Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) improves from -7 to +21 with Asia Bullish and the west mixed.

Catalysts: Powell’s Text ahead of Testimony @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 9:15, Powell & Yellen @ 10:00, Bowman @ 13:30. 

Quick Tip: Catalysts

Whether you’re a day, swing, or position trader one thing that must happen for your trade to really move is a catalyst. This could be news, earnings, economics, and many other events. 

A strong catalyst helps in several ways. Price moves quicker and usually farther than normal. Volume increases for better liquidity. 

Ideally, you’ll be proactive in finding potential catalysts that have not hit the mainstream yet. On our Swing Trading Stock/Options team, we get an early peak by monitoring...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +36 to +21 with most major world markets mildly Bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims, Building Permits/Housing Starts, Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. Fed’s Barkin @ 15:30. 

Quick Tip: Overbought is Tricky.

Price soars way up, it’s overbought. Price plunges way down, it’s oversold. There are many indicators and chart patterns for identifying these conditions. The rub is these conditions can persist. Exiting too soon isn’t all that bad. All you did was make a little less profit. Entering the reversal too soon is usually trouble. 

The S&P once again is at an all-time high. Interest rates are still high along with inflation. Geopolitical stress remains. Gravity will prevail one...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -43 to -36 with the Western world the most Bearish.   

Catalysts: Import/Export Prices @ Fed’s Mester @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Fed’s Mester @ 13:15, Goolsbee @ 14:00.  

Quick Tip: Position Trading

If you’re too busy to trade short term, or simply don’t prefer that style, buy-and-hold is probably how you’re invested. You can potentially improve your results by treating those positions as trades, hence the name Position Trading. 

The stock market is an excellent source of position trade ideas. The selection is second to none. The returns over time can be incredible. The capital efficiency is not great though. You can do better by substituting options for stocks. 

...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No trade triggered.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 5286.50 stop 5280.75. No short trade today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +43 to -14 with Asia Bearish and the West mixed. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Powell @ 9:00 and Barr @ 12:00. 

Quick Tip: New Paradigm

What are your beliefs about successful trading? How have you been taught? 

Technical analysis – “All I need is a good indicator or two to be a winner, history repeats itself enough for me.” That’s OK. 

Fundamental analysis – “Indicators are lagging, I want to study and KNOW the asset I’m trading to predict the future with confidence.” That’s OK too. 

Chart analysis – “Patterns on the chart are predictive...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The short at 5142.25 stopped out and the breakout buy at 5238.25 only offered a 5.50-point move before failing. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 5113.75 stop 5109.25. Short 5155.00 stop 5159.00 if price drops below and retraces to entry. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -44 to +6 with the world markets mixed within low volatility. 

Catalysts: Non-Farm Payrolls @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: All-Time High

What is your plan? Stay long, hedge, go flat, or short? 

Evidence from an analysis of stock market returns since 1926 done by Schroders.com might help: 

1. Of the 1,176 months since January 1926, the market was at an all-time high in 354 of them, 30% of the time.

2. 12-month returns following an all-time high being hit have been better than at...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 5142.25 stop 5137.50 if price rises above and retraces to entry (breakout). Short 5138.25 stop 5143.00. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +31 to -44 with most major world markets Bearish on rising volatility in Asia. 

Catalysts: Day Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Powell @ 10:00. Fed’s Mester @ 11:30.

Quick Tip: Ask Yourself

Earnings season is over. Generally, stocks that beat expectations will rise and vice versa. Your portfolio will likely have winners and losers. If all you look at is the total value you’re missing opportunity. 

You should be asking yourself how you’re going to manage each position. Being proactive and planning will get you the calm confidence to execute with no doubt. 

...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 5026.00 stopped out. Shorting 5022.50 on the retracement ran for 9.75 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4972.75 stop 4969.25. Short 5026.50 stop 5031.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +67 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: Nothing important on the economic calendar 

Quick Tip: Smart Money

Who are your “Smart Money” Connections? 

Most traders don’t have even one, let alone many. 

For the longest time, I didn’t either. And now that I have many, I wouldn’t trade any other way. Following “Smart Money” trades is absolutely the best edge I’ve found in 25 years of trading. 

And I want to share this with you!

You’ll see all...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4885.00 stop 4881.50. Short 4882.25 stop 4885.75 if price falls below and retraces back. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from +7 to +50 with most major world markets bullish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: MFG & Services PMI Flash @ 9:45. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Earnings surprises (ASML kills it). China commits to stimulus. 

Quick Tip: Overbought?

Price soars way higher, it’s overbought. Price plunges way lower, it’s oversold. There are many indicators and chart patterns for verifying these conditions. 

The rub is these conditions can and do persist. Exiting too soon isn’t all that bad. All you did was make a little less profit. Entering the reversal too soon is trouble. 

The...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade level triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4767.25 stop 4761.50. Short 4797.50 stop 4800.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -86 to +50 with most major world markets solidly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed MFG Index, Building Permits, and Housing Starts @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 11:30. World Economic Forum in Davos (all week).

Quick Tip: Think Risk First

You might be thinking, "Aren't we trading for the profits?" Yes, however, in the long term a well-structured risk management plan should outweigh the short-term profits you stand to gain.

Why? Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Your goal is not just to gain high returns in the short run, but to sustain profitable trading over a long period.

...