Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. The levels stay on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4926.00 stop 4920.75. Short 4987.00 stop 4992.75.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +25 to +19 with mixed sentiment and increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Mester @ 12:00. Plenty of earnings. 

Quick Tip: Sequencing 

If trading is 80% psychological that leaves 20% to the edge your strategy has. We really don’t know if the 80% figure is accurate but you’ll hear a big number like that from many skilled traders and coaches. Regardless the accuracy, how we behave as traders is vitally important. 

Back when racquetball was popular I was a competitive player and found a coach to improve my performance. Here’s the dialog from “lesson one.” 

...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4926.00 stop 4920.75. Short 4987.00 stop 4992.75.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from zero to +25 with most major world markets mildly Bullish.

Catalysts: Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Reinvention

Great performers, traders included, never quit when the inevitable roadblocks and challenges arise. They adjust, learn from their mistakes, and move forward. 

You’re heard the term “reinvent yourself.” Out of favor actors do it. Corporations do it. Sometimes traders must do it. 

Like many traders who enjoyed the Tech Bubble in the late ‘90’s, I was trading a momentum strategy that printed money. It was simple and easy. Even during...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4909.75 offered a 9.25-point run. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4892.50 stop 4886.75. Short 4887.50 stop 4893.25 if price falls below and retraces to entry. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +19 to zero with sentiment mixed. 

Catalysts: Non-Farm Payrolls @ 8:30. Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Finding Edge

Every trader and any worthwhile educator of traders talks about edge. It’s what the casinos have. You can win any given day, but they will win every day. Edge = advantage. 

Edge is also mysterious to many traders. How do you find edge? Research is the best start but what are you looking for to validate it? 

Here’s a simple exercise to find and validate the edge in any trading strategy. 

1. Determine...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The buy at 4885.00 only reversed for 5.25 points during the end of Powell’s Q&A. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4835.25 stop 4829.50. Short 4909.75 stop 4913.75. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +6 to +19 with sentiment mixed and low volatility… except the BSE in India up over 8% the last two days. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI/Prices @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Exit Ideas   

I’ve heard real estate investors say that the money is made when you buy right. While that’s partially true In the markets, the liquidity and volatility we have that they don’t means the real money is made (or lost) in the exit, not the entry. 

Losses are easy. They’re pre-planned and acceptable...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4885.00 stop 4881.50. Short 4948.00 stop 4953.25

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +6 to zero with sentiment mixed worldwide on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Change @ 8:15. Employment Cost Index @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement & Press Conference @ 14:00/14:30. 

Quick Tip: One Good Habit?

In his excellent book Atomic Habits author James Clear named chapter 20 The Downside of Creating Good Habits. Darn good title! 

Here’s the gist of it: once we practice something enough to become skilled and automatic we become less aware of improving it. We stop looking for the mistakes. After all, once it’s a habit you’re not thinking about it...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4931.00 stop 4927.75 if price retraces from above to enter. Short 4928.50 stop 4931.75. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +6 to +19 with sentiment mixed worldwide on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar.  

Quick Tip: Risk/Reward 

Dan Campbell coached the Detroit Lions to their first championship game in decades. They came out on fire and whipped the 49ers in the first half leading 24 – 7. 

Then Dan forgot about his risk/reward ratio. He chose to go for it on 4th and short instead of kicking the 3-point field goal. While he still had a big lead! That failed. 

Still forgetting about risk/reward, he did it again. That failed as well. 

They lost 34-31. 

6 easy points missed would...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4885.00 stop 4881.50. Short 4882.25 stop 4885.75 if price falls below and retraces back. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from +7 to +50 with most major world markets bullish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: MFG & Services PMI Flash @ 9:45. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Earnings surprises (ASML kills it). China commits to stimulus. 

Quick Tip: Overbought?

Price soars way higher, it’s overbought. Price plunges way lower, it’s oversold. There are many indicators and chart patterns for verifying these conditions. 

The rub is these conditions can and do persist. Exiting too soon isn’t all that bad. All you did was make a little less profit. Entering the reversal too soon is trouble. 

The...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered, levels stay on the chart.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4870.50 stop 4866.25. Short 4867.00 stop 4871.25 if price falls below and retraces back. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +7 in a world of lower volatility and mixed sentiment. 

Catalysts: Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. China is looking at a stock market rescue package. 

Quick Tip: Market States

Trading in harmony with the bigger picture trend is one of the golden rules. That’s only half your concern, though. The other variable you should consider is volatility. 

Combining trend and volatility you arrive at the 4 Market States: 

Trend with low volatility.

Trend with high volatility.

Ranging with low volatility.

Ranging with high volatility. 

Few, if any, strategies work well in all...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4870.50 stop 4866.25. Short 4867.00 stop 4871.25 if price falls below and retraces back. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +21 to +7 with China/HK dragging down an otherwise moderately Bullish world. 

Catalysts: Nothing important on the economic calendar. Presidential race gets narrower.

Quick Tip: Mindset

You probably noticed that the Turning Points shared here frequently don’t trigger. Sometimes a few days can go by without a trade. 

You may be thinking, “This is not enough action for me.” 

On the contrary, this strategy provides far more setups than are freely shared, we’re just trying to get acquainted! Add in the reversal and momentum strategies and there are dozens of opportunities every trading...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4797.50 ran for 27.50 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4811.00 stop 4807.75. Short 4808.50 stop 4811.75 if price falls below and retraces back. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +50 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment. 

Catalysts: UofM Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) & Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Limit or Market

Yesterday’s entry was perfect. In fact, it was too perfect. Price turned on the entry and that means you may not have been filled on the trade. 

Fortunately, this isn’t a common occurrence. But it does happen enough that you should have contingency plans in place. 

Here’s a couple of ideas: 

1. Place your reversal orders early. The futures market fills orders based on time of...