Trade Aptitude

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The trade idea never triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 5073.00 stop 5068.50. No great shorts today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +69 to +38 in a mildly Bullish world on plummeting volatility. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Let’s see if there is any follow-through from the NVDA rally. 

Quick Tip: You’re the Enemy

Showing my age here quoting Walt Kelly’s Pogo cartoon: “We have met the enemy, and they are us.” 

Developing traders put so much time and effort into finding the best strategy and risk management plan (both important) that they ignore the real enemy in trading. 

Your personal psychology about winning or losing, and being right or wrong, will ruin your performance more than a mediocre...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points:Shorting 5040.25 was only good for a 5.25-point scalp. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 5026.00 stop 5021.75. Short 5022.50 stop 5026.75 if price falls below and retraces to entry.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +29 to +67 with all major world markets Bullish on rising volatility.  

Catalysts: PPI, Building Permits, Housing Starts @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 9:10. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Fed’s Daly @ 12:10. 

Quick Tip: 4 Fears

You know that a winning trader is a confident trader, and a losing trader is a fearful trader. Part of your personal development plan should be eliminating your fears. 

Yes, fears. Plural. You can have more than one. Over the years teaching traders I’ve noticed different types of fear. 

1. The most obvious...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4909.75 offered a 9.25-point run. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4892.50 stop 4886.75. Short 4887.50 stop 4893.25 if price falls below and retraces to entry. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +19 to zero with sentiment mixed. 

Catalysts: Non-Farm Payrolls @ 8:30. Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Finding Edge

Every trader and any worthwhile educator of traders talks about edge. It’s what the casinos have. You can win any given day, but they will win every day. Edge = advantage. 

Edge is also mysterious to many traders. How do you find edge? Research is the best start but what are you looking for to validate it? 

Here’s a simple exercise to find and validate the edge in any trading strategy. 

1. Determine...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4885.00 stop 4881.50. Short 4948.00 stop 4953.25

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +6 to zero with sentiment mixed worldwide on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Change @ 8:15. Employment Cost Index @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement & Press Conference @ 14:00/14:30. 

Quick Tip: One Good Habit?

In his excellent book Atomic Habits author James Clear named chapter 20 The Downside of Creating Good Habits. Darn good title! 

Here’s the gist of it: once we practice something enough to become skilled and automatic we become less aware of improving it. We stop looking for the mistakes. After all, once it’s a habit you’re not thinking about it...

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Trade Aptitude

psychology trading Jan 26, 2024

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered, both levels remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4885.00 stop 4881.50. Short 4867.00 stop 4871.25 if price falls below and retraces back. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dips from +13 to +6 with sentiment widely mixed worldwide.

Catalysts: Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income/Spending @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. More China stimulus didn’t work last night. 

Quick Tip: Darwin the Trader

Traders can learn from so many great sources that have nothing to do with trading! If you think about it, trading is more psychological than mathematical. That means your ability to improve your results rests more on improving your behavior than your strategy rules. 

Here’s a great example: Charles Darwin said, “It is not...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade level triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4767.25 stop 4761.50. Short 4797.50 stop 4800.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -86 to +50 with most major world markets solidly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed MFG Index, Building Permits, and Housing Starts @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 11:30. World Economic Forum in Davos (all week).

Quick Tip: Think Risk First

You might be thinking, "Aren't we trading for the profits?" Yes, however, in the long term a well-structured risk management plan should outweigh the short-term profits you stand to gain.

Why? Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Your goal is not just to gain high returns in the short run, but to sustain profitable trading over a long period.

...

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Trade Aptitude

 

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4521.00 stop 4517.00. Short 4628.50 stop 4632.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -43 to +57 with all major world markets Bullish. Risk on.

Catalysts: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change @ 8:15. Revised Non-Farm Productivity & Costs @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: You’re Biased!

No offense. There are so many cognitive biases that affect our trading results, and everyone has some. Possibly the worst bias is called Personal Blind Spot.

It occurs when you fail to recognize your weaknesses and shortcomings, leading to suboptimal trading decisions and poor performance.

One of the primary ways to resolve this bias is through self-reflection and self-awareness. You must take the time to assess...

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Trade Aptitude

psychology trading Nov 02, 2023

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4259.50 stop 4254.00. Short 4305.00 stop 4309.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from zero to +64 with most major world markets very Bullish. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Powell hints dovish.

Quick Tip: Play to Win 

All your results start with your orientation toward life. In Larry Wilson’s book, Play to Win: Choosing Growth Over Fear in Work and Life, he reveals the two orientations that you must choose between.

1. Play to win.

2. Playing not to lose. 

What’s the difference? 

People who have a positive attitude packed with a view of abundant opportunities that are willing to overcome challenges, grow and risk for gain are “Playing to Win.” 

...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade suggestion triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4182.00 stop 4178.75. Short 4229.75 stop 4233.50. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) remains at +14 with Asia Bullish and the west modestly Bearish.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Updates on the debt ceiling negotiations can come at any time and cause high volatility. Stay focused. 

Quick Tip: Leading Indicator

Everyone wants to find the best “Leading Indicator.” One that alerts you before price action changes. While nothing works all the time in this business there are methods to gain an edge.

If you’re a swing or position trader of stocks or options, I’ve found hard evidence that there is a Leading Indicator that has a significant edge. I’ll be...

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