Yesterday’s results: Buying 5781.50 picked the bottom of the session and ran for 26.75 points just before the close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No high-probability levels today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dips from +86 to +57 with all major world markets Bullish except the S&P futures. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment (revised) @ 10:00. Fed’s Bowman @ 13:15. 

Quick Tip: Trailing Stops

The technique of adjusting your stop loss so it follows or “trails” price while moving in your direction is attractive. There are several ways to place a trailing stop. The first decision you must make is whether you want your platform to automatically adjust it or you to manually adjust it. 

For automatic trailing stops any decent trading platform will allow you to enter the trailing stop by points, dollars or percentage. If your initial stop was 4 points away, let that be the trailing stop. Simple, but that doesn’t adjust for volatility changes. 

If yo...

Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5781.50 stop 5775.75. No short level today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from +7 to +86 with all major world markets very Bullish on China’s commitment to stimulus. 

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims & Durable Goods, @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Powell speaks (pre-recorded) @ 9:20. Yellen speaks @ 11:15. Multiple other Fed speakers all day. 

Quick Tip: Motivation

To succeed in trading (actually, anything in life) you must be motivated. There will always be setbacks, frustrations, losses, failures, and rejections. If you’re not motivated you won’t persist. You’ll quit and carry that psychological “loss” with you. Collect enough of those and you’ll be miserable. 

The answer is to get and stay motivated. But how? Find your unsatisfied need. You don’t require motivation for anything that you’re already satisfied with. You don’t even think about it. If you have enough money for acce...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5775.50 was only good for a 5-point bounce if filled. The short idea never triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5755.75 stop 5752.25. No short level today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +71 to +7 with sentiment mixed on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: New Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Kugler @ 16:00. 

Quick Tip: Synergy

In Stephen Covey’s bestseller, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, the 6th habit is Synergize. The concept is that two (or more) things working together produce a result that is better than the sum. 

Think about this: If everyone agreed with you about the subject at hand, would there ever be any improvement to the subject (process, strategy, plan, etc.)? No change, no synergy.  

That is precisely why you should embrace disagreement… from a constructive viewpoint. Different opinions and outlooks, when approached properly can lead to synergistic results. 

No one knows it all. ...

Friday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5705.75 stop 5700.00. No short level today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +7 with sentiment mixed and volatility low. 

Catalysts: S&P Flash MFG/Services PMI @ 9:45. Fed’s Bostic @ 8:00, Goolsbee @ 10:15, Kashkari @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Expectations 

“What are you struggling with?” was the question I asked a group of traders. One woman said she had expectation challenges. She felt she needed to acknowledge that every trade won't be a home run, or “10 to 1” as she phrased it. 

I respect her self-awareness. Expectations is not a commonly voiced trading challenge. But it is real. You can expect too much and foster disappointment. You can expect too little and minimize your profits. Neither view is healthy for your ultimate results. 

If you are documenting all the trades of your strategies (taken or not) then you will have hard evidence and know what to expect most of the time. The challenge ...

Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5705.75 stop 5700.00. No short level today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +93 to +7 with Asia Bullish and the west modestly Bearish. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Fed’s Harker speaks @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Choices

The first serious sports car I bought was painted gold. It was the only one of that model the dealer had at the time and they were hard to get. I didn’t love the color, but I really wanted the car. 

Most of the time we have choices and that’s a good thing. Traders have plenty of choices. Maybe too many. Which asset to trade, how many shares/contracts, entries, exits, etc. That’s why you should have a plan and stick to your rules. 

One of the choices I’ve noticed many traders don’t have is which strategy to execute. It seems they learn one and stick with it. Market conditions change and not all strategies work well in all markets. Having no choice leaves yo...

Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from +8 to +93 with all major world markets very Bullish. Contrarian alert (there will be profit taking, maybe today). 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Herd Following

Trend following as a trading strategy is effective and popular among hedge funds. But they don’t all use the same algorithm. They want to be different enough to compete for better returns and the new money to manage that will come pouring in. 

With AI gaining popularity in the trading world, you can imagine that one day there might be no one to trade against. As AI matures, everyone will have access to “all knowledge.” Why wouldn’t everyone use the best rule set? 

This is an interesting challenge that is on the mind of Gary Gensler, head of the SEC. In a Bloomberg article he warned that with AI “too many brok...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5698 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5630.00 stop 5626.25 (filtered out during FOMC release between 14:00 and 15:00). No short suggestion. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +33 to +8 with sentiment mixed. Waiting on FOMC. 

Catalysts: Building Permits & Housing Starts @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Rate Decision @ 14:00, press conference @ 14:30. 

Quick Tip: Don’t Retire

You’ve probably heard or read the best ways to have a long and fulfilling retirement: Exercise regularly, sleep more, eat healthy, drink moderately, stop smoking, and minimize stress. 

Here’s one thing you might not have heard about: Connect with people who have the same purpose. It turns out that loneliness is a killer. 

Living in Florida I’m frequently asked when out socially if I’m retired. I’m not and never will be, in the classic sense. Why? To keep my mind sharp. Learning and reading are great, but nothing beats interaction with peop...

Yesterday’s results: No price levels available due to contract rollover. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5698.00 stop 5693.25. No short levels above. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from zero to +33 with most major world markets Bullish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: Retail Sales @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories, Housing Market Index & Fed’s Logan @ 10:00.

Quick Tip: Complacent?  

We all trade to win and make a profit. The ups and downs happen along the way. The time to get laser-focused is when you’re feeling like you don’t need to. 

The recent rally in the S&P has the stock indexes at or near all-time highs. Our team’s swing trading portfolio had some incredible gains last week. One trade earned over 700% in two days. It’s natural when everything is effortlessly going your way to relax and enjoy the ride. 

But complacency is a dangerous condition. It precedes fear. You’ve likely heard Buffett’s famous quote “We try to be greedy wh...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No price levels today due to contract rollover. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +21 to zero with sentiment mixed and volatility very low. 

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: Futures Rollover

Futures contracts are buy/sell agreements between two parties. Every contract has a delivery date at which point the transaction ends and goods/money are exchanged. 

Many futures traders have no intention of fulfilling their contractual obligations. They’re either speculating on price direction or hedging against price changes. For these traders exiting the current contract before the delivery date and entering the next contract further out on the calendar is called rollover. 

For stock index futures the rollover is quarterly near the middle of March, June, September and December. The symbols will change to H, M, U, Z respectively. Starting today we’ll be trading the Decem...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5569.75 stop 5564.00. Short 5688.25 stop 5693.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +57 to +21 with most major world markets mildly Bullish on declining volatility. 

Catalysts: Import Prices@ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: More Price Levels

This blog suggests two good setups every day. One long, one short. They are not the only setups that are presented from the volume-at-price analysis. 

Every trading day offers a different “map” of volume levels. They only work for so long, then they’re taken off the chart. That happens when the level is stopped out. 

Hint: Save the levels that didn’t trigger a trade or stop out. They’re good until they’re violated. 

In Wednesday’s blog post the suggested short was 5581.25. New levels were offered on Thursday. This doesn’t mean the prior level “came off” the charts. Yesterday during premarket trading, the suggested turnin...