Yesterday’s results: No trades triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Short 5954.50 stop 5960.25. Buy 5965.25 stop 5959.50 if price retraces down from above. (Filtered out during PCE release). 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dips from -50 to -64 with all major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: PCE, Personal Income & Spending and Fed’s Williams @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment (revised). 

Quick Tip: Manipulation

Courtesy of the WSJ newsletter – “On December 19, 1868, Cornelius Vanderbilt bought additional shares of the New York Central Railroad. He then convened an emergency meeting of the board of directors, which declared an 80% dividend. The stock shot up over the next two days, at which point Vanderbilt dumped his new shares for a $5.5 million profit.”

Today we have the SEC and regulations to prevent blatant manipulation like Vanderbilt did. But manipulation still exists, just more subtle. 

Insiders are still buying shares ahead of good ne...

Yesterday’s results: The suggested trade didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5908.75 stop 5903.75 if price retraces back from above. Short 5869.00 stop 5873.00 if price retraces back from below.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -29 to -14 with most of the world mildly Bearish on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Bowman @ 9:00, Barkin @ 12:00. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Beige Book @ 14:00. TSLA earnings after the close. 

Quick Tip: Short Interest

Short interest is a great “off-the-price-chart” indicator you can add to your research for stock and option trades. It’s the number of shares of a particular stock that have been sold short but have not yet been bought back (closed). 

If short interest is high, it suggests bearish sentiment and an unusually low short interest suggests bullish sentiment.

Here are two popular metrics that you can analyze for edge: 

Short Interest Ratio (SIR) or Days to Cover - Tot...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5888.50 picked the bottom of the session and ran for 25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5908.50 stop 5904.25 if price retraces down from above. Short 5864.75 stop 5868.50 if price retraces up from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from zero to +43 with most of the world Bullish. Asia up strong. 

Catalysts: Building Permits & Housing Starts @ 8:30. Fed’s Waller @ 12:10. 

Quick Tip: Dividend Plays? Really? 

As traders we’re usually focused on capital gains, not holding stocks over the long term and collecting dividends. However, having a dividend producing portfolio is a fabulous way to balance your wealth growth relative to the ups and downs of active trading. 

John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group, said “Over the long run, it is dividends, and dividends alone, that account for the lion’s share of stock market returns." 

Warren Buffett was a huge fan as well: "The best investment you can make is in a business that has a d...

Yesterday’s results: No trades triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5861.25 stop 5858.25. Short 5859.00 stop 5862.00 if price retraces up from below.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) falls from +21 to -29 with mixed sentiment, China/HK down firmly. 

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Fed’s Daly @ 11:30, Kugler @ 13:00. Contrarian Alert: VIX near 20 is unusual at new highs. 

Quick Tip: VIX Explained 

Have you ever heard of the stock market's “fear gauge”? That’s a nickname for the VIX, or Volatility Index. The VIX helps us understand how much uncertainty or risk there is in the market at any given time. 

It measures how volatile the stock market is expected to be over the next 30 days. In other words, it shows how much the prices of stocks might swing up or down. The more the market is expected to move, the higher the VIX goes. 

It's often called the "fear gauge" because when investors are nervous—like when there’s bad economic news, political uncertainty,...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) improves from -7 to +21 with Asia Bullish and the west mixed.

Catalysts: Powell’s Text ahead of Testimony @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 9:15, Powell & Yellen @ 10:00, Bowman @ 13:30. 

Quick Tip: Catalysts

Whether you’re a day, swing, or position trader one thing that must happen for your trade to really move is a catalyst. This could be news, earnings, economics, and many other events. 

A strong catalyst helps in several ways. Price moves quicker and usually farther than normal. Volume increases for better liquidity. 

Ideally, you’ll be proactive in finding potential catalysts that have not hit the mainstream yet. On our Swing Trading Stock/Options team, we get an early peak by monitoring Insider Buying and Unusual Options Activity. Both occasionally precede a publicly announced catalyst. Timin...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +36 to +21 with most major world markets mildly Bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims, Building Permits/Housing Starts, Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. Fed’s Barkin @ 15:30. 

Quick Tip: Overbought is Tricky.

Price soars way up, it’s overbought. Price plunges way down, it’s oversold. There are many indicators and chart patterns for identifying these conditions. The rub is these conditions can persist. Exiting too soon isn’t all that bad. All you did was make a little less profit. Entering the reversal too soon is usually trouble. 

The S&P once again is at an all-time high. Interest rates are still high along with inflation. Geopolitical stress remains. Gravity will prevail one day. 

Short term traders love this price action. Jump on the trends, fade the ranges. Lots of opportunities. L...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -43 to -36 with the Western world the most Bearish.   

Catalysts: Import/Export Prices @ Fed’s Mester @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Fed’s Mester @ 13:15, Goolsbee @ 14:00.  

Quick Tip: Position Trading

If you’re too busy to trade short term, or simply don’t prefer that style, buy-and-hold is probably how you’re invested. You can potentially improve your results by treating those positions as trades, hence the name Position Trading. 

The stock market is an excellent source of position trade ideas. The selection is second to none. The returns over time can be incredible. The capital efficiency is not great though. You can do better by substituting options for stocks. 

I’m surprised by how many people I talk to don’t realize that you can buy options on stocks with long term expiration dates. One year, 18 months, two ye...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No trade triggered.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 5286.50 stop 5280.75. No short trade today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +43 to -14 with Asia Bearish and the West mixed. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Powell @ 9:00 and Barr @ 12:00. 

Quick Tip: New Paradigm

What are your beliefs about successful trading? How have you been taught? 

Technical analysis – “All I need is a good indicator or two to be a winner, history repeats itself enough for me.” That’s OK. 

Fundamental analysis – “Indicators are lagging, I want to study and KNOW the asset I’m trading to predict the future with confidence.” That’s OK too. 

Chart analysis – “Patterns on the chart are predictive of price movement, I trade what I see based on support and resistance, supply and demand, trendlines, and/or volume/volatility changes.” That’s OK as well. 

Combination – “I prefer to combin...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The short at 5142.25 stopped out and the breakout buy at 5238.25 only offered a 5.50-point move before failing. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 5113.75 stop 5109.25. Short 5155.00 stop 5159.00 if price drops below and retraces to entry. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -44 to +6 with the world markets mixed within low volatility. 

Catalysts: Non-Farm Payrolls @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: All-Time High

What is your plan? Stay long, hedge, go flat, or short? 

Evidence from an analysis of stock market returns since 1926 done by Schroders.com might help: 

1. Of the 1,176 months since January 1926, the market was at an all-time high in 354 of them, 30% of the time.

2. 12-month returns following an all-time high being hit have been better than at other times: 10.3% ahead of inflation compared with 8.6% when the market wasn’t at a high

3. $100 invested in ...