The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 210902 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trading modestly higher, two takeable trades, one small loser and one still open with one target in the bag. 

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. Jobless Claims will set the early trend. Not trading until that report is digested. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to ladder credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4526.25/4528.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4526/4527.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +64 to +21 in a world of low volatility, mildly bullish sentiment (modest short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.90, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.90. No obvious tells.

Catalysts: International Trade & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Waiting on tomorrow’s employment report, although today will give an early signal.

Trends: 60 min UP forming a WEDGE, daily UP starting a topping pattern (short edge).

Chart: LOW outside day: Win/Stop% about the same, longs CRUSH shorts earning 10X the profit. Opening +0.15%. $TRIN XMA up a bit at 0.99 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 16.25 (possibly higher by the open) suggests a day session range around 30 points on a FALLING ATR of 30.98. Prior forecast around 30 points, actual 15.75.  

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video. 




Thanks for joining The Daily Market Forecast Community!

You'll receive an email shortly to verify your FREE enrollment