The Daily Market Forecast... Time to Sell?

For Thu 210909 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Gorgeous session with a short trade from 4509.50 running 24-points and still open. Only 3-ticks adverse move. Nice comeback from yesterday. 

Day Session Analysis: Bearish sentiment continues. Mixed signals. Long term outlook reverses quickly to HOLD. Looking to trade in either direction with good reward/risk.  Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today to start a ladder (leaning toward Bear Calls).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4509.50/4513.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4507.75/4509.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -29 to -57 in an increasingly bearish world (long edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.89, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.83. Teammate Thomas B. observes that stocks usually follow oil (sometimes with a delay) but NOT the other way around. The Globex charts show oil trending up and the S&P range bound, suggesting a move up. JY is starting to move down, reinforcing that view.

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 11:00. Fear in the air over slowing economic growth and how the central banks will address it. ECB Press Conference @ 8:30. China tech-crackdown re-ignites with a freeze on new online games and instructions for tech leaders to ease their “solitary focus” on profits. YIKES!

Trends: 60 min UP, daily DOWN (mixed view on edge).

Chart: Low outside day. Win/Stop% about the same, longs CRUSH shorts earning 10X the profit.  Opening -0.25% (long edge). $TRIN XMA rebounds from 0.88 to 1.02 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 26.25 (possibly wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 40 points on a LEVELING ATR of 26.90. Prior forecast around 42 points, actual 28.25. Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video. 

 

 

Close

Thanks for joining The Daily Market Forecast Community!

You'll receive an email shortly to verify your FREE enrollment