Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Friday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +36 to -36 with most major world markets Bearish. The U.S. deviates with a strong bullish Globex session so far. 

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Fed’s Powell @ 12:00, Daly @ 4:35. Goldman Sachs gapping up on earnings. Trump presidency looks more likely. 

Quick Tip: Excursions

I’ve been asked a few times… “Why do you document the trade results with the maximum that price moved, since you can’t exit there anyway?”

Two data points you should keep for every trade, taken in real time or not, are Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE, how far price went in your favor) and Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE, how far price went against you). 

As your data set grows you’ll have hard evidence to explore different exit strategies. This review process often uncovers edges in your t...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +50 to +36 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PPI @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Earnings starts with big banks. 

Quick Tip: Resilience 

Baseball great Harmon Killebrew said, “The most important athletic ability is the talent to comeback from behind.” True in sports, true in business, true in trading. 

The great come-back athletes were different than their peers. They knew there would be setbacks. They thought in advance how to handle them. They didn’t get emotional. They snapped to attention and executed their plan. 

Traders have losing streaks. Can’t avoid them. 

Are you reactive or proactive? What’s your comeback plan? 

Here’s what works for me: Let’s say I have three losers in a row day trading. I take a vigorous walk not thinking at ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Wednesday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +21 to +50 with all major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & CPI @ 8:30. Fed’s Bostic @ 11:15 & Musalem @ 13:00. 30-year bond auction @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Defining Trend

“The trend is your friend… until the bend in the end.” 

Most traders agree. But not all traders define trends the same way. 

Here’s some examples: 

1. Moving average slope.

2. Higher highs, higher lows (up), lower highs, lower lows (down). 

3. Drawing trendlines based on connecting highs (down) and lows (up). 

4. Higher time interval slope. 

5. Basing price pattern breakouts. 

Take your pick. The question is “Does it really matter which?” 

If you’re consistent with your definition and usage it shouldn’t matter at all. If you’re inconsistent and bouncing from one definition to anoth...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) is stable at +21 in a mildly Bullish, low volatility world. 

Catalysts: Powell @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 10-y Bond Auction @ 13:00. Fed’s Bowman & Goolsbee @ 14:30. 

Quick Tip: Persistence

Every successful person in trading and in life has gone through barriers and setbacks to achieve their success. Every failure was viewed as a learning experience. 

In trading everyone deals with losing streaks, drawdowns, unfilled winning trades, slippage, internet outages, criticism from family and friends, and more. 

Consider: 

“I have not failed. I have just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” Thomas Edison

“I have failed again and again throughout my life. That’s why I’ve been successful.” Michael Jordan

"Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm." ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) improves from -7 to +21 with Asia Bullish and the west mixed.

Catalysts: Powell’s Text ahead of Testimony @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 9:15, Powell & Yellen @ 10:00, Bowman @ 13:30. 

Quick Tip: Catalysts

Whether you’re a day, swing, or position trader one thing that must happen for your trade to really move is a catalyst. This could be news, earnings, economics, and many other events. 

A strong catalyst helps in several ways. Price moves quicker and usually farther than normal. Volume increases for better liquidity. 

Ideally, you’ll be proactive in finding potential catalysts that have not hit the mainstream yet. On our Swing Trading Stock/Options team, we get an early peak by monitoring Insider Buying and Unusual Options Activity. Both occasionally precede a publicly announced catalyst. Timin...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -14 to +57 with all most major world markets very Bullish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: ADP NFP Change @ 8:15. Jobless Claims & Trade Balance @ 8:30. Services PMI (Final) @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Minutes @ 14:00. Futures market closes @ 1:15 ET for the holiday.

Quick Tip: Trend or Reversal?

You might be thinking that trading trends is safer than picking turning points. Many strategies focus on trading in the direction of a larger time frame trend. This makes sense and it generally works well. 

But it’s not necessarily “safer.”  Your initial priority is making sure your trade plan rule set has “edge,” meaning over time it’s profitable. After you have that the idea of “safe” becomes irrelevant. Trend following strategies have fe...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +50 to -14 most of the world leaning Bearish on modest volatility.  

Catalysts: Fed’s Powell @ 9:30. JOLTS @ 10:00.  

Quick Tip: Need to Know

Curiosity leads to learning and discovery. We want to know the “what, why, how, when & where.” 

All good. Except in day trading. 

Any time you see the price plunge or skyrocket on high volume your first impulse is to find out why, what happened?

But does it matter? As a day trader your setup likely lasts less than an hour. Do you need to understand the reason if you’re only trading price action? Do you even have the time to find out? 

If you’re a day or short-term trader the better time to be curious is during your review process. You have the time to do proper research then. In fact, it’s essential to be very curious during revi...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Friday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) improves from +29 to +50 with all major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: S&P MFG PMI Final @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI @10:00. 

Quick Tip: Blind Spot

There are so many cognitive biases that affect our trading results, and everyone has some. Possibly the worst bias is called Personal Blind Spot.

It occurs when you fail to recognize your weaknesses and shortcomings, leading to suboptimal trading decisions and poor performance.

One of the primary ways to resolve this bias is through self-reflection and self-awareness. You must take the time to assess your strengths and weaknesses and be brutally honest about their limitations.

Easier said than done, so get feedback from others, your colleagues, or mentors, to gain an objective perspective on your trading behavior. 

For example, while I tell our team not to multi-task and stay focused, I wo...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -50 to +29 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index/Personal Income/Personal Spending @ 8:30. Fed’s Daly @ 8:40. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. UofM Consumer Sentiment (revised) @ 10:00. Fed’s Monetary Policy Report @ 11:00. Fed’s Bowman @ 12:00, Daly @ 12:40.  

Quick Tip: Calm Down

Even if you don’t golf you’ve probably heard that it’s a mental game. Most athletics are. Trading is too. Dr. Richard Coop, author of the book “Mind Over Golf” advises players to have their own personal pre-shot routine.

Let’s use his advice but change the details to improve our trading. 

1. If you’re approaching a trade entry with a negative feeling, pause and use some physical ritual to regain calm control and reset your concentration. The ritual may be standing up and stretching or closing your eyes and counting backward fr...