For Mon 210913 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: After dipping below Friday’s price has rallied up (all indexes). Two takeable trades, one small loser and one small winner.

Day Session Analysis: The World sentiment is mixed. Stats are mixed as well. Common sense says follow the price action after the open. Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even.  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4481.50/4485.25. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4477.50/4478.5 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +64 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment (modest short edge).

Correlations: After analyzing correlations over multiple time periods (180, 120, 90, 60, 30 days) I observed that the...

For Fri 210910 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price is drifting up. No trades taken based on reward/risk. Two winners documented with a third trade open no targets hit yet.  

Day Session Analysis: The world flipped to a solid BULLISH sentiment. Stats point to shorts working better than longs, but both should be taken. Mindful that we’re opening in a congested area and likely will wait for Volume Profile entries. Friday (both sessions combined garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%).  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4495/4501.50. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4501.75/4503 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -57 to +64 with all major world markets soundly bullish (short...

For Thu 210909 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Gorgeous session with a short trade from 4509.50 running 24-points and still open. Only 3-ticks adverse move. Nice comeback from yesterday. 

Day Session Analysis: Bearish sentiment continues. Mixed signals. Long term outlook reverses quickly to HOLD. Looking to trade in either direction with good reward/risk.  Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today to start a ladder (leaning toward Bear Calls).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4509.50/4513.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4507.75/4509.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -29 to -57 in an increasingly bearish world...

For Wed 210908 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: TOUGH session with 3 takeable trades, all losers. Frequently these streaks are followed by wins in the day session.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment turns bearish. Mixed signals leaning SHORT. Long term outlook gets CAUTIOUS. Looking to JUMP on short signals given them extra room to run.  Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today (focusing on Bear Calls).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4517.50/4521. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and WITHIN the equilibrium 4519.75/4525.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +7 to -29 in a mildly bearish world (long edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.89, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.83. No tells from...

For Tue 210907 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Drifting slowly down from the highs. Several congested levels. No trading over holiday.

Day Session Analysis: With no clear catalyst another melt-up or range-bound session is expected.  Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even.  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking (hard) for attractive SPXW premium today.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4528.75/4531.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4531.25/4534 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to +7 with Asia very bullish and the western world mildly bearish (no edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.89, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.90. ES/CL/JY all trending down suggesting JY may reverse up.

Catalysts: No economic releases. Nothing big...

For Fri 210903 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trading modestly higher. One trade taken, still open, with two targets in the bag. 

Day Session Analysis: Drifting higher (almost daily) is unlikely to change without a big catalyst. Today’s Payrolls report is the key. A spike suggests the Fed may taper quicker, a drop suggests slower, and on target suggests we get over to Costco early for our Labor Day ribs before they’re out of stock. Not trading until that report is digested. Friday (both sessions combined garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%).  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to ADD to a nice credit spread ladder from yesterday.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4535/4540. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4532/4534 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The...

For Thu 210902 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trading modestly higher, two takeable trades, one small loser and one still open with one target in the bag. 

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. Jobless Claims will set the early trend. Not trading until that report is digested. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to ladder credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4526.25/4528.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4526/4527.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +64 to +21 in a world of low volatility, mildly bullish sentiment (modest short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil...

For Wed 210901 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trading higher, one takeable trade, two targets in the bag and still open.

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. No big obvious catalysts. Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW credit spreads.

The Mortgage Payment trade is currently profitable for both SPY calls and TLT puts. 

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4518.25/4522.25. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4522.25/4527.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from zero to +64 with all major world markets solidly bullish (short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.90, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. No obvious tells.

Catalysts: ADP...

For Tue 210831 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: More new highs but Volume Profile didn’t pay out missing the better opportunity waiting for the retracement… two takeable trades, one small winner, one stopped.

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. No big obvious catalysts. Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW credit spreads to start a ladder.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4529.75/4532.75. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4521.75/4524 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from +29 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment (no edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.90, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. Globex charts show all three...

For Mon 210830 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Very slow session but another new high. One takeable trade that stopped out.

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4504.25/4506.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4493.25/4496.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases up from zero to +29 in a mildly bullish world with low volatility (short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.91, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. Globex charts show oil breaking a downtrend line and the S&P remaining flat, if oil leads the S&P should rise. Yen is flat saying nothing.

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