

Yesterday’s results: The short entry at 5808.00 triggered minutes before the close and failed. Day traders would pass on the trade, swing traders took the loss. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5790.75 stop 5785.00. No short suggestion. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -14 to +30 with sentiment mostly Bullish. China/HK closed for a holiday week. 

Catalysts: S&P Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI, Prices, Construction Spending & JOLTS @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 11:00, Cook @ 11:10.

Quick Tip: Biorhythms

I’m not sure if there is truth to the biorhythm theory that we are affected by three cycles: physical, emotional, and intellectual. But there is no question our performance at just about anything cycles. Winning, losing, flatlining. 

I watched the Detroit Lions quarterback, Jared Goff set a record yesterday completing ALL of his 18 passes in a rout over the Seattle Seahawks. Last week he performed “OK” at best. 

Trading is considered a performance activity like at...