The Daily Market Forecast

Globex Review: Trading higher but not quite to our short level. Nice Globex session for set-and-forget with price in the middle of two levels that are wide apart.

Day Session Analysis: Any forecast before Powell’s speech is worthless. Cautious beforehand and trading real-time price action afterward. Friday (both sessions combined garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters and holding off on SPXW credit spreads until after Powell.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4487.25/4489.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4475/4476.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -50 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment and a return to low volatility (no edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.91, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. Globex charts show oil (uptrend) more bullish than the S&P (downtrend). Yen in a downtrend would suggest the S&P going up. Short term forecast says “higher.” 

Catalysts: International Trade & Personal Income @ 8:30. Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00, which will be overshadowed by Powell’s speech at the same time. Afghanistan & Covid Delta continue to heat up.

Trends: 60 min down forming a wedge, daily UP (long edge).

Chart: Low outside day: Win/Stop% about the same, longs CRUSH shorts earning 10X the profit. Opening around +0.25%. $TRIN XMA easing up to 1.03 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 22 (possibly higher by the open) suggests a day session range around 38 points on a FALLING ATR of 32.48. Prior forecast around 26 points, actual 27. NOTE: The Powell speech is likely to increase this metric.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video. 




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