Every strategy should explain WHY it works: If you can’t explain it, you won’t trust it.

Most struggling traders don’t lack strategies—they lack belief in the strategies they’re using. That belief doesn’t come from back tests alone. It comes from understanding why a strategy should work in the first place.

On professional trading desks, no strategy survives without a solid story. A clear explanation of what market behavior the strategy exploits and when it should fail.

Why “Story” Matters More Than Signals

When markets move against you (and they will), your reaction depends on whether you understand the logic behind your approach. If you don’t, doubt creeps in. Doubt leads to rule-breaking. Rule-breaking destroys edge.

Behavioral research shows that uncertainty without explanation increases emotional behavior, stress and reduces adherence to plans.

Here’s an example: Let’s say you’re not familiar with the depth and duration of a drawdown your strategy is likely to encounter. When...

Many novice traders believe trading success comes from prediction. If they could just predict what the market will do next, profits would follow. That belief sabotages more trading accounts than bad strategies ever could.

Consider scientists. Do they invent and discover by predicting and hoping?

No, scientists don’t. They observe, form hypotheses, test ideas, and revise their thinking when the evidence demands it. Successful traders operate the same way.

A scientist never says, “I think this experiment will work, so I’ll ignore the data if it doesn’t.” Yet traders do this every day. They fall in love with an idea, defend a bias, or rationalize a loss instead of learning from it. That’s not trading, that’s ego management.

Trading like a scientist starts with replacing opinions with questions. Instead of saying, “The market should go up here,” a scientific trader asks, “Under what conditions does price tend to move higher from this level?” That shift alone changes everything. You’re ...

A repeatable morning routine tells your brain, “It’s time to trade.” Consistency builds clarity.

One of the most underappreciated edges in trading has nothing to do with indicators, setups, or market forecasts. It’s how you begin the day.

After decades of trading and working alongside consistently profitable professionals, one pattern is universal: the best traders start every trading day the same way.

They don’t wake up and “see how they feel.”
They don’t jump straight into charts or P&L.
They don’t let the market decide their mental state.

They use a repeatable pre-market routine to shift the brain from everyday life into execution mode.

Why a Morning Routine Works (Science, Not Motivation)

Neuroscience and performance research show that the brain performs best under predictable structure. Repeated routines reduce cognitive load, stabilize emotional responses, and improve decision quality under pressure.

Research in behavioral psychology demonstrates that consistent pre-performa...

The worst situation to be in trading Futures or options is having one contract. You have little flexibility with your exiting decision. 

Fortunately, with many micro contracts in Futures to select from even smaller account holders can trade multiples. This gives you the flexibility to “scale out” of the trade one contract (or more) at a time. 

Ultimately, your size is a function of your acceptable risk. How much you’re willing to lose when you stop out will determine your size. Trading micro contracts, if you’re willing to lose $120 on a trade and the per-contract risk is $30, then your size is obviously 4 contracts. 

The challenge you have with day trading is market noise. The bigger picture trend may look smoother than the trading timeframe chart. Sometimes that "noise" will stop you out prematurely. One way to mitigate this is to set an initial high probability profit target as your first exit. Call it a “risk management profit target.” It gives you a little win, reduces your ris...

Yesterday’s results: No trades suggested.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 6155 stop 6150.75 if price retraces down from above. No short level today. (Filtered out during FOMC volatility). 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -14 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish on mild volatility. 

Catalysts: Building Permits & Housing Starts @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement @ 14:00, Press Conference @ 14:30. 

Quick Tip: Trading FOMC

The pattern tends to be range-bound before the announcement and volatile during and afterward. This should help with your trade selection and planning. In fact, if you have solid historical data on your strategy’s performance during FOMC day that is negative, not trading at all may make sense. 

The announcement releases at 2PM ET. You might think the highest volatility is within the 30-minute interval afterward. Historically, it’s the next 30-minute interval when the press conference begins.

When should you trade? Af...

Yesterday’s results: Shorting 6035.50 stopped out. Buying 5988.00 offered 8.25 points before reversing. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No great levels today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) falls from +21 to -29 with most major world markets mildly Bearish on low volatility. S&P futures slightly higher. 

Catalysts: S&P Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales & Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. FOMC Minutes @ 14:00.  

Quick Tip: Big Picture 

Regardless of your trading timeframe, daily, swing, or position, using a “big picture” analysis to your entry decision adds edge. It’s the higher timeframe. 

Traditional technical analysis suggests that a multiple of 3 to 6 is appropriate. For example, if you’re a day trader using a 5-minute chart for your entry, aligning with the trend of the 15- or 30-minute chart will help. A swing trader using a daily chart would align with the weekly chart. 

Consider this: if you’re using your entry timeframe trend change to exit ...

Yesterday’s results: : Shorting 6032.75 caught the high of the session and ran for 25.50 points before closing the day +19.00. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 6037.50 stop 6034.75 if price retraces down from above. No short candidate today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dips from zero to -7 with the major world markets diverging, Asia is Bearish, the west is Bullish, range is increasing. 

Catalysts: PPI & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Fed’s Barkin @ 9:00, Powell @ 15:00. Crude Oil inventories @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: Second Chances

Yesterday’s short entry was effective three times. The expected sellers were clearly active. Historically, the first touch works best. Subsequent touches while still tradable, have less probability of success. 

Why? Because every order initiated from the sell side reduces the number of contracts available for sale. Eventually there are no big sellers remaining. 

I recall listening to a trading instructor years ago explain Support and Resistance. He...

Yesterday’s results: No trades triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5996.50 stop 5992.75. Short 5993.50 stop 5997.25 if price retraces up from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +36 to -71 with all major world markets Bearish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed Speakers today: Waller @ 10:00, Barkin @ 10:15, Kashkari @ 14:00, Harker @ 17:00, Barkin @ 17:30. 

Quick Tip: Diversify Re-Defined

One of our teams day-trades in the futures market. There is plenty of focus on the S&P 500 contract. Yesterday it traded in a relatively narrow range (31.75 points) and closed down 8 points from Friday. The other indexes weren’t very different. Ho hum. 

Our other team swing trades options. You might think that given the lack of movement in the indexes that the options portfolio would be flat too. It wasn’t. In fact, there were specific options that moved substantially. My portfolio of 20 positions was up 12% for the day reaching an all-time high. 

Surprisi...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5867.75 picked the bottom of the session and ran for 29.75 points at the close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5908.75 stop 5903.75 if price retraces back from above. No short suggestion today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -36 to -29 with most of the world mildly Bearish on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: Richmond MFG Index & Fed’s Harker @ 10:00. BRICS Summit starts, IMF day 2. 

Quick Tip: Fear Not

Looking at the chart above how price was approaching the buy level you might feel like you were stepping in front of a freight train. Confidence in your strategy is required. 

Of course, since you knew the entry well beforehand a set/forget order would have been a good solution to any fear you might have watching price approach live. 

The stats should help with your fear as well. This strategy has a history over 5000 trades, stopping out only 32% of the time. 

The winners will require open trade management skills to eke the most o...