Yesterday’s results: No trades suggested. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5936.25 stop 5931.25. Short 5932.00 stop 5937.00 if price retraces back from below (filtered out during FOMC volatility). 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases up from +36 to +50 with most major world markets Bullish. J

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Preliminary NFP @ 8:30. Wholesale Inventories @ 10:00. FOMC Statement @ 14:00, Press Conference @ 14:30. 

Quick Tip: Confirming Trend

If you trade a trend strategy you know that the biggest challenge is filtering out the whipsaw, range-bound conditions. Arguably the king of using Wilders’s RSI indicator for trend identification was the late Andrew Cardwell. 

His quote applies to all trading but especially for trend trades: “You do not have to make a lot of trades you just need to make a few good trades.”

Cardwell introduced the concept of “Range Shift” using RSI to determine bullish versus bearish conditions. Basically, RSI ranges from 40 to 80 during...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +50 to +71 with all major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: International Trade Balance @ 8:30. S&P Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. 10-year Bond Auction @ 13:00. Election Day. 

Important: Check your broker’s policy on day-trading margin today. TradeStation requires full margin for the next 3 days! What does that tell you about volatility expectations? 

Quick Tip: Losing Enough? 

A popular formula for determining your risk on any given trade is the Fixed Percentage Rule. You pick a percentage, usually 2% or less, of your trading account and that is the most you can risk on each trade.  

It works great because as your account grows your risk can increase giving you the opportunity for greater rewards. Conversely, if you’re in a drawdown you will be risking less until it ends. 

While that formula is fine...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5789.50 stopped out. The short idea didn’t trigger.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5705.75 stop 5699.00. Short 5696.50 stop 5702.25 if price retraces up from below.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -43 to +21 with most major world markets Bullish on relatively low volatility. 

Catalysts: Non-Farm Payrolls @ 8:30. S&P MFG PMI Final @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Time Horizon

Establishing the time horizon for your trades is critical. You’re committing capital, which is limited, to get a result. Deciding on the win or loss amount is not enough. You should have a “time” stop as well to free up the capital for another opportunity. 

Here’s an example: 

Our swing trading strategy for equities and options utilizes a key catalyst for stock selection: Large Insider buying. Why? Because Insiders know best about the prospects of their company. Historical research validates this. 

Large options speculators are another great leadin...

Yesterday’s results: Shorting 5865.00 ran for 19.50 points (see chart). The long idea didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5789.50 stop 5786.25. Short 5861.50 stop 5865.50. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at -43 with most major world markets Bearish on relatively low volatility. 

Catalysts: Core PCE, Employment Cost Index, Personal Income & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. AMZN & AAPL after the close. 

Quick Tip: Scared? 

There is no room for fear in trading. Yet we all have to deal with the knee-jerk reaction of fear as humans. My favorite quote on the subject is “Everything you want is on the other side of fear.” 

Here’s some quick tangible fixes for your fears… 

Losing Money? – Bet less. 

Being wrong? – Think in probabilities.

Not Understanding? – Get trained. 

Emotional Reactions? – Journal more. 

Time and Effort Required? – Set achievable goals. 

On a side note, if you are a swing trader of stocks or options you’re invited to at...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5847.75 stopped out. Shorting 5891.00 filled in the Globex @ 20:42 ET and ran for 15+ points, still open. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5908.75 stop 5903.75 if price retraces down from above. Short 5865.00 stop 5869.75 if price retraces up from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +21 to -43 with most major world markets Bearish on rising volatility.

Catalysts: ADP Payrolls @ 8:15. GDP @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. GOOG revenue/earnings beat gives AI a boost. 

Quick Tip: Insider Influence

Your trading toolbox probably includes tools for the analysis of technical, fundamental, and sentiment data. All good. 

Significant research by Wall Street and academia has proven that Insider buying is predictive of positive abnormal future stock price performance. Of course, when that abnormal positive move happens varies widely and understanding that is key to successfully using Insider buying data....

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered in a narrow range day. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5847.75 stop 5842.25. Short 5891.00 stop 5896.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) dips from +36 to +21 with most major world markets mildly Bullish on a low volatility.

Catalysts: Goods Trade Balance @ 8:30. Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence & JOLTS @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: 7 Good Reasons

If you read this blog daily you know that our team trades live daily in a multi-strat environment. Trading multiple strategies simultaneously is not for everyone. In fact, few of our team trade all the strategies. 

So why learn and monitor them? 

1. Diversity. Markets change character. They’re either trending or not, volatile, or not. No single strategy works well in all those conditions. Having the choice to deploy the most appropriate strategy gives you flexibility and edge. 

2. Abundance. If you find yourself breaking your rules to get in the action, you’ll benefit from...

Friday’s results: Buying 5851.50 was only good for a 4.25-point scalp. The short idea didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5847.75 stop 5842.25. Short 5904.50 stop 5909.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +14 to +36 with all major world markets neutral to mildly Bullish on low volatility.

Catalysts: Dallas Fed MFG Index @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: Alpha Searching 

Our day trading team meets every morning between 9:00 and 10:30 AM ET to swap ideas on trades across several strategies. Some days are very active, others quiet. Lately it seems the market has chopped sideways during our sessions and made the better moves later in the day. 

As the host it’s challenging to find commentary when setups aren’t setting up!

For those that also swing trade options, there is plenty to talk about. Our swing trading team only meets once weekly but when you’re running a portfolio of trades with more candidates available almost daily, the analysis and review are plentiful...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5939.00 stopped out. The short suggestion didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5851.50 stop 5846.25. Short 5904.50 stop 5909.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +7 to +14 with mixed sentiment on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Durable Goods @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (revised) @ 10:00. Fed’s Collins @ 11:00. Final day of IMF meeting. 

Quick Tip: Change It Up

Great performers, traders included, never quit when the inevitable roadblocks and challenges arise. They learn from their mistakes, adjust, and move forward. 

You’re heard the term “reinvent yourself.” Out of favor actors do it. Corporations do it. Sometimes traders must do it. 

Like many traders who enjoyed the Tech Bubble in the late ‘90’s, I was trading a momentum strategy that printed money. It was simple and easy. Even during the crash, it performed well going short. Then it stopped working. The volatility dried up and the risk reward...