The Daily Market Forecast

For Wed 210901 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trading higher, one takeable trade, two targets in the bag and still open.

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. No big obvious catalysts. Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW credit spreads.

The Mortgage Payment trade is currently profitable for both SPY calls and TLT puts. 

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4518.25/4522.25. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4522.25/4527.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from zero to +64 with all major world markets solidly bullish (short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.90, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. No obvious tells.

Catalysts: ADP Employment @ 8:15. ISM MFG @ 10:00. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. OPEC production announcement around 11:00. Nothing else obvious

Trends: 60 min UP forming a WEDGE, daily UP (short edge).

Chart: High outside day: Win/Stop% about the same, shorts delivered 20% more profit. Opening +0.30%. $TRIN XMA trending down at 0.91 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 16.25 (possibly higher by the open) suggests a day session range around 35 points on a FALLING ATR of 30.98. Prior forecast around 35 points, actual 16.

 Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.