Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to -7 with Asia Bearish and Europe mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Waiting on NVDA earnings after the close. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you didn’t read the last two blog posts now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable for traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #3: Think Long Term

Long term thinking doesn’t mean you should have a trade plan that only takes long term trades. It means the results in the short term are not relevant. What is relevant is your overall success. 

This is a tough pill to swallow for the short term trader. Some have daily or weekly income goals. They’re thinking short term. But how do they handle a few losing days or weeks in a row? 

A great analogy comes from poker champion Bobby Baldwin. He said “Poker is one continuous game” which goes on forever and star...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +21 to +14 with sentiment mixed and volatility lower. 

Catalysts: S&P Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence & Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you didn’t read yesterday’s blog now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable to traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #2 Big Wins Vanish

Trading results, just like poker results, cycle between winning streaks, losing streaks, and flat periods where wins and loses cancel each other out. Let’s focus on winning streaks today. 

Whether it’s one monster winning trade or a series of winning trades, you’ll likely start to feel invincible. It will last for a period in which you won’t even think about the losing streaks or flat periods when it took all the courage you had to continue trading. You’ll feel calm, relaxed, and arrive at a state that you thin...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +36 to +21 with sentiment mixed. 

Catalysts: Durable Goods orders @ 8:30.  Dallas Fed MFG Index @ 10:30. 

Welcome to Poker Week! 

There are plenty of similarities between trading and poker. For example, both require tremendous discipline and superb risk management. 

One excellent book every trader should read is Zen and the Art of Poker by Larry Phillips. This week’s blog is dedicated to 5 key lessons from the book. Enjoy!

Lesson #1: Fold More Often

The first thing you’ll learn to become a winning poker player is this: Fold more often. Wait for the best cards. Be patient. 

Doesn’t sound too exciting, does it? In fact, most gamblers would run for the door looking for action elsewhere. 

Successful trading, like poker, isn’t about excitement. It’s about winning over the long haul. 

A while back my friend ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +43 to +36 with a most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Powell & New Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 12:30, 13:45, 14:15. 

Quick Tip: Drop the Ego

One of the hardest transitions to make as a trader is the reframing of your belief about winning and losing. We were raised defining winning as good and losing as bad. Now we must change that belief.

Mark Douglas, author of two books on trading psychology said, “When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” 

Curtis Faith, one of the original Turtle Traders and author of Way of the Turtle, summed it up succinctly: “Winning traders think in the present time and avoid thinking too much about the future. Being right (winning) and being wrong (l...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +7 to +14 with sentiment mixed and volatility low.

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30.   

Quick Tip: Re-Starting

When you start trading you’re obviously attracted to the potential gains and entrepreneurial freedom from traditional work. But trading is not easy to master and losing in the beginning is normal. This is why learning to trade in simulation mode makes sense. 

Of course, simulated trading can only teach you execution. It doesn’t address the psychological challenges of winning, losing, being right, and being wrong. Still, it’s the best “first step.”

Fast forward to once you’re a profitable trader. You’ve experienced winning and losing but you’ve built the confidence to manage the losing streaks because they’ve come and gone before. 

Here’s a usually tough decision that can be hugely beneficial: During or ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +79 to -50 with renewed selling and sticky volatility. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. 30-Year Bond Auction @ 13:00. Fed’s Barkin @ 15:00. 

Quick Tip: Try Waiting 

Successful trading skills are very different in many cases than how we’ve been conditioned to believe and behave. We were all taught to work hard and smart to control the outcome of our efforts. In trading we cannot control whether we win or lose but we can control how much we lose. 

Some market conditions are more difficult than others to even control the losses! What’s the solution? 

Here’s some advice from arguably one of the best traders in history, Jim Rogers. 

He said “I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I must do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime."

Who was taught this concept growing up? Did Dad ever say, “Do nothing?” Your teacher? Your bos...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points:This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -7 to +79 with all thoughts of the correction vanishing. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Collins @ 12:00. 10-Year Bond Auction @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Change It

Popular trader psychologist and author Brett Steenbarger said, “The greatest enemy of change is routine.” 

I had to stop and think about this. Over the years I’ve learned that routines are healthy. They are habits and assuming they’re good for you, they’re important to have. I started a morning routine, a pre-trading routine, a midday routine, and a nighttime routine. 

So now I’m being advised to change all that? 

Not at all. Steenbarger was referring to the time you spend between your routines, in particular while trading. The pre-trading routine is important. Keep it. 

But don’t go on autopilot while trading. Be aware of changing market conditions. Listen to divergent viewpoints. Zoom out to the...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -100 to -7 with mixed world sentiment on stabler volatility. Tokyo +10%. 

Catalysts: Trade Balance @ 8:30. Dip buyers testing the water. 

Quick Tip: See the Big Picture

Traders can often get caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations of the market, much like people who live their lives without pausing to reflect. 

In Larry Wilson’s book, Play to Win: Choosing Growth Over Fear in Work and Life, he emphasizes the importance of stepping back and seeing the bigger picture to make better-informed decisions. 

For day traders, this means taking a break from the extreme volatility yesterday and understanding the cause(s). 

Wilson also teaches us about the two life orientations that you must choose between.

1. Play to win.

2. Playing not to lose. 

What’s the difference? 

People who have a positive attitude packed with a view of abundant opportunities that are willing to overc...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +86 to -50 with all major world markets Bearish except the USA with tech leading the way. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI and Construction Spending @ 10:00. AAPL & AMZN earnings after the bell. 

Quick Tip: Three Facts

Most of your success in trading will come from your ability to manage your psychology about winning and losing and being right or wrong. Unfortunately, we’ve all been raised to believe that winning is good, losing is bad, being right is good, being wrong is bad. The market is different. 

One of my favorite books on trading is Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van Tharp. He gets this game from a psychological perspective really well. 

Here are three facts about trading success he uncovered in his research of successful traders/investors. They all had: 

1. Controlled risk. 

2. Win rates of 35% to 50% but winning...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -7 to +86 with all major world markets strongly Bullish. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Change @ 8:15. Employment Cost Index @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement @ 14:00, Press Conference @ 14:30. META reports after the close. BOJ raises rates.

Quick Tip: Disqualifying 

Traditional work (your job) makes becoming a winning trader difficult. Not because of the time devotion, but because it instills a belief that is NOT helpful in trading. 

What is it? Always doing something. Can you imagine if you were caught doing nothing and told the boss “Now is not a good time to be working on this.” Or “Wednesdays are difficult days to get anything done, so I’m going to loaf.” 

In trading NOT entering a trade is not only OK it’s sometimes the smart decision. Today is FOMC day. Volatility will be high for an hour or so. Ther...