Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +7 to +14 with sentiment mixed and volatility low.

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30.   

Quick Tip: Re-Starting

When you start trading you’re obviously attracted to the potential gains and entrepreneurial freedom from traditional work. But trading is not easy to master and losing in the beginning is normal. This is why learning to trade in simulation mode makes sense. 

Of course, simulated trading can only teach you execution. It doesn’t address the psychological challenges of winning, losing, being right, and being wrong. Still, it’s the best “first step.”

Fast forward to once you’re a profitable trader. You’ve experienced winning and losing but you’ve built the confidence to manage the losing streaks because they’ve come and gone before. 

Here’s a usually tough decision that can be hugely beneficial: During or ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Friday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +36 to -36 with most major world markets Bearish. The U.S. deviates with a strong bullish Globex session so far. 

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Fed’s Powell @ 12:00, Daly @ 4:35. Goldman Sachs gapping up on earnings. Trump presidency looks more likely. 

Quick Tip: Excursions

I’ve been asked a few times… “Why do you document the trade results with the maximum that price moved, since you can’t exit there anyway?”

Two data points you should keep for every trade, taken in real time or not, are Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE, how far price went in your favor) and Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE, how far price went against you). 

As your data set grows you’ll have hard evidence to explore different exit strategies. This review process often uncovers edges in your t...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -7 to +36 with most major world markets mildly Bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Retail Sales @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories & Fed’s Barkin @ 10:00. Fed’s Collins @ 11:40, Logan & Kugler @ 13:00. 20-year Bond Auction @ 13:00. Fed’s Musalem @ 13:20, Goolsbee @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Time to Change?

All traders experience losing streaks and drawdowns in their trading account. Market conditions change. Some strategies stop working and others start working. It can appear cyclical.

Handling this is tricky. One voice in your head says, “stay the course, it’ll come back.” The other voice says, “dump this strategy and find one that is working.” 

But it doesn’t have to be a black or white decision. You can reduce your position size to the bare minimum or trade in simulation. Examining your equity curve for cl...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Friday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -14 to +57 with all major world markets Bullish.  

Catalysts: Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI, MFG Prices & Construction Spending @10:00

Quick Tip: When to Stop

All trading strategies have drawdowns (a protracted losing streak). The challenge is trading through it. You can’t stop thinking that it may “never come back” or churn for an extended period. Or you could get FOMO and think if you stop now it will roar back and you’ll miss the gain. Obviously, these thoughts are destructive. Don’t go there. 

What you should do is have Stop-n-start rules to follow. These are rules that tell you when to stop trading the strategy and when, if ever, to start up again. This will take the emotion out of the process. Apply these rules to the performance of individual strategies, not your whole trading account. 

Here’s an example of a rule set...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -29 to -14 with sentiment mixed on varying volatility, leaning Bearish. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Fed’s Williams @ 12:05. 

Quick Tip: Good Question

Think for a moment before you answer this seemingly simple question. Do you find it harder to take a loss or a profit? 

The answer says a lot about your trade plan, style, trading psychology, and what you need to work on. 

If your answer was a loss, then your risk management plan needs help. You’re probably risking too much. You might be trading the wrong strategy, one with more losers than winners like trend following. Your personality might be the problem if you get annoyed being wrong (trading is about probabilities, not certainties). 

If your answer was a profit, then your risk management is fine, but your profit target...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: Price whipsawed the volume level stopping out both trades.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -21 to -43 with most major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Williams @ 13:45. Beige Book @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Waiting 

I grew up in Michigan. A local saying about the weather was “Wait a day, it’ll change.” Now I live in Florida where during the rainy season you can drop your waiting time to an hour!

Markets are very similar. They trend up or down and then move sideways. Back and forth. Patience pays off and impulsivity gets hammered. 

This cyclicality applies to your strategy performance too. You’ll have winning streaks, flat periods, and losing streaks. Given this reality you need rules to manage each condition to prosper, even survive. 

Here’s an example: The volume levels suggested here are one component of an overall strategy th...