The Daily Market Forecast

For Tue 210831 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: More new highs but Volume Profile didn’t pay out missing the better opportunity waiting for the retracement… two takeable trades, one small winner, one stopped.

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. No big obvious catalysts. Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW credit spreads to start a ladder.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4529.75/4532.75. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4521.75/4524 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from +29 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment (no edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.90, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. Globex charts show all three contracts looking about the same (downtrends, no leader for a change in direction yet).

Catalysts: Home Price Indexes @ 9:00. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Consumer Confidence @ 10:00. Nothing else obvious. Oil likely range-bound waiting on tomorrow’s OPEC meeting.

Trends: 60 min DOWN, daily UP (long edge).

Chart: High outside day: Win/Stop% about the same, shorts delivered 20% more profit. Opening flat. $TRIN XMA stable at 0.98 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 20.25 (possibly higher by the open) suggests a day session range around 35 points on a RISING ATR of 33.29. Prior forecast around 26 points, actual 24.00. Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.