Consistency

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One Tough Lesson by Trade Aptitude

psychology Dec 03, 2024

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered, and they remain on the chart today.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 6017.25 stop 6012.25. Short 6013.00 stop 6018.00 if price retraces up from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +14 to +57 with all major world markets Bullish on increasing volatility. The S&P Futures are not participating yet. 

Catalysts: JOLTS @ 10:00. Fed’s Kugler @ 12:35, Goolsbee @ 3:45. 

Quick Tip: One Tough Lesson

If you’re a discretionary trader intuitively making entry and exit decisions and you’re successful, congratulations! You are a rare breed. It’s not that discretionary trading doesn’t work, it’s that to succeed takes years to hone your skills. 

This leaves rule-based trading as the best alternative for developing trading skills and success for the vast majority. It seems so simple. Find a proven strategy with edge. Follow the...

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Abundance Mindset by Trade Aptitude

psychology trade planning Dec 02, 2024

Friday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered and they remain on the chart today.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 6017.25 stop 6012.25. Short 6013.00 stop 6018.00 if price retraces up from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -7 to +14 with most major world markets mildly Bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: S&P Global MFG PMI Final @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI & Prices @ 10:00. Fed’s Waller @ 15:15 and Williams @ 16:30. 

Quick Tip: Abundance Mindset

You probably noticed that the Turning Points shared here frequently don’t trigger. Sometimes a few days can go by without a trade. 

You may be thinking, “This is not enough action for me.” 

On the contrary, this strategy provides far more setups than are freely shared, we’re just trying to get acquainted! Add in the reversal and momentum strategies and there are dozens of opportunities every day in our live futures...

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Being Grateful by Trade Aptitude

Yesterday’s results: No suggestions offered.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No great levels today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -29 to -7 with China/HK the only Bulls. 

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, Trade Balance @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. PCE, Personal Income/Spending, Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: Being Grateful

Thanksgiving is the holiday that reminds all of us to practice gratitude. However, plenty of research has been done that proves we should be grateful more often. Like daily. 

The list of benefits is long and in all cases will improve your trading performance!

1. Reduced anxiety.

2. Improves your ability to handle stress.

3. Increase happiness. 

4. Improve relationships. 

5. Boost productivity and goal achievement. 

6. Increase positive emotions. 

That’s an...

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Rightness by Trade Aptitude

Yesterday’s results: The suggested short didn’t trigger. No long was suggested. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5889.75 stop 5885.75. Short 5975.50 stop 5981.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -21 to +29 with most major world markets mildly Bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Barr @ 10:00, Cook @ 11:00 & Bowman @ 12:15. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. NVDA earnings after the close. 

Quick Tip: Rightness

We have an innate desire to be right. Being wrong is the equivalent of failure. But in trading this shouldn’t matter. We obviously can’t control the market or perfectly predict the future. The best we can do is decide in advance how much profit or loss we’ll accept. 

The late Mark Douglas, author of Trading in the Zone, said "When you achieve complete acceptance of the uncertainty of each edge and the uniqueness of each moment,...

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Behave Yourself by Trade Aptitude

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5036.25 was only good for a 6-point scalp. The short level didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5895.50 stop 5589.75. Short 5975.50 stop 5981.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -21 to -14 with all major world markets neutral to Bearish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Goolsbee & NAHB Housing Market Index @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Behave Yourself

Imagine starting in trading without any historical information. No price charts. No patterns to study. No economic information. No annual reports. What would you use to determine if it was time to buy or sell? 

Thankfully, we needn’t dwell on that question at all. We have incredible historical information available that we can research for potential edge in our trading. However, the fact is that historical information is not a perfect predictor of the future. We can’t...

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Windfalls by Trade Aptitude

Yesterday’s results: No trades triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5996.50 stop 5992.75. Short 5993.50 stop 5997.25 if price retraces up from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -50 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar.  

Quick Tip: Windfalls

Not nearly enough, but on occasion your trade becomes a windfall. Not so much in day trading but swing and position trading for sure. Maybe you bought NVDA 2 years ago and held on. Windfall!

Our swing trading team experienced a remarkable windfall trade last week. The strategy we used had to do with Unusual Options Activity. Simply put, these are huge bets on unlikely outcomes. The concept is that anyone who can bet that big must know some non-public information. 

Following the chart above you’ll see we uncovered a Smart Money bet on 10/21. $2.1M was bet on this $160...

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Losing Enough? by Trade Aptitude

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +50 to +71 with all major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: International Trade Balance @ 8:30. S&P Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. 10-year Bond Auction @ 13:00. Election Day. 

Important: Check your broker’s policy on day-trading margin today. TradeStation requires full margin for the next 3 days! What does that tell you about volatility expectations? 

Quick Tip: Losing Enough? 

A popular formula for determining your risk on any given trade is the Fixed Percentage Rule. You pick a percentage, usually 2% or less, of your trading account and that is the most you can risk on each trade.  

It works great because as your account grows your risk can increase giving you the opportunity for greater...

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Abundance by Trade Aptitude

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Belief #1 by Trade Aptitude

Friday’s results: Buying 5908.50 on the breakout was only good for a 4-point scalp. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5867.75 stop 5864.00. Short 5864.75 stop 5868.50 if price retraces up from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +43 to -36 with most of the world mildly Bearish on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: FOMC Speakers; Logan @ 8:55, Kashkari @ 13:00. IMF Meeting starts. 

Quick Tip: Belief #1

Success at trading, at anything, is formulaic. No one stays successful at anything without a proven formula to follow. What’s yours? 

You may think it’s your trade plan. You may think you need the hottest strategies, the best broker, more risk capital, and better sources of information. All that surely helps but the foundation for your success starts within you. It’s your belief. 

Do you honestly believe you can become a top-notch trader? Or are you thinking of giving it a...

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