Trade Aptitude

 

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. The levels stay on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4926.00 stop 4920.75. Short 4987.00 stop 4992.75.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +19 to -13 with most major world markets modestly Bearish. 

Catalysts: Trade Balance @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed-speak @ 11:00, 12:30, and 14:00. 10-year Bond Auction @ 13:01. 

Quick Tip: Watch Bonds

Of all the economic information traders watch for directional clues the bond auctions are the rising stars. Bloomberg reported Citigroup findings that the S&P 500 index has moved 1% in either direction on auction days recently. 

How can you use this data? 

Consider adjusting your entry and exit rules. Expecting a big move and seeing it manifest allows you to...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4928.50 stopped out. Buying the breakout at 4931.00 ran for 25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4922.50 stop 4918.25. Short 4919.00 stop 4923.25 if price retraces up from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +19 to +6 with sentiment mixed worldwide on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence & JOLTS @ 10:00.

Quick Tip: Mastering Trading

George Leonard noted in his book Mastery that “Our culture has become hooked on the quick fix, the life hack, efficiency. Everyone is on the hunt for that simple action algorithm that nets maximum profit with the least amount of effort.”

Sounds like “Lotto Mentality.” And unfortunately, those are the kinds of teasers you read in your emails every day. Don’t...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4885.00 stop 4881.50. Short 4867.00 stop 4871.25 if price falls below and retraces back. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +50 to +13 with Asia Bullish and the west relatively flat. 

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, Import/Export Balance @ 8:30. New Home Sales @ 10:00. Earnings season continues. 

Quick Tip: Ready to Retire?

You’ve probably heard or read the best ways to have a long and fulfilling retirement: Exercise regularly, sleep more, eat healthy, drink moderately, stop smoking, and minimize stress. 

Here’s one thing you might not have heard about: Connect with people who have the same purpose. It turns out that loneliness is a killer. 

Living in Florida I’m frequently asked...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4870.50 stop 4866.25. Short 4867.00 stop 4871.25 if price falls below and retraces back. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +21 to +7 with China/HK dragging down an otherwise moderately Bullish world. 

Catalysts: Nothing important on the economic calendar. Presidential race gets narrower.

Quick Tip: Mindset

You probably noticed that the Turning Points shared here frequently don’t trigger. Sometimes a few days can go by without a trade. 

You may be thinking, “This is not enough action for me.” 

On the contrary, this strategy provides far more setups than are freely shared, we’re just trying to get acquainted! Add in the reversal and momentum strategies and there are dozens of opportunities every trading...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4797.50 ran for 27.50 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4811.00 stop 4807.75. Short 4808.50 stop 4811.75 if price falls below and retraces back. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +50 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment. 

Catalysts: UofM Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) & Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Limit or Market

Yesterday’s entry was perfect. In fact, it was too perfect. Price turned on the entry and that means you may not have been filled on the trade. 

Fortunately, this isn’t a common occurrence. But it does happen enough that you should have contingency plans in place. 

Here’s a couple of ideas: 

1. Place your reversal orders early. The futures market fills orders based on time of...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The short at 4813.00 was high of the session and offered a 33.50-point run. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4739.00 stop 4733.25. Short 4797.50 stop 4800.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from -43 to -86 with all major world markets very Bearish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: Retail Sales & Import Prices @ 8:30. Fed’s Bowman & Barr @ 9:00. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories & Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Beige Book @ 14:00. Fed’s Williams @ 15:00. World Economic Forum in Davos (all week)

Quick Tip: Second Chances

The high-volume price levels presented here remain on the chart until they are violated. Many times the level will trigger a trade but not stop out by the end of the day, like yesterday’s chart. 

You’ll notice that this...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The buy at 4805.50 stopped out. The breakout short ran for 14.75 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4775.25 stop 4771.00. Short 4830.50 stop 4835.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +36 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment and modest volatility. 

Catalysts: PPI @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: Don’t Fight It

When trading reversal entries in this or any strategy you should carefully consider the dominant trend. Yesterday’s reversal failed immediately, and the breakout suggested saved the day for the strategy (see chart).

You can look at a higher time frame chart for confirmation of the dominant trend. You can also assess the speed of movement approaching the reversal entry. 

Start marking up you charts and saving copies for future reference. It won’t take long...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4769.00 stop 4765.25. Short 4800.50 stop 4805.50 (Buy the breakout if this short fails). 

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from +29 to -21 with most major world markets mildly Bearish. S&P futures are not. 

Catalysts: NAHB Housing Market Index @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Consistency

Here’s an important quote from Dr. Brett Steenbarger, author of many books on trader psychology and an accomplished S&P futures day trader:

“You are most likely to become consistent IN your trading if you are consistent in working ON your trading.” 

How? Preparation and review. Sports teams do this. Prepare for the opponent, play the game, watch the video reviews. 

Are you preparing...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4572.50 was filtered out during the Employment Report @ 8:30. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

The volume levels are affected by rollover today and are filtered out. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) gains from +7 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment. 

Catalysts: 10-year bond auction @ 13:01. 

Quick Tip: Futures Rollover

Futures contracts are buy/sell agreements between two parties. Every contract has a delivery date at which point the transaction ends and goods/money are exchanged. 

Many futures traders have no intention of fulfilling their contractual obligations. They’re either speculating on price direction or hedging against price changes. For these traders exiting the current contract before the delivery date and entering the next contract further out on the calendar is...

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