The Daily Market Forecast

For Mon 210913 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: After dipping below Friday’s price has rallied up (all indexes). Two takeable trades, one small loser and one small winner.

Day Session Analysis: The World sentiment is mixed. Stats are mixed as well. Common sense says follow the price action after the open. Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even.  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4481.50/4485.25. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4477.50/4478.5 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +64 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment (modest short edge).

Correlations: After analyzing correlations over multiple time periods (180, 120, 90, 60, 30 days) I observed that the numbers are all over the map. It’s not clear to me what benefit this provides for day trading. If anyone has a research idea on how to better use correlation analysis, please share.

Catalysts: No economic releases. Inflation is the big concern this week. CPI is tomorrow however individual data points are “tells”… oil trending higher above $70 and aluminum at 13-year highs. Further China tech selloff. 

Trends: 60 min UP, daily DOWN (short edge).

Chart: Low outside day: Win/Stop% about the same, longs CRUSH shorts earning 10X the profit. Opening +0.55% (short edge). $TRIN XMA stable at 1.00 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 30.25 (possibly wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 43 points on a RISING ATR of 33.17. Prior forecast around 40 points, actual 61.75. Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.