Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 5026.00 stopped out. Shorting 5022.50 on the retracement ran for 9.75 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4972.75 stop 4969.25. Short 5026.50 stop 5031.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +67 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: Nothing important on the economic calendar 

Quick Tip: Smart Money

Who are your “Smart Money” Connections? 

Most traders don’t have even one, let alone many. 

For the longest time, I didn’t either. And now that I have many, I wouldn’t trade any other way. Following “Smart Money” trades is absolutely the best edge I’ve found in 25 years of trading. 

And I want to share this with you!

You’ll see all...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points:Shorting 5040.25 was only good for a 5.25-point scalp. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 5026.00 stop 5021.75. Short 5022.50 stop 5026.75 if price falls below and retraces to entry.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +29 to +67 with all major world markets Bullish on rising volatility.  

Catalysts: PPI, Building Permits, Housing Starts @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 9:10. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Fed’s Daly @ 12:10. 

Quick Tip: 4 Fears

You know that a winning trader is a confident trader, and a losing trader is a fearful trader. Part of your personal development plan should be eliminating your fears. 

Yes, fears. Plural. You can have more than one. Over the years teaching traders I’ve noticed different types of fear. 

1. The most obvious...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4972.75 caught the bottom of the session and ran for 41.50 points at the close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4998.00 stop 4994.25. Short 5040.25 stop 5045.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +36 to +29 with most major world markets Bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Empire State MFG Index, Philly Fed MFG Index, Import Prices @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories, Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Waller @ 13:15. 

Quick Tip: No Fear

Looking at the chart above how price was approaching the buy level you might feel like you were stepping in front of a freight train. Confidence required. 

Of course, since you knew the entry well beforehand a set/forget order would have been a good solution...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 5013.50 was filtered out during the CPI release. The Short didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4972.75 stop 4969.25. Short 5040.50 stop 5045.25.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from -25 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Goolsbee speaks @ 9:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30

Quick Tip: Swiss Army Knife 2

If you didn’t read yesterday’s blog it would be helpful to do it now. Here’s a link. 

We like Bollinger Bands as a technical indicator because they display most of the information we need to understand market state: trend and volatility. 

In reading his book, Bollinger on Bollinger Bands, I found a pearl of trading wisdom that stuck with me, and I use all the time....

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (Entries filtered out during CPI release): 

Buy 5013.50 stop 5009.75. Short 5040.50 stop 5045.25.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -6 to -25 with most major open world markets Bearish.

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: Swiss Army Knife?

While we can’t predict the future exactly we can approximate the future. 

Take price action for example. Price is either: 

1. Trending and volatile.

2. Trending and quiet.

3. Range-bound and volatile.

4. Range-bound and quiet. 

A complete trade plan would include strategies that prefer one of these market conditions so you can choose which has more edge at the time. 

Knowing the present condition is easy, the challenge becomes which condition is next? When will it change? 

...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 5013.50 stop 5009.75. Short 5010.50 stop 5014.25 if price drops below and retraces to entry. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from zero to -6 with the larger Asian markets closed. 

Catalysts: Fed speakers @ 9:20 & 12:00. Federal Budget Balance @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Equity Curves

Are you plotting your strategy’s equity curve? If not, get started. It’s a modest amount of record keeping, and it will give you confidence and warn you to drawdowns and restarts. 

It’s important that the equity curve represents all trades your strategy teed up, not just the ones you took. Knowing the difference between your results (behavior) and what you should have done is critical to improving your results. 

Our...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. The levels stay on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4926.00 stop 4920.75. Short 4987.00 stop 4992.75.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +19 to -13 with most major world markets modestly Bearish. 

Catalysts: Trade Balance @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed-speak @ 11:00, 12:30, and 14:00. 10-year Bond Auction @ 13:01. 

Quick Tip: Watch Bonds

Of all the economic information traders watch for directional clues the bond auctions are the rising stars. Bloomberg reported Citigroup findings that the S&P 500 index has moved 1% in either direction on auction days recently. 

How can you use this data? 

Consider adjusting your entry and exit rules. Expecting a big move and seeing it manifest allows you to...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. The levels stay on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4926.00 stop 4920.75. Short 4987.00 stop 4992.75.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +25 to +19 with mixed sentiment and increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Mester @ 12:00. Plenty of earnings. 

Quick Tip: Sequencing 

If trading is 80% psychological that leaves 20% to the edge your strategy has. We really don’t know if the 80% figure is accurate but you’ll hear a big number like that from many skilled traders and coaches. Regardless the accuracy, how we behave as traders is vitally important. 

Back when racquetball was popular I was a competitive player and found a coach to improve my performance. Here’s the dialog from “lesson one.” 

...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4926.00 stop 4920.75. Short 4987.00 stop 4992.75.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from zero to +25 with most major world markets mildly Bullish.

Catalysts: Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Reinvention

Great performers, traders included, never quit when the inevitable roadblocks and challenges arise. They adjust, learn from their mistakes, and move forward. 

You’re heard the term “reinvent yourself.” Out of favor actors do it. Corporations do it. Sometimes traders must do it. 

Like many traders who enjoyed the Tech Bubble in the late ‘90’s, I was trading a momentum strategy that printed money. It was simple and easy. Even during...