Trade Aptitude

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 5046.75 stop 5042.75. No great shorts today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from +6 to +69 with all major world markets (except India) firmly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Flash MFG/Services PMI @ 9:45. Existing Home Sales & Fed’s Jefferson @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. NVDA sparks worldwide rally in equities. 

Quick Tip: Hybrid Trading

There isn’t only “one way” to trade successfully. There are countless strategies and methods that can be profitable. You need to find what resonates with your trading psychology, style, and risk tolerance. 

For example, consider two popular styles of trading: trend following and mean reversion. They both can be very profitable...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4972.75 only offered a 6.50-point bounce. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4926.00 stop 4920.75. Short 5026.50 stop 5031.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) inches up from zero to +6 in a world of mixed sentiment and rising volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Bowman @ 13:00. FOMC Meeting Minutes @ 14:00. NVDA after the bell.

Quick Tip: Why Multi-Strat?

If you read this blog daily you know that our team trades live daily in a multi-strat environment. Focusing on multiple strategies is not for everyone. In fact, few of our team trade all the strategies. 

So why know how to trade them? 

1. Diversity. Markets change character. They’re either trending or not, volatile, or not. No single strategy works well in all those conditions. Having the choice...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 5026.00 stopped out. Shorting 5022.50 on the retracement ran for 9.75 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4972.75 stop 4969.25. Short 5026.50 stop 5031.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +67 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: Nothing important on the economic calendar 

Quick Tip: Smart Money

Who are your “Smart Money” Connections? 

Most traders don’t have even onelet alone many. 

For the longest time, I didn’t either. And now that I have many, I wouldn’t trade any other way. Following “Smart Money” trades is absolutely the best edge I’ve found in 25 years of trading. 

And I want to share this with you!

You’ll see all...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4972.75 caught the bottom of the session and ran for 41.50 points at the close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4998.00 stop 4994.25. Short 5040.25 stop 5045.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +36 to +29 with most major world markets Bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Empire State MFG Index, Philly Fed MFG Index, Import Prices @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories, Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Waller @ 13:15. 

Quick Tip: No Fear

Looking at the chart above how price was approaching the buy level you might feel like you were stepping in front of a freight train. Confidence required. 

Of course, since you knew the entry well beforehand a set/forget order would have been a good solution...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 5013.50 was filtered out during the CPI release. The Short didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4972.75 stop 4969.25. Short 5040.50 stop 5045.25.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from -25 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Goolsbee speaks @ 9:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30

Quick Tip: Swiss Army Knife 2

If you didn’t read yesterday’s blog it would be helpful to do it now. Here’s a link. 

We like Bollinger Bands as a technical indicator because they display most of the information we need to understand market state: trend and volatility. 

In reading his book, Bollinger on Bollinger Bands, I found a pearl of trading wisdom that stuck with me, and I use all the time....

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (Entries filtered out during CPI release): 

Buy 5013.50 stop 5009.75. Short 5040.50 stop 5045.25.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -6 to -25 with most major open world markets Bearish.

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: Swiss Army Knife?

While we can’t predict the future exactly we can approximate the future. 

Take price action for example. Price is either: 

1. Trending and volatile.

2. Trending and quiet.

3. Range-bound and volatile.

4. Range-bound and quiet. 

A complete trade plan would include strategies that prefer one of these market conditions so you can choose which has more edge at the time. 

Knowing the present condition is easy, the challenge becomes which condition is next? When will it change

...

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Trade Aptitude

trade planning Feb 12, 2024

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 5013.50 stop 5009.75. Short 5010.50 stop 5014.25 if price drops below and retraces to entry. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from zero to -6 with the larger Asian markets closed. 

Catalysts: Fed speakers @ 9:20 & 12:00. Federal Budget Balance @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Equity Curves

Are you plotting your strategy’s equity curve? If not, get started. It’s a modest amount of record keeping, and it will give you confidence and warn you to drawdowns and restarts. 

It’s important that the equity curve represents all trades your strategy teed up, not just the ones you took. Knowing the difference between your results (behavior) and what you should have done is critical to improving your results. 

Our...

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Trade Aptitude

 

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. The levels stay on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4926.00 stop 4920.75. Short 4987.00 stop 4992.75.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +19 to -13 with most major world markets modestly Bearish. 

Catalysts: Trade Balance @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed-speak @ 11:00, 12:30, and 14:00. 10-year Bond Auction @ 13:01. 

Quick Tip: Watch Bonds

Of all the economic information traders watch for directional clues the bond auctions are the rising stars. Bloomberg reported Citigroup findings that the S&P 500 index has moved 1% in either direction on auction days recently. 

How can you use this data? 

Consider adjusting your entry and exit rules. Expecting a big move and seeing it manifest allows you to...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. The levels stay on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4926.00 stop 4920.75. Short 4987.00 stop 4992.75.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +25 to +19 with mixed sentiment and increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Mester @ 12:00. Plenty of earnings. 

Quick Tip: Sequencing 

If trading is 80% psychological that leaves 20% to the edge your strategy has. We really don’t know if the 80% figure is accurate but you’ll hear a big number like that from many skilled traders and coaches. Regardless the accuracy, how we behave as traders is vitally important. 

Back when racquetball was popular I was a competitive player and found a coach to improve my performance. Here’s the dialog from “lesson one.” 

...

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