Trade Aptitude

day trading futures trade planning Apr 23, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5032.50 stop 5027.25. Short 5176.00 stop 5181.75.

Monday’s results: The buy at 5004.75 missed filling by 1.25 points and ran 60+ points to the short at 5070.50, which only offered a 6+ point scalp.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +57 to +43 as the world remains mildly Bullish. Positive note: the UK’s FTSE 100 index hit a record high.

Catalysts: Services & MFG PMI Flash @ 9:45. New Home Sales & Richmond Fed MFG Index @ 10:00. 2-Year Treasury auction @ 13:01. 40% of the S&P 500 will report earnings this week.

Quick Tip: Wiggle Room

The strategy that uncovers the turning points in this blog is called Volume Profile. It uses volume at price, not in time, to determine fair value. How traders buy and sell around these high-volume price levels will vary based on their own risk tolerance and other indicators they may use for...

Trade Aptitude

technical analysis trade planning Apr 22, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5004.75 stop 5000.25. Short 5070.50 stop 5075.75.

Friday’s results: Neither trade triggered.

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -57 to +57 with all major world markets (except China) firmly Bullish.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar.

Quick Tip: Measured Moves

Regardless of the time interval charts you trade, you’ll notice that price tends to move in impulses and corrections. The impulse is in the direction of the trend. The correction is the minor countertrend move.

Get in the habit of looking to the left on your trading chart and measuring these impulses and corrections. Frequently you’ll see patterns that repeat.

For example, an 8-point move higher, followed by a 3-point move lower, then a 9 point move higher, followed by a 4-point move lower, etc. These moves are not always precisely the same but have an uncanny way...

Trade Aptitude

trade planning Apr 19, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 4980.00 stop 4974.75. Short 5070.50 stop 5075.75.

Thursday’s results: Neither trade triggered.

The World Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from +43 to -57 with all major world markets firmly Bearish on rising volatility.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Persistent hawkish Fed remarks. Middle East tension.

Quick Tip: Test More

Imagine that your strategy is working just fine. You finally found your trading “rhythm.” Your account is growing and you’re starting to take a paycheck (which you should, make those gains tangible).

“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” repeats in your thoughts. Wrong this time. Markets change, strategies lose steam, you should constantly be looking to improve your results.

How? Testing. Don’t change anything that is working, but research potential changes. Study your...

Trade Aptitude

trade planning Apr 18, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5037.50 stop 5033.75. Short 5176.00 stop 5181.75.

Wednesday’s results: Buying 5046.75 missed filling by one tick and ran for 50 points.

The World Index: (+100/-100) improves from +36 to +43 with all major world markets modestly Bullish on low volatility.

Catalysts: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Business Index @ 8:30. Fed’s Bowman & Williams @ 9:05/9:15, Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 11:00, Collins @ 12:00.

Quick Tip: Limit/Market

The buy yesterday missed by one tick. Heartbreaker.

I recall a while back one of the traders on our team told me didn’t limit himself to “precision” entries like I did. If he wanted in a trade he used a market order.

Entries are either limit or market. Limits are precise. You get the exact price you wanted. The downside is you may not get filled. Market orders always...

Trade Aptitude

trade planning Apr 17, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5046.75 stop 5042.75. Short 5176.00 stop 5181.75.

Tuesday’s results: Neither trade triggered. The levels remain on the chart.

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -79 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish.

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Beige Book @ 14:00. Maybe the IMF meetings.

Quick Tip: Change of Plan

Your trade plan probably started out simple. You had rules for entry, exit, risk, position size, candidate selection, and some filters for changing market conditions. The historical performance was positive. Great start.

Once you started live trading you likely encountered trade setups that didn’t make sense at the time. What to do? Grit your teeth and follow the rules or pass on the trade?

You feel compelled to be a rule-based trader, but your growing experience and skill level is telling you to not take the...

Trade Aptitude

personal development psychology trade planning Apr 16, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5046.75 stop 5042.75. Short 5176.00 stop 5181.75.

Monday’s results: Buying 5169.50 ran for 16 points.

The World Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from +24 to -79 with all major world markets very Bearish on higher volatility, S&P Futures up slightly. Contrarian alert: historically longs outperform at this level.

Catalysts: Housing Starts & Permits @ 8:30. Fed’s Jefferson @ 9:00. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Fed’s Williams @ 12:30, Barkin @ 13:00, Powell @ 13:15.

Quick Tip: Consistency

Having taught over 4000 traders in the past 16 years the goal I’ve heard most often is the desire for consistent profitability.

You know what profitability is but how do you define consistency in trading? Time certainly enters the definition. Short term traders would likely strive for weekly profitability. Long-term traders look to monthly, quarterly, or...

Trade Aptitude

options stock market swing trading trade planning Apr 11, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5113.75 stop 5109.25. Short 5254.25 stop 5258.00.

Wednesday’s results: The buy level at 5231.50 was filtered out during the CPI news release volatility.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +21 to -29 with most major world markets mildly Bearish or flat.

Catalysts: ECB Monetary Policy @ 8:15. PPI & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. ECB Press Conference, Fed’s Williams @ 8:45, Barkin @ 10:00, Collins @ 12:00, Bostic @ 13:30.

Quick Tip: Best Swing Trades

If you’re a swing trader of stocks or options you probably have some technical analysis rules for entry and exit. There are countless indicators and methods that work just fine.

One “edge” you might not have optimized yet is your stock/option selection method. Many traders will simply look for the high-volume candidates with appropriate volatility. That’s not enough. ...

Trade Aptitude

risk management trade planning Apr 10, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5236.25 stop 5231.50. Short 5296.25 stop 5300.75 (filtered out for CPI announcement).

Tuesday’s results: Buying 5213.00 bounced for 6 points before stopping out one tick from the day session low.

The World Index: (+100/-100) gains from +7 to +21 with most major world markets leaning Bullish on low volatility.

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Fed’s Bowman @ 8:45. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 12:45. FOMC Minutes @ 14:00.

Quick Tip: Stop Trading?

hemAll trading strategies have drawdowns (a protracted losing streak). The challenge is trading through them. You can’t stop thinking that it may “never come back” or churn for an extended period. Then you get FOMO and think if you stop now it will roar back and you’ll miss the gain. Obviously, these thoughts are destructive. Don’t go there.

What you...

Trade Aptitude

personal development psychology trade planning Apr 09, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5213.00 stop 5208.50. Short 5296.25 stop 5300.75.

Monday's Results: Neither trade triggered and remain on the chart.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to +7 with most major world markets flat or modestly Bullish.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar today.

Quick Tip: Think like a CEO.

You should manage your trading like a business. Even if you’re employed, think of it as a side business. You’re unlikely to have employees and that means you need to wear different “hats” to be successful. You’re the CEO, CFO, and Trader.

The CEO creates the vision then ensures it becomes a reality. He is the author of the trading plan, documentation, and review processes. He is not mired in day-to-day performance. His focus is on long term growth and goal attainment. Spend some time developing a written vision statement and goals...

Trade Aptitude

day trading futures options stock market trade planning Apr 08, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5184.25 stop 5179.00. Short 5296.25 stop 5300.75.

Friday's Results: No trades triggered.

The World Index: (+100/-100) gains from -50 to +14 with most major world markets flat or modestly Bullish.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar today.

Quick Tip: Morning Routine

Preparing for your trading day is critical. You should have a routine you follow that includes the following:

Review Market News: Start by scanning major financial news outlets for any overnight developments that could impact the market. This includes economic data releases, geopolitical events, key corporate earnings reports, and news specific to the contracts you trade.

Check Futures and Overseas Markets: Assess how global markets are performing by checking futures contracts for major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq. Also, review how overseas markets, particularly in Asia and...

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