The Daily Market Forecast... Payday Theory

Today’s Lesson: Payday Friday

If you’re like most retail traders you are focused on growing your trading account so you can increase your risk and ultimately your expected reward. Taking a “paycheck” from your trading account seems like taking a step backward.

The trading account is intangible. The figures on the statement don’t mean the same to you as a tangible reward. Psychologically, you NEED to be rewarded for a job well done. Make those wins REAL.

Here’s a simple trick for getting paid, growing your account, and improving your trading skills simultaneously:

  1. Determine your payday (weekly, bi-weekly, monthly).
  2. Log your trading account balance at the start.
  3. On payday calculate your gain/loss in the account.
  4. Pay yourself a pre-determined percentage of the gain. Take nothing if you lost.

If you’re more interested in growing the account make the percentage small, maybe 10% or 20% of the gain. Even though the actual paycheck may be small, when you spend it on something tangible, YOU will change. You will FEEL different about your trading. Your confidence will soar. And when that payday arrives when you DON’T get paid, you will automatically work smarter and improve your trading. Happy spending!

For Fri 211022 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: One awesome runner that missed fill by two ticks. ☹ 

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is firmly bullish. Futures tickling ATH. Stats say shorts will outperform. Everything else says “melt up to new highs.” Willing to trade either direction. Friday (both sessions combined) garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with filters (download the new Edge). Looking at Bull Puts for spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4523.75/4526.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABVOE the equilibrium 4528.50/4529 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -36 to +57 with all major world markets bullish (shorts should outperform longs).

Catalysts: PMI @ 9:45. Powell speaks @ 11:00. Biden eases on raising corporate taxes. Evergrande made a payment.

Trends: 60 min UP, daily UP (shorts should outperform longs).

High outside day: Win/Stop% about the same, shorts delivered 20% more profit. Opening +0.10%. $TRIN XMA steady at 1.00. Long term outlook stays long.

Globex: The range of 20.75 (likely wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 36 points on a FALLING ATR of 45.07. Prior forecast around 33 points, actual 25.50.  

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video. 


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