The Daily Market Forecast... open mind

Tuesday’s Blog Results: Neither suggested level triggered during the day session.

Today’s Trading Tip: Have an open mind.

You have a rule-based plan with edge. If not, get one or quit trading. Rules in this case are meant to be followed. You want to be as machine-like as possible. Not easy for many of us, but that’s the goal.

Imagine that your plan is working fine. Your discipline following it is very good. Then you meet a trader who tells you there is a better way. Not a huge change to your plan, just a “tweak.”

What’s your reaction?

  1. Nod politely, congratulate her on finding that “gem” and carry on doing what you’ve always done.

OR…

  1. Get excited, immediately re-write your rules, and expect a big improvement.

You’ve probably met both types of traders. Fixed, disciplined, rarely willing to change and excitable, glib, and always changing.

Consider a middle ground. When you hear of a “better way”...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Thursday’s Blog Results: The suggested buy level only ran for 8.25 points. How much did you get?

Today’s Trading Tip: On Vacation…back on Monday

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points:

Short Level: Sell 4685.50 stop 4690.75.

Long Level: Buy 4552.25 stop 4546.50.

Trade well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. Tired of trading alone? Need more quality setups? Learn how our team-based approach can accelerate your trading performance. Click here for FREE video training.  

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The Daily Market Forecast

Wednesday’s Blog Results: Neither suggested level triggered. The Team saw a secondary level fill (and become the low of the day) running for 24.75 points.    

Today’s Trading Tip:  On Vacation…

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points.

Short Level: Sell 4777.00 stop 4781.75. (Same as yesterday).

Long Level: Buy 4684.75 stop 4679.00.

Trade well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. Tired of trading alone? Need more quality setups? Learn how our team-based approach can accelerate your trading performance. Click here for FREE video training.  

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The Daily Market Forecast... standing back

Wednesday’s Blog Results: Your suggested buy at 4742.50 was only good for a 6.75-point scalp BUT you shouldn’t have taken the trade.

Today’s Trading Tip:  Stand back.    

Traditional work, your job, your career, your profession, all make becoming a winning trader difficult. Not because of the time devotion, because they instill a belief that is NOT helpful in trading.

What is it? Doing something. Can you imagine if you were caught doing nothing and told the boss “Now is not a good time to be working on this.” Or “Thursdays are difficult days to get anything done, so I’m going to loaf.”

In trading NOT entering a trade is not only OK it’s smart. There are times when the probability of success is low. Don’t trade. Unlike your job, doing nothing is completely acceptable.

Look at yesterday. The FOMC Minutes came out at 2PM ET and the volatility soared. The initial reaction was a 13-point bounce higher....

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The Daily Market Forecast... do it easier.

Monday’s Blog Results: Your suggested short on the breakout below 4766 was good for an 8-point run. Team members saw the “perfect” Globex session with two 17.50-point trades back-to-back, level-to-level.

Today’s Trading Tip:  The “easier” session.     

One of the many great features in the Futures market is the Globex session. Most popular Futures contracts start trading at 6:00 PM ET. That’s 15.5 hours before the opening bell the next day.

The participants and trading are different than the day session. During the day the big volume traders are way more active causing price to jerk around more. Statistically, you’ll have more stop-outs during the day.

That sounds good but the main reason you want to trade in the Globex is predictability. Think about it. During the day session all the big volume traders are leaving their “footprint” on the price map. You can “see” where they want to...

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The Daily Market Forecast... though journaling

Friday’s Blog Results: Your suggested buy level at 4722.75 never triggered. Team members saw a nice bounce off a secondary volume level, good for 16.50 points.

Today’s Trading Tip: Thought journaling.   

Documenting all your trade setups, taken or not, is critical to improving results. It’s quick and easy to do. With many strategies the information can be downloaded directly from your trading platform. There is no excuse NOT to have this valuable data.

Then there is the more important information most traders ignore… their thoughts and feelings. Trader psychology author and trainer Dr. Woody Johnson suggests that 80% of trading success is based on your personal psychology. If that figure is anywhere near accurate then you should be keeping what he calls a “Thought Journal.”

Start with the trades you take. You want to make this habit easy to acquire. Immediately after you place the trade log your mental condition. Sharp? Alert? Foggy?...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Tue 210914 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price is range-bound between volume levels. The set/forget long trade off the CPL is still open running for 13 points so far.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment leans bearish and that means buy-the-dip. HOWEVER, CPI @ 8:30 will certainly determine the early trend. Stats say LONG is best. Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to initiate a ladder.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4450.50/4455. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4460.75/4461.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) FADES from +14 to -29 in a world of mixed, bearish leaning sentiment (long edge).

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. All eyes on CPI. Oil supply expected low for a month or so,...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Mon 210913 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: After dipping below Friday’s price has rallied up (all indexes). Two takeable trades, one small loser and one small winner.

Day Session Analysis: The World sentiment is mixed. Stats are mixed as well. Common sense says follow the price action after the open. Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even.  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4481.50/4485.25. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4477.50/4478.5 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +64 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment (modest short edge).

Correlations: After analyzing correlations over multiple time periods (180, 120, 90, 60, 30 days) I observed that the...

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The Daily Market Forecast... Time to Sell?

For Thu 210909 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Gorgeous session with a short trade from 4509.50 running 24-points and still open. Only 3-ticks adverse move. Nice comeback from yesterday. 

Day Session Analysis: Bearish sentiment continues. Mixed signals. Long term outlook reverses quickly to HOLD. Looking to trade in either direction with good reward/risk.  Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today to start a ladder (leaning toward Bear Calls).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4509.50/4513.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4507.75/4509.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -29 to -57 in an increasingly bearish world...

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The Daily Market Forecast... Time to Sell?

For Wed 210908 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: TOUGH session with 3 takeable trades, all losers. Frequently these streaks are followed by wins in the day session.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment turns bearish. Mixed signals leaning SHORT. Long term outlook gets CAUTIOUS. Looking to JUMP on short signals given them extra room to run.  Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today (focusing on Bear Calls).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4517.50/4521. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and WITHIN the equilibrium 4519.75/4525.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +7 to -29 in a mildly bearish world (long edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.89, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.83. No tells from...

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