Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Price traded in a relatively narrow range, neither suggested trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4111.50 stop 4106.50. Short 4148.75 stop 4154.00. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) is worthless today as Hong Kong and Europe are stilled closed for the Easter holiday. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Strong U.S. payrolls data on Friday during a closed market. Next big release is CPI on Wednesday.  

Quick Tip: Why Stats Matter

Here’s an important quote from Nassim Taleb, celebrity author of Black Swan and Antifragile, “Whether it’s Covid, vaccines, Bitcoin, or stuff about elections, we’re swayed by the anecdote. So our world is becoming more complex, requires more statistical sophistication while...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The suggested buy at 4101.50 was the bottom of the day and ran to the close of the session for 17.50 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4082.25 stop 4077.50. Short 4148.75 stop 4154.00. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -40 to +7 in a world of mixed sentiment and falling volatility. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Fed’s Bullard speaks @ 10:00. The big news is tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report but the markets are closed for Good Friday. 

Quick Tip: Adjusting Targets

Your trading plan should have a basic set of entry and exit rules. Think of them as useful for “typical” market conditions. You can define typical by data mining your Excel spreadsheet of results and finding the average moves for and against (called Maximum Favorable Excursion or...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The suggested buy at 4136.50 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4101.50 stop 4097.25. Short 4148.75 stop 4154.00. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from +36 to -40 with most major world markets modestly Bearish on falling volatility. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Report @ 8:15. International Trade @ 8:30. ISM Services @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: No Worries

Yesterday was my birthday so I was feeling a bit happier and more optimistic than usual. My primary trading strategy is working well, but the market didn’t reward me with a birthday gift. I started with 3 full losing trades (stopped out with no targets filled). After that I had two breakeven trades. Down day. 

But I wasn’t down. My expectations are based on ...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The suggested short @ 4146.00 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4136.50 stop 4132.50. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) rises from +29 to +36 in a mildly Bullish world of falling volatility. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Report @ 8:15. International Trade @ 8:30. ISM Services @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: On Needs

To succeed in trading (actually, anything in life) you must be motivated. There will always be setbacks, frustrations, losses, failures, and rejections. If you’re not motivated you won’t persist. You’ll quit and carry that psychological “loss” with you. Collect enough of those and you’ll be miserable. 

The answer is to get and stay motivated. But how? Find...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The suggested short @ 4103.75 was only good for 6.25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4100.50 stop 4097.25. Short 4146.00 stop 4151.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from +50 to +29 in a mildly bullish world of decreasing volatility. 

Catalysts: ISM MFG @ 10:00. Oil jumps on OPEC production cut. 

Quick Tip: Visualization

In sports psychology one highly successful technique is positive visualization. In essence, the athlete will vividly imagine and visualize in the mind’s eye the result of what they are about to do. 

Golf is an easy example for clarification. Top golfers, coached by sports psychologists are taught an interesting visualization technique. Famous golf coach and psychology professor Dr. Richard Coop instructs this way: 

Before you...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered. Both remain on the chart for today. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4059.25 stop 4055.00. Short 4103.75 stop 4109.50.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) remains +50 with all major world markets mildly Bullish on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: PCE (Fed’s primary inflation measure) @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. UM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Struggling? 

Markets are either trending or not, volatile, or not. It should be no wonder that traders may have similar cycles of performance, winning streaks, losing streaks, consistency and inconsistency. 

If you’re struggling, here’s a simple but highly effective checklist to work through. 

1. Take a break, clear your mind, and come back to trading with a...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The short @ 4073.50 filled in the Globex this morning and was only good for 4.25 points before stopping out. The breakout on the other side of the level filled and is open with 6.75 favorable so far. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4059.25 stop 4055.00. Short 4103.75 stop 4109.50.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) EASES from +71 to +50 with most major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Final GDP @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: Subject: Whipping fear.

You know that a winning trader is a confident trader, and a losing trader is a fearful trader. Part of your personal development plan should be eliminating your fears. Yes, fears. Plural. You can have more than one. Over the years teaching traders I’ve noticed different types of fear:

...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points: No trades triggered, both remain on the  chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3956.75 stop 3951.75. Short 4073.50 stop 4076.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) remains at +29 in a world of mixed sentiment and lower volatility. 

Catalysts: International Trade @ 8:30. Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence & FOMC Report on SVB failure @ 10:00.  

Quick Tip: Stops

To survive and thrive in trading managing risk is critical. The basic component in your risk management plan is the stop loss (how much are you willing to lose on each trade). 

There are many types of stop loss methods including:

1. Dollar

2. Maximum Adverse Excursion 

3. Volatility

4. Moving Average

5. Time

6. Opposing signal 

7. Percent Retracement

Like...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Shorting 3974.50 only reversed for a 7.75-point move. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3956.75 stop 3951.75. Short 4073.50 stop 4076.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -71 to +29 in a world of mixed sentiment. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. 

Quick Tip: Learn to Reframe

Friday’s short trade @ 3974.50 came within 1 point of filling and then ran for 30+ points. Instead of a third big winner in a row, you settled for the fill later which only offered 7+ points. Are you upset or critical? 

Having a positive attitude about your trading is important. Reframe the results of a missed trade like this one to the positive. 

Here’s how: Ask yourself, overall did the short level work out? Did the trade run plenty? Was it a great short...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The FOMC volatility was under control earlier than usual allowing our short suggestion @ 4073.50 to fill (only one tick adverse move!), pick the top of the day, and run for 58.75 points to the suggested buy level @ 4014.75, which only worked for a 6.25-point bounce. 

Feel better about your big win by donating a slice to my preferred charity, the Alzheimer’s Association. Click here. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3951.50 stop 3946.25. Short 4032.00 stop 4037.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from +50 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. New Home Sales @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Market Speed

Yesterday’s action once the FOMC announced the rate hike became highly volatile, as usual. Any day trader would have been ...