Results of Monday's Best S&P Turning Points: The short @ 4002.25 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 4123.50 stop 4128.25. Buy 3981.00 stop 3976.50. 

Globex View: Trending up. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -36 to +36 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. Historically price will close above the open 55% of the time. 

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. SBF is in jail (duh!). 

Quick Tip: Futures Bookie? 

Sports betting is generally risk-free for the Bookie. They adjust the odds as the bets roll in to stay “delta neutral” (to steal a trading definition). 

The CME has an interesting product called an Event Contract. They look just like sports bets. For example, this morning you could bet that the S&P Futures will close above 4025. It’s at 4045 at 7:20 ET. You’ll pay $11.75 to...

Results of Friday's Best S&P Turning Points: The buy @ 3937.00 filled minutes before the session ended and only bounced for 5.25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 4002.25 stop 4006.50. Buy 3922.50 stop 3917.75. 

Globex View: Trending up. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from +50 to -36 with most major world markets bearish. Historically price will close above the open 56% of the time. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Waiting on CPI & FOMC tomorrow and Wednesday.  

Quick Tip: Everyone is a Day Trader

If you’re a position trader, buying and holding for months, maybe years, you’ll likely disagree with that statement. Even swing traders will disagree. But think of it this way, regardless of your holding period, you are buying and selling your position during the day...

Results of Thursday's Best S&P Turning Points: Neither trade idea triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 4002.25 stop 4006.50. Buy 3937.00 stop 3933.25. 

Globex View: Trading above yesterday’s high expecting a melting up or range bound day unless the catalysts are negative.  

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from to +50 with most major world markets bullish. Historically price will close below the open 54% of the time. 

Catalysts: PPI @ 8:30. Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations @ 10:00.  

Quick Tip: DeMark’s Advice

If you haven’t heard of Thomas DeMark, he is arguably one of the most influential technical traders on the planet. His client list is beyond impressive (Goldman, Citi, Tudor-Jones). He has authored dozens of proprietary technical indicators for himself and his...

Results of Wednesday's Best S&P Turning Points: Neither trade idea triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 4002.25 stop 4006.50. Buy 3862.75 stop 3857.00.

Globex View: After breaching yesterday’s low, price is making new Globex highs (7:00 ET) with all index futures showing modest gains. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -57 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment. No historical edge.   

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Not much else. 

Quick Tip: Mistakes

Day trading is my favorite style. I like to see short term results. It does require attention and focus, though. We can make mistakes and need a corrective plan for when that occurs. 

Trading the S&P futures yesterday, we started with a 26.25-point winner. Followed by an 11.50-point winner. Then an 18-point loser. Not unusual for a strategy...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The buy @ 3963.00 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 4002.25 stop 4006.50. Buy 3922.50 stop 3917.75.  

Globex View: Inside, narrow range trending down. Looking for price to melt down again today but mindful that a relief rally is just as likely. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) DUMPS from -14 to -57 with all major world markets bearish. Historically price closes LOWER than the open 56% of the time.   

Catalysts: Productivity & Costs @ 8:30. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. Gloomy 2023 predictions from big Wall Street CEOs. 

Quick Tip: Confluence with $TICK

Regardless of your day trading strategy ruleset, you’ll benefit from confluence with other information for both entries and exits. We trade several strategies in our trading...

Quick Tip: Weather Report 

Markets are like the weather. Calm winds and sunny days turn into thunderstorms or worse. Gentle trending days in the market get upset by catalysts that send volatility soaring and price action looking like an ECG. 

Some catalysts are scheduled, like the employment report on Friday that plunged the indexes. Others pop up without warning like a midday comment from a Fed Governor at a benign conference. Back in the day it was a Trump tweet. 

As day traders we certainly need to be aware of all the scheduled (potential) catalysts. We also need to accept that sometimes price will do very unexpected things and we won’t know why. Finding out why is a waste of precious time. Having a plan of action when price action is unacceptable for your strategy is best. 

In our trade room we capture plenty of data about every trade setup across multiple strategies. Catalysts included. This data is analyzed to update...

Quick Tip: Novel Exits Part 2

Yesterday I shared the idea that a good exit may be an opposing signal from a different strategy that you use and know has edge. Reprinted here in italics. 

Let’s say you’re profitably long using a trend strategy and your reversal strategy is signaling short. You have choices, which is better than none.

1. Ignore the reversal signal. 

2. Exit your entire position.

3. Scale out of your position.

Scaling out is a good choice. You’re banking profit and staying in the primary trend. The key is selecting the strategies you’re using. They all need "edge." 

One of our trading team members offered further choices that expand this, and I wanted to share them with you while the idea is fresh in your mind. 

4. Exit (or scale out) at the reversal signal, anticipating re-entering wholly or partially on a pullback. After all, you expect a reaction to the reversal...

Quick Tip: Novel Exits

All the money is made or lost in the exit. Significant research, documentation and review is essential to finding what works best for your style. 

One exit we find productive in our trading room is a counter signal from a different strategy.

Let’s say you’re profitably long using a trend strategy and your reversal strategy is signaling short. You have choices, which is better than none.

1. Ignore the reversal signal. 

2. Exit your entire position.

3. Scale out of your position.

Scaling out is a good choice. You’re banking profit and staying in the primary trend. The key is selecting the strategies you’re using. They all need "edge." 

Join us today, December 1st @ 12:30 PM for a live real money trading demo where we’ll show you how this flexible exit alternative works. Click here to register. 

Wednesday’s Best S&P...

Tuesday’s Results: Neither suggested level triggered.

Quick Tip: Proactive Waiting

Plenty of time in trading is spent waiting. Waiting for a setup, waiting for an economic release, waiting for a profit target. Lots of waiting.

Here’s how to make this “downtime” productive: Get proactive. Get in the habit of asking “What if…?” questions. Answer them. In doing so you’ll be making decisions in advance and be able to act on the spot. No wondering, guessing, procrastinating or flat-out missing the trade. You’ve committed with foresight.

Here's a simple example: Price is slowly moving sideways. Your entry price to buy is far enough away that you don’t expect to see it trigger soon. Suddenly price plunges. The speed candle down is looking powerful.

Now is the time to anticipate, be proactive. Will it continue or reverse? Do you see any other chart features that could stall it? Accelerate it? What are the likely outcomes?

1. Slam...

Subject: Whipping fear.

You know that a confident trader is a winning trader, and a fearful trader is a losing trader. Part of your personal development plan should be eliminating your fears. Yes, fears. Plural. You can have more than one. Over the years teaching traders I’ve noticed different types of fear.

1. The most obvious is fear of loss. Managing your risk, pre-determining your “risk number” (the amount that negatively affects you either financially or psychologically) is the simple answer. Everyone can do this.
2. Fear of being wrong. This is a huge problem with traders and not so obvious. Look back to grade school. The teacher asked the class a question and only a few hands were raised. Not yours. Did you not know the answer? Or were you scared to be wrong in front of your friends? Fear of being wrong paralyzes some traders even when their risk number doesn’t.
3. Fear of not being in control. We all know people who are most comfortable when in control. They...