The Daily Market Forecast... Courage or Confidence?

Wednesday’s Results: Shorting 4158 offered 52.75 points before closing the day +43 points. 

Quick Tip: Courage or Confidence?

You’ve probably experienced that trade setup that just didn’t look or feel right. The rules say “Short” but price is skyrocketing. All you can think about is that stop getting filled instantly and you’re underwater again. Sound familiar?

On the chart above, notice the momentum leading into the suggested short level. The parabolic move up came within ONE TICK of filling your short entry.

Taking that short against that momentum felt wrong. But it wasn’t. Hard evidence over thousands of trades showed the probability was in your favor.

Would it take “courage” to enter that trade? Being courageous sounds too risky to me. I get mental images of danger ahead and I’m supposed to plow right through and prevail… without pain?

Then it retraced several points. Relief! That level may work out!

Confidence is the “real” courage in trading. It’s knowing from years of study, practice, documentation, review, and real time execution the probability of your success.

Take the reversal entry above that ran for 52 points. It happened at a time of day when reversals historically average a pay out 3 times your risk. Know your probabilities and trade with confidence.

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points: 

Sell 4147.00 stop 4153.75 (if triggered before the open it’s good again with price moving up from below later).

Buy 4116.25 stop 4112.25. 

Trade Fearlessly,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. Are you looking for evidence-based trading filters to improve your edge? Join me this Sunday June 12 @ 5PM ET for a free mini-class “All About Evidence.” You’ll learn several techniques that are high probability and easy to implement. Click here to register. Seats are limited.