The Daily Market Forecast

For Tue 210914 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price is range-bound between volume levels. The set/forget long trade off the CPL is still open running for 13 points so far.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment leans bearish and that means buy-the-dip. HOWEVER, CPI @ 8:30 will certainly determine the early trend. Stats say LONG is best. Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to initiate a ladder.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4450.50/4455. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4460.75/4461.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) FADES from +14 to -29 in a world of mixed, bearish leaning sentiment (long edge).

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. All eyes on CPI. Oil supply expected low for a month or so,...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Mon 210913 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: After dipping below Friday’s price has rallied up (all indexes). Two takeable trades, one small loser and one small winner.

Day Session Analysis: The World sentiment is mixed. Stats are mixed as well. Common sense says follow the price action after the open. Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even.  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4481.50/4485.25. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4477.50/4478.5 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +64 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment (modest short edge).

Correlations: After analyzing correlations over multiple time periods (180, 120, 90, 60, 30 days) I observed that the...

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The Daily Market Forecast... Time to Sell?

For Thu 210909 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Gorgeous session with a short trade from 4509.50 running 24-points and still open. Only 3-ticks adverse move. Nice comeback from yesterday. 

Day Session Analysis: Bearish sentiment continues. Mixed signals. Long term outlook reverses quickly to HOLD. Looking to trade in either direction with good reward/risk.  Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today to start a ladder (leaning toward Bear Calls).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4509.50/4513.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4507.75/4509.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -29 to -57 in an increasingly bearish world...

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The Daily Market Forecast... Time to Sell?

For Wed 210908 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: TOUGH session with 3 takeable trades, all losers. Frequently these streaks are followed by wins in the day session.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment turns bearish. Mixed signals leaning SHORT. Long term outlook gets CAUTIOUS. Looking to JUMP on short signals given them extra room to run.  Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today (focusing on Bear Calls).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4517.50/4521. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and WITHIN the equilibrium 4519.75/4525.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +7 to -29 in a mildly bearish world (long edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.89, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.83. No tells from...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 210902 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trading modestly higher, two takeable trades, one small loser and one still open with one target in the bag. 

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. Jobless Claims will set the early trend. Not trading until that report is digested. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to ladder credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4526.25/4528.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4526/4527.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +64 to +21 in a world of low volatility, mildly bullish sentiment (modest short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Wed 210901 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trading higher, one takeable trade, two targets in the bag and still open.

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. No big obvious catalysts. Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW credit spreads.

The Mortgage Payment trade is currently profitable for both SPY calls and TLT puts. 

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4518.25/4522.25. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4522.25/4527.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from zero to +64 with all major world markets solidly bullish (short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.90, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. No obvious tells.

Catalysts: ADP...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Tue 210831 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: More new highs but Volume Profile didn’t pay out missing the better opportunity waiting for the retracement… two takeable trades, one small winner, one stopped.

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. No big obvious catalysts. Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW credit spreads to start a ladder.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4529.75/4532.75. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4521.75/4524 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from +29 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment (no edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.90, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. Globex charts show all three...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Mon 210830 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Very slow session but another new high. One takeable trade that stopped out.

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4504.25/4506.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4493.25/4496.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases up from zero to +29 in a mildly bullish world with low volatility (short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.91, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. Globex charts show oil breaking a downtrend line and the S&P remaining flat, if oil leads the S&P should rise. Yen is flat saying nothing.

...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Globex Review: Trading higher but not quite to our short level. Nice Globex session for set-and-forget with price in the middle of two levels that are wide apart.

Day Session Analysis: Any forecast before Powell’s speech is worthless. Cautious beforehand and trading real-time price action afterward. Friday (both sessions combined garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters and holding off on SPXW credit spreads until after Powell.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4487.25/4489.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4475/4476.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -50 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment and a return to low volatility (no edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.91, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. Globex charts show oil (uptrend) more bullish than the...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 210826 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Still range-bound. One takeable trade was a small loser.

Day Session Analysis: Charts suggest a continued melt-up or range day. Stats are mixed. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. PREFER trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters and holding off on starting a ladder on the SPXW given the uncertainty tomorrow morning (Powell).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4492.75/4496. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4489.25/4490.75 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from +7 to -50 with most major world markets bearish with volatility kicking up from yesterday (long edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.91, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. Globex charts show uptrends for CL...

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