The Daily Market Forecast

For Tue 210914 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price is range-bound between volume levels. The set/forget long trade off the CPL is still open running for 13 points so far.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment leans bearish and that means buy-the-dip. HOWEVER, CPI @ 8:30 will certainly determine the early trend. Stats say LONG is best. Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to initiate a ladder.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4450.50/4455. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4460.75/4461.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) FADES from +14 to -29 in a world of mixed, bearish leaning sentiment (long edge).

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. All eyes on CPI. Oil supply expected low for a month or so, now trading over $71. Economic rebound from Covid gets slower expectancy.

Trends: 60 min RANGE forming a WEDGE and we are right ON the apex 4461.75, daily DOWN (no edge).

Chart: Inside day: Win/Stop% about the same, longs delivered 40% more profit. Opening flat (no edge). $TRIN XMA stable at 0.96 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 18.50 (likely wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 35 points on a RISING ATR of 35.28. Prior forecast around 43 points, actual 49.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video. 




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