The Daily Market Forecast... Lesson Day

Today’s Lesson: Keep an open mind.

I read an article from Bloomberg the other day: “Five Traders Tell Us How to Survive a World of Disrupted Markets.” There were plenty of differences between them including chosen asset class, style, strategy, all the typical things.

There was one huge commonality, though. They all stressed keeping an open mind. Be willing to change. Markets change. Technologies change. Laws change.

Change is not always easy, though. We can get into a comfort zone and not want to leave. But we must if we’re going to grow our trading skills.

Here’s an example of why it’s so important. Sixteen months ago, I launched The Daily Market Forecast. We started trading the S&P futures using one strategy with a fixed rule set.

We’re fortunate to have many very skilled traders in our room. Everyone is encouraged to share ideas, successes, failures, anything that might help us improve. We call it Team Trading.

Because of that collective “open mind” and “willingness to change” we’re now trading multiple proven strategies across several assets and timeframes. We’ve developed and distributed numerous customized technical indicators to make our trading safer and easier.

That’s huge change! Looking back on our recorded sessions then and now you wouldn’t think it was the same trading room. Personally, I can’t wait to see all the advancements a year from now! Embrace change!

For Thu 211014 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: One small loser, one open runner already good for 15+ points.

Day Session Analysis: World sentiment overall bullish. Stats are mixed. Jobless Claims will let us know. Willing to trade either direction for now.  Thursday (both sessions combined) garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile (although lately it’s been good). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with filters (download the new Edge). Looking for credit spread ladder candidates.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4352.50/4355. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4345.50/4346.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) RISES from +14 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment with the Western markets solidly bullish (shorts should outperform longs).

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & PPI @ 8:30. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 11:00. Various Fed speakers maybe shedding light on yesterday’s minutes release (Taper Timing). Earnings season starts with the big banks.

Trends: 60 min UP, daily WEDGE leaning UP (shorts should outperform longs).

High outside day: Win/Stop% about the same, shorts delivered 20% more profit. Opening around +0.75%. $TRIN XMA up to 1.07. Long term outlook stays long.

Globex: The range of 34.75 (likely higher after Jobless data) suggests a day session range around 50 points on a FALLING ATR of 56.01. Prior forecast around 43 points, actual 46.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video. 


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