The Daily Market Forecast

For Fri 210917 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: No takeable trades.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is mixed. The “melt-up” environment has become “melt-down.” Stats are mixed. Looking to take trades in either direction and letting shorts run further. Friday (both sessions combined garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%).  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. VERY cautious with SPXW credit spreads due to Quad Witching.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4463/4469.25. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4457/4457.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -14 to +7. Improving? Not so fast. Asia rebounded from several days of selling, the western world sold off some. Mixed sentiment (no edge).

Catalysts: Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Quad Witching (volatility...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 210916 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price traded in a 15-point range and offered one takeable trade that ended a small loser. “Thursday Filter” saved you.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is mixed. Traditional chart analysis says bearish. Stats mixed, leaning bullish. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium for credit spreads ladders.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4438.50/4445.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4459.25/4460.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -43 to -14 in a world of very mixed sentiment. Asia trending down, Europe trending up, S&P Futures trending down (modest long edge).

Catalysts:...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Wed 210915 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price is range-bound between congested volume levels. No takeable trades triggered.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment leans bearish and that means buy-the-dip. Stats mixed. The levels are congested for the open. Patience required. Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%).  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium for credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4448.50/4453. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4446.75/4447.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) FADES from -29 to -43 in a world of bearish sentiment (long edge).

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index & Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. China’s...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Tue 210914 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price is range-bound between volume levels. The set/forget long trade off the CPL is still open running for 13 points so far.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment leans bearish and that means buy-the-dip. HOWEVER, CPI @ 8:30 will certainly determine the early trend. Stats say LONG is best. Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to initiate a ladder.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4450.50/4455. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4460.75/4461.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) FADES from +14 to -29 in a world of mixed, bearish leaning sentiment (long edge).

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. All eyes on CPI. Oil supply expected low for a month or so,...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Mon 210913 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: After dipping below Friday’s price has rallied up (all indexes). Two takeable trades, one small loser and one small winner.

Day Session Analysis: The World sentiment is mixed. Stats are mixed as well. Common sense says follow the price action after the open. Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even.  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4481.50/4485.25. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4477.50/4478.5 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +64 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment (modest short edge).

Correlations: After analyzing correlations over multiple time periods (180, 120, 90, 60, 30 days) I observed that the...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Fri 210910 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price is drifting up. No trades taken based on reward/risk. Two winners documented with a third trade open no targets hit yet.  

Day Session Analysis: The world flipped to a solid BULLISH sentiment. Stats point to shorts working better than longs, but both should be taken. Mindful that we’re opening in a congested area and likely will wait for Volume Profile entries. Friday (both sessions combined garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%).  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4495/4501.50. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4501.75/4503 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -57 to +64 with all major world markets soundly bullish (short...

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The Daily Market Forecast... Time to Sell?

For Thu 210909 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Gorgeous session with a short trade from 4509.50 running 24-points and still open. Only 3-ticks adverse move. Nice comeback from yesterday. 

Day Session Analysis: Bearish sentiment continues. Mixed signals. Long term outlook reverses quickly to HOLD. Looking to trade in either direction with good reward/risk.  Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today to start a ladder (leaning toward Bear Calls).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4509.50/4513.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4507.75/4509.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -29 to -57 in an increasingly bearish world...

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The Daily Market Forecast... Time to Sell?

For Wed 210908 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: TOUGH session with 3 takeable trades, all losers. Frequently these streaks are followed by wins in the day session.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment turns bearish. Mixed signals leaning SHORT. Long term outlook gets CAUTIOUS. Looking to JUMP on short signals given them extra room to run.  Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today (focusing on Bear Calls).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4517.50/4521. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and WITHIN the equilibrium 4519.75/4525.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +7 to -29 in a mildly bearish world (long edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.89, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.83. No tells from...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Tue 210907 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Drifting slowly down from the highs. Several congested levels. No trading over holiday.

Day Session Analysis: With no clear catalyst another melt-up or range-bound session is expected.  Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even.  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking (hard) for attractive SPXW premium today.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4528.75/4531.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4531.25/4534 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to +7 with Asia very bullish and the western world mildly bearish (no edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.89, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.90. ES/CL/JY all trending down suggesting JY may reverse up.

Catalysts: No economic releases. Nothing big...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 210902 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trading modestly higher, two takeable trades, one small loser and one still open with one target in the bag. 

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. Jobless Claims will set the early trend. Not trading until that report is digested. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to ladder credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4526.25/4528.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4526/4527.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +64 to +21 in a world of low volatility, mildly bullish sentiment (modest short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil...

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