Trade Aptitude

 

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4598.50 was only good for a 6-point scalp but the general area held as the high including through the weekend. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4557.50 stop 4551.75. Short 4628.50 stop 4632.75. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) falls from -14 to -50 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Factory Orders @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Get Fearful

We all trade to win and make a profit. The ups and downs happen along the way. The time to get laser-focused is when you’re feeling like you don’t need to. 

The recent rally in the S&P has us closing in on all-time highs. Our team’s swing trading portfolio using Insiders Buys and Unusual Options Activity (long only tradessoared last week. It’s natural when everything...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4551.00 was only good for a 4-point scalp. The breakout short failed. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4557.50 stop 4551.75. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) falls from +50 to -14 in a world of mixed sentiment. 

Catalysts: Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI & Prices @ 10:00.  Fed’s Goolsbee @ 10:00, Powell @ 11:00 and 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Measured Moves

Price tends to move in impulses and corrections. The impulse is the primary direction of the trend. The correction is the minor countertrend move. 

Get in the habit of looking to the left on your trading chart and measuring these impulses and corrections. Frequently you’ll see patterns that repeat. 

For example, an 8-point move higher, followed by a 3-point move lower, then...

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Trade Aptitude

day trading futures options Nov 30, 2023

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The short at 4598.50 missed filling by 6 ticks. â˜¹

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4551.00 stop 4546.25. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -14 to +50 with all major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Core PCE Price Index (primary Fed inflation measure), Jobless Claims & Personal Income/Spending @ 8:30. FOMC Williams @ 9:15. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. OPEC meeting all day. 

Quick Tip: Find Your Filters 

Are there market conditions that your strategy performs better or worse in? Probably so. Price is either trending or not and volatile or not. These are very different conditions and knowing with evidence how your strategy performs in each of them is important. 

Why? Because you’ll be able to...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4521.00 stop 4517.00. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -29 to -14 with Asia Bearish and the west Bullish. 

Catalysts: GDP @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Beige Book @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: UOA

Unusual Options Activity (UOA) is a great leading indicator of price. There are different ways to interpret exactly what qualifies an option to be “unusual” and how to utilize them in your trade selection. 

The foundation is an extreme volume spike relative to small open interest (existing contracts not yet closed out). 

Technical analysts generally agree that volume leads price, so this basis makes sense. If a stock is trading at $30 and massive volume occurs today in the $40...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4551 filled in the Globex session early this morning running for 9.50 points so far, still open. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4521.00 stop 4517.00. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -43 to -29 with most major world markets mildly Bearish. 

Catalysts: Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence, Richmond MFG Index, and Fed’s Goolsbee @ 10:00. More Fed speakers @ 10:05, 10:45, 13:05, and 15:30. 

Quick Tip: Mastering Trading

George Leonard noted in his book Mastery that “Our culture has become hooked on the quick fix, the life hack, efficiency. Everyone is on the hunt for that simple action algorithm that nets maximum profit with the least amount of effort.”

Sounds like “Lottery Mentality.” And...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No trades triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4551.00 stop 4546.25. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +7 to -43 with most major world markets mildly Bearish. 

Catalysts: New Home Sales @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Lead or Lag?

The never-ending challenge in trading is forecasting future price direction using lagging information from technical indicators. Better than nothing but not good enough!

Significant research has proven that there are two superb Leading Indicators of stock price. Insider buying and Unusual Options Activity. 

Combining the two is the perfect addition to your stock/options trading plan. Learn how in this free training sessionClick here. 

No disappointments!

...

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Trade Aptitude

Uncategorized Nov 22, 2023

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4547.50 offered a 4-point scalp and the breakout did similar on a very narrow range day. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4521.00 stop 4517.00. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -29 to +7 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Durable Goods @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment (revised) @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. NVDA beats, drops, and rebounds. Holiday doldrums likely. 

Quick Tip: Be Grateful

You have losing trades, streaks, and even drawdowns from time to time. Deal with it by focusing on all you should be grateful for. 

Happy Thanksgiving!

Trade Fearlessly,

Mike Siewruk

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4547.50 stop 4543.25. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +7 to -29 with the major world markets flat or modestly Bearish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. FOMC Meeting Minutes @ 14:00. NVDA earnings after the close. 

Quick Tip: Be Different

“If you set out to be successful at something and you don’t know how to do it, look around at what everybody else is doing, and don’t do that…” Earl Nightingale

This advice is especially true with trading. If everyone traded the same way there would be no counter parties. We need plenty of different styles and opposing viewpoints for the markets to exist. 

If you’re still struggling...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4517.00 caught the bottom of the day and offered 17.50 maximum before closing the session +11.00 points.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4521.00 stop 4517.00. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to +7 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility.   

Catalysts: Nothing important on the economic calendar. 

Quick Tip: Insider Buying? 

Back on May 3rd of this year I blogged about how effective using Insider Buying is for future stock performance. On that day there was widespread Insider buying in the banking industry during the plunge from a few bank failures. 

Here’s how those trades worked out: 

TCBI +38% before settling +17% now.

LKFN +18% now. 

ZION +62% before...

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