Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5781.50 stop 5775.75. No short level today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from +7 to +86 with all major world markets very Bullish on China’s commitment to stimulus. 

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims & Durable Goods, @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Powell speaks (pre-recorded) @ 9:20. Yellen speaks @ 11:15. Multiple other Fed speakers all day. 

Quick Tip: Motivation

To succeed in trading (actually, anything in life) you must be motivated. There will always be setbacks, frustrations, losses, failures, and rejections. If you’re not motivated you won’t persist. You’ll quit and carry that psychological “loss” with you. Collect enough of those and you’ll be miserable. 

The answer is to get and stay motivated. But how? Find your unsatisfied need. You don’t require motivation for anything that you’re already satisfied with. You don’t even think about it. If you have enough money for acce...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5775.50 was only good for a 5-point bounce if filled. The short idea never triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5755.75 stop 5752.25. No short level today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +71 to +7 with sentiment mixed on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: New Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Kugler @ 16:00. 

Quick Tip: Synergy

In Stephen Covey’s bestseller, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, the 6th habit is Synergize. The concept is that two (or more) things working together produce a result that is better than the sum. 

Think about this: If everyone agreed with you about the subject at hand, would there ever be any improvement to the subject (process, strategy, plan, etc.)? No change, no synergy.  

That is precisely why you should embrace disagreement… from a constructive viewpoint. Different opinions and outlooks, when approached properly can lead to synergistic results. 

No one knows it all. ...

Friday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5705.75 stop 5700.00. No short level today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +7 with sentiment mixed and volatility low. 

Catalysts: S&P Flash MFG/Services PMI @ 9:45. Fed’s Bostic @ 8:00, Goolsbee @ 10:15, Kashkari @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Expectations 

“What are you struggling with?” was the question I asked a group of traders. One woman said she had expectation challenges. She felt she needed to acknowledge that every trade won't be a home run, or “10 to 1” as she phrased it. 

I respect her self-awareness. Expectations is not a commonly voiced trading challenge. But it is real. You can expect too much and foster disappointment. You can expect too little and minimize your profits. Neither view is healthy for your ultimate results. 

If you are documenting all the trades of your strategies (taken or not) then you will have hard evidence and know what to expect most of the time. The challenge ...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5422.25 just missed picking the bottom of a wild session, offering a 4.75-point scalp before stopping out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5484.75 stop 5480.75. Short 5656.25 stop 5660.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -21 to +57 with most major world markets firmly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PPI, Jobless Claims @ 8:30. 30-year bond auction @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Self-Serving Bias

Trading is more psychological than mathematical. Although the quants might disagree, if you study other successful traders you’ll see they do agree. 

Aside from our human problems about “winning is good, losing is bad” and “being right is good, being wrong is bad,” we have biases to contend with. There are plenty. 

One bias I discovered recently while reading Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions by Annie Duke, arguably the best tournament poker female who ever played, is Self-Serving Bias. 

Simply put this bias has us giving credit to our skills when w...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -7 to +29 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims, Trade Balance @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @15:30. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you didn’t read the last three blog posts now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable for traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #3: Three “Ps”

If you played poker once a month and your opponents played every day, who is more likely to win? The same applies to golf, tennis, chess, and trading. 

While we don’t have a single opponent in trading we do have someone on the other side of our trade betting we’re wrong. Might they be a better trader? 

Practice, practice, practice. The key to excelling at anything you do is repetition. And if you want to turbocharge your practice, approach it with the intent of teaching it. 

Here’s some t...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to -7 with Asia Bearish and Europe mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Waiting on NVDA earnings after the close. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you didn’t read the last two blog posts now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable for traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #3: Think Long Term

Long term thinking doesn’t mean you should have a trade plan that only takes long term trades. It means the results in the short term are not relevant. What is relevant is your overall success. 

This is a tough pill to swallow for the short term trader. Some have daily or weekly income goals. They’re thinking short term. But how do they handle a few losing days or weeks in a row? 

A great analogy comes from poker champion Bobby Baldwin. He said “Poker is one continuous game” which goes on forever and star...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +21 to +14 with sentiment mixed and volatility lower. 

Catalysts: S&P Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence & Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you didn’t read yesterday’s blog now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable to traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #2 Big Wins Vanish

Trading results, just like poker results, cycle between winning streaks, losing streaks, and flat periods where wins and loses cancel each other out. Let’s focus on winning streaks today. 

Whether it’s one monster winning trade or a series of winning trades, you’ll likely start to feel invincible. It will last for a period in which you won’t even think about the losing streaks or flat periods when it took all the courage you had to continue trading. You’ll feel calm, relaxed, and arrive at a state that you thin...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +36 to +21 with sentiment mixed. 

Catalysts: Durable Goods orders @ 8:30.  Dallas Fed MFG Index @ 10:30. 

Welcome to Poker Week! 

There are plenty of similarities between trading and poker. For example, both require tremendous discipline and superb risk management. 

One excellent book every trader should read is Zen and the Art of Poker by Larry Phillips. This week’s blog is dedicated to 5 key lessons from the book. Enjoy!

Lesson #1: Fold More Often

The first thing you’ll learn to become a winning poker player is this: Fold more often. Wait for the best cards. Be patient. 

Doesn’t sound too exciting, does it? In fact, most gamblers would run for the door looking for action elsewhere. 

Successful trading, like poker, isn’t about excitement. It’s about winning over the long haul. 

A while back my friend ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +43 to +36 with a most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Powell & New Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 12:30, 13:45, 14:15. 

Quick Tip: Drop the Ego

One of the hardest transitions to make as a trader is the reframing of your belief about winning and losing. We were raised defining winning as good and losing as bad. Now we must change that belief.

Mark Douglas, author of two books on trading psychology said, “When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” 

Curtis Faith, one of the original Turtle Traders and author of Way of the Turtle, summed it up succinctly: “Winning traders think in the present time and avoid thinking too much about the future. Being right (winning) and being wrong (l...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +7 to +14 with sentiment mixed and volatility low.

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30.   

Quick Tip: Re-Starting

When you start trading you’re obviously attracted to the potential gains and entrepreneurial freedom from traditional work. But trading is not easy to master and losing in the beginning is normal. This is why learning to trade in simulation mode makes sense. 

Of course, simulated trading can only teach you execution. It doesn’t address the psychological challenges of winning, losing, being right, and being wrong. Still, it’s the best “first step.”

Fast forward to once you’re a profitable trader. You’ve experienced winning and losing but you’ve built the confidence to manage the losing streaks because they’ve come and gone before. 

Here’s a usually tough decision that can be hugely beneficial: During or ...