Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4357.50 caught the top of the session and ran for 15 points to the close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4228.50 stop 4223.25. Short 4378.50 stop 4383.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +42 to -21 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed speakers @ 9:00, 9:15 & 13:30. IMF Meeting. Israeli war. Oil jumps. Earnings concerns.

Quick Tip: Trading Athletics

Once you’re proficient in trading a strategy it’s time to add another to your plan. 

Athletes do. There is no successful sports team or individual athlete who is a one-trick pony. Their game plan changes with the opponent. 

I had the privilege of teaching a retired pro football player trading. He was having a hard time understanding why we were putting so much...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered, and the levels remain on the chart.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4228.50 stop 4223.25. Short 4357.50 stop 4363.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +42 with all major world markets mildly Bullish. China still closed for holiday. 

Catalysts: Non-Farm Payrolls @ 8:30. Expect volatility. 

Quick Tip: Fold More Often

There are many similarities between trading and poker. Larry Phillips, in his book Zen and the Art of Poker, starts in chapter 1 telling you to fold more often. Wait for the best cards. Be patient. 

Doesn’t sound too exciting, does it? In fact, most gamblers would run for the door looking for action elsewhere. 

Successful trading, like poker, isn’t about excitement. It’s about winning over the long haul. 

Last night...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4277.25 stopped out after a 5.50-point bounce. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4228.50 stop 4223.25. Short 4357.50 stop 4363.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -33 to -8 with Asia Bearish and the west mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change @ 8:15. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. OPEC Meeting (all day). Bond yields up. 

Quick Tip: More Risk

You certainly have a risk management plan. Without it you’ll fail at trading sooner rather than later. New traders think their chosen stop loss order is their risk management plan. Important, but not nearly enough. Here’s more risks you need to cover in your plan: Trade, Psychological, Market, Liquidity, Strategy, Technology, and Brokerage.

This game is looking riskier...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggestion triggered and the levels remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4277.25 stop 4271.75. Short 4378.50 stop 4383.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -40 to -33 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: JOLTS @ 10:00. Same worries: Inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates, recession, and geopolitical events. Sentiment is not Bullish. 

Quick Tip: Continue or Stop? 

If your trading strategy has been suffering lately you should have been reducing your position size if not shelving it completely until the drawdown appears over. 

Choosing to continue trading with smaller size, while a valid rule, does present an expectation challenge. 

For example, if you started trading the strategy with a $10K commitment and after...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggestion triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4266.00 stop 4260.75. Short 4378.50 stop 4383.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -36 to +50 with most major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Core PCE Price Index & Personal Income @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: When to Trade What

One of the many benefits of trading on a team of solid traders is the exchange of ideas. Call it collective wisdom.

Several traders on our team don’t trade the open. That doesn’t mean there aren’t strategies that work well at the open, like gap fades or runs. Others only trade and bank their day early, not willing to risk giving it back in the afternoon. 

These traders, through experience, have found their preference. Neither...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4299.25 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4266.00 stop 4260.75. Short 4367.50 stop 4371.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +29 to -36 in a Bearish leaning world on increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: GDP & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. FedSpeak @ 9:00 & 13:00. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Powell speaks @ 16:00. Government shutdown, spiking oil, UAW strike, where’s the hurricane? 

Quick Tip: Niche Trading

Dr. Brett Steenbarger, in his book Enhancing Trader Performance (must read), writes about the importance of FIRST finding your niche in trading. 

Too many new traders spend their time and money trying to find a strategy or indicator that makes money. They think that’s all there is to trading successfully. 

The most basic and important...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4307.50 picked the bottom of the session and ran for 8.25 points at the close. Holding into the Globex session saw a 29-point run, still open. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4288.75 stop 4285.25. Short 4367.50 stop 4371.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -57 to +29 with most major world markets mildly Bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Durable Goods @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Government shutdown drama. 

Quick Tip: Swing This Way

Most swing traders use technical indicators and chart patterns to enter and exit their trades. 

Here’s an interesting twist: Starting with high quality high yield (dividend) stocks, use the yield to time entries and exits. Buy when the yield is high (price has dropped) and sell when the yield falls...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4339.25 delivered 39.25 points to end the session at the suggested short level of 4378.50. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4307.50 stop 4303.25. Short 4378.50 stop 4383.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -36 to -57 with all major world markets Bearish.  

Catalysts: Home Price Index @ 9:00. New Home Sales, Richmond MFG Index, and Consumer Confidence @ 10:00. Government shutdown news.  

Quick Tip: End of Session Exit

If you bought yesterday’s suggestion (see chart) and let it ride to the close you would be very pleased. Watching the open trade all day would have been difficult. There were many dips and just about any trailing stop would have limited your potential. 

There is one great trader I know of who uses the End of Session for many...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither level triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4339.25 stop 4334.00. Short 4378.50 stop 4383.25

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +21 to -36 with most major world markets Bearish.  

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Trouble intensifies for Chinese Real Estate stocks. 

Quick Tip: Waiting 

I grew up in Michigan. A local saying about the weather was “Wait a day, it’ll change.” Now I live in Florida where during the rainy season you can drop your waiting time to an hour!

Markets are very similar. They trend up or down and then move sideways. Back and forth. Patience pays off and impulsivity gets hammered. 

This cyclicality applies to your strategy performance too. You’ll have winning streaks, flat periods, and losing streaks....

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4396.50 bounced 11.25 points favorable.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4339.25 stop 4334.00. Short 4498.00 stop 4502.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -79 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment. 

Catalysts: PMI Flash MFG/Services @ 9:45. Treasuries yield kisses 16-year high.

Quick Tip: Optimizing Stops

Limiting losses is critical for success in trading. Stop Loss orders are one important part of your risk management plan.

Where you place your Stop Loss will define your position size. The first step in optimizing your stop is to vary it with market volatility. That will obviously vary your position size. 

The second step is to log the MAE (Maximum Adverse Excursion) for every trade setup, whether you took the trade or not. MAE is simply how far against your...