For Wed 210908 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)
Globex Review: TOUGH session with 3 takeable trades, all losers. Frequently these streaks are followed by wins in the day session.
Day Session Analysis: Sentiment turns bearish. Mixed signals leaning SHORT. Long term outlook gets CAUTIOUS. Looking to JUMP on short signals given them extra room to run. Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today (focusing on Bear Calls).
S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4517.50/4521. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and WITHIN the equilibrium 4519.75/4525.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).
The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +7 to -29 in a mildly bearish world (long edge).
Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.89, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.83. No tells from ES/CL relationship. Note that JY changed from -.90 to -.83, still plenty but trending away.
Catalysts: JOLTS @ 10:00. Multiple Wall Street banks caution investors that equities are over-bought. Takeaway: “Any correction could be quickly amplified.”
Trends: 60 min UP, daily RANGE (short edge).
Chart: Low outside day. Win/Stop% about the same, longs CRUSH shorts earning 10X the profit. Opening flat. $TRIN XMA DUMPS to 0.88. Strategy rules suggests Sell/Short if this dips below 0.80 (long term outlook: CAUTION for now).
Globex: The range of 27.75 (possibly wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 42 points on a RISING ATR of 26.69. Prior forecast around 30 points, actual 21.25.
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