Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4407.50 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4387.00 stop 4382.25. Short 4434.25 stop 4438.50.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) rises from +21 to +29 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: International Trade @8:30. Powell speaks @ 9:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: Change Your Mind

Part of your morning routine should be researching the markets you trade for trends, volatility, and catalysts in the upcoming session. You want context. 

The other day all the evidence pointed to a down S&P. I was convinced short was the first signal our strategies would offer. The market opened and strong buying momentum emerged. The first signal offered was long and without further consideration I took the trade. Small winner...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered. The same levels remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4357.50 stop 4353.25. Short 4407.50 stop 4410.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) rises from -50 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: Durable Goods @8:30. Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales & Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: 5 Fears

I follow a high-performance coach, Brendon Burchard, and his message yesterday was about “The 4 Types of Fear.” 

In trading, we have 5 types of fear! Recognizing you’re susceptible to them is the first step to a solution. 

Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) – you can’t tolerate watching a winning trade from the sidelines. This breeds...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4386.75 picked the bottom of the session and bounced 4 times running for 20.75 points to the next level. Feel better about the win by donating a slice to my preferred charity, the Alzheimer’s Association. Click here.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4357.50 stop 4353.25. Short 4407.50 stop 4410.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) rises from -71 to -50 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Maybe Wagner will change its mind again and head back to Moscow.  

Quick Tip: Trade Analysis

What a day! Any time your reversal strategy picks the top and the bottom you gotta feel confident in your research and plan. 

The high-volume level at 4386.75 is what we call a “tertiary” level....

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered. Both remain on the chart for today.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4386.75 stop 4382.00. Short 4434.25 stop 4489.50. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS rises from -79 to -71 with all major world markets firmly Bearish. 

Catalysts: PMI MFG/Services Flash @ 9:45. 

Quick Tip: Your Unsatisfied Need.

To succeed in trading (actually, anything in life) you must be highly motivated. 

Why? Because there will always be setbacks, frustrations, losses, and failures. If you’re not motivated you won’t persist. You’ll quit and carry that psychological “loss” with you. Collect enough of those and you’ll be miserable. 

The answer is to get and stay motivated. 

But how? Find your unsatisfied need. You...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered during a narrow range session. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4386.75 stop 4382.00. Short 4434.25 stop 4489.50. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from -14 to -79 with all major world markets firmly Bearish. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Existing Home Sales & Fed Chair Powell testifies to House Financial Services Committee @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. 

Quick Tip: Disqualifying 

Traditional work (your job) makes becoming a winning trader difficult. Not because of the time devotion, but because it instills a belief that is NOT helpful in trading. 

What is it? Doing something. Can you imagine if you were caught doing nothing and told the boss “Now is not a good time to be working on...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered and they remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4386.75 stop 4382.00. Short 4471.00 stop 4476.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) rises from -43 to -14 with China/Hong Kong very Bearish and the others mixed on very low volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed Chair Powell testifies to House Financial Services Committee @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Be Calm

Even if you don’t golf you’ve probably heard that it’s a mental game. Most athletics are. Trading is too. Dr. Richard Coop, author of the book “Mind Over Golf” advises players to have their own personal “pre-shot routine.” 

Let’s use his advice but change the details to improve our trading. 

1. If you’re approaching a trade entry with...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4429.75 happened in the Globex last night, good for an 8-point bounce. The breakout short is still open.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4386.75 stop 4382.00. Short 4471.00 stop 4476.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) plunges from +50 to -43 with all major world markets flat to leaning Bearish.    

Catalysts: Housing Starts @ 8:30.  

Quick Tip: No FOMO

Seasoned traders spend time on the review process. They compare their results (behavior) to their plan. This is an excellent way to improve incrementally and get more disciplined. 

There is a “downside” you’ll need to handle, though. Since you can’t take or get filled on every trade setup you’ll find in your review process that you miss plenty of...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4445.00 stopped out but the breakout ran for 27 points to the next volume level, then reversed for +8.50 points at the close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4439.75 stop 4434.25. Short 4504.50 stop 4509.25

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +7 to +50 with all major world markets Bullish.   

Catalysts: Fed’s Barkin @ 9:00. UM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Breakouts

Yesterday’s action reminds me to make sure you’re clear on how to trade the levels presented in this newsletter. 

They can be reversals and breakouts. Obviously, the breakout occurs after a reversal attempt. The reversal might stop out like yesterday, but it could also be a winner that turned later to penetrate the level and signal a breakout....

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4386.75 made the low of the session and ran for 42+ points. Unfortunately, we filtered it out due to FOMC volatility. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4357.50 stop 4353.25. Short 4445.00 stop 4450.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) falls from +36 to +7 in a world of mixed sentiment.  

Catalysts: Retail Sales, Empire State MFG Index, Philly Fed MFG, Import Prices & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Interest rate increases are not over and rate cuts are far off. 

Quick Tip: Compartmentalize

Here’s the setup: you have a 401-K (long only) and you trade short term for income (long and short). Every morning you go through your routine which includes assessing two different time horizons:

The big picture. Trends on monthly and weekly...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested level triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (filtered out during FOMC volatility): 

Buy 4386.75 stop 4382.00. Short 4480.00 stop 4485.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) eases from +43 to +36 with the west carrying the Bullish flag. 

Catalysts: PPI @ 8:30. Crude oil inventories @ 10:30. FOMC announcement @ 14:00, press conference @ 14:30. 

Quick Tip: Quick Tip: FOMC Volatility

FOMC rate announcements and press conferences are the most important repeating catalysts. The volatility can be extreme which means you need to plan for how and when you’re going to trade the session, if at all. 

The trading hours prior to the announcement show the expected collapse of volatility (see histogram above). 

It would seem the volatility would be highest at the time of the rate announcement. But as you can see in the...