Trade Aptitude

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The short at 4813.00 was high of the session and offered a 33.50-point run. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4739.00 stop 4733.25. Short 4797.50 stop 4800.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from -43 to -86 with all major world markets very Bearish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: Retail Sales & Import Prices @ 8:30. Fed’s Bowman & Barr @ 9:00. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories & Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Beige Book @ 14:00. Fed’s Williams @ 15:00. World Economic Forum in Davos (all week)

Quick Tip: Second Chances

The high-volume price levels presented here remain on the chart until they are violated. Many times the level will trigger a trade but not stop out by the end of the day, like yesterday’s chart. 

You’ll notice that this...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The buy at 4805.50 stopped out. The breakout short ran for 14.75 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4775.25 stop 4771.00. Short 4830.50 stop 4835.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +36 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment and modest volatility. 

Catalysts: PPI @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: Don’t Fight It

When trading reversal entries in this or any strategy you should carefully consider the dominant trend. Yesterday’s reversal failed immediately, and the breakout suggested saved the day for the strategy (see chart).

You can look at a higher time frame chart for confirmation of the dominant trend. You can also assess the speed of movement approaching the reversal entry. 

Start marking up you charts and saving copies for future reference. It won’t take long...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4799.25 stopped out. Buying the breakout failed as well. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4739.00 stop 4733.25. Short 4830.50 stop 4835.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at -7 with most major world markets quiet.

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 10-year bond auction @ 13:01. Fed’s Williams @ 15:15. 

Quick Tip: The Levels of Demand

All markets are influenced by the forces of supply and demand. More demand than supply will push a stock price higher. 

But is all demand equal? 

The least influential source of demand is the investing public. Their trade size and knowledge of the future performance of the company are minimal. 

The next tier of influence is the institutions. Their trade size and knowledge of the future performance of...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4780.00 stopped out. Buying the breakout delivered 17.25 points at the close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4739.00 stop 4733.25. Short 4799.25 stop 4802.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) improves from -29 to -7 with most major world markets quiet.

Catalysts: Fed’s Barr speaks @ 12:00 PM. 

Quick Tip: Breakouts

The turning points offered in this newsletter start as reversals but are breakout candidates after stopping out. Yesterday is a perfect example of how the breakout rule frequently allows you to join the trend and repair the losing trade. 

Tired of trading alone? Our team day-trades multiple strategies with edge in a live online environment. Join us, learn the strategies, and trade live with us daily for 30 days. Money back if you’re not...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4752.00 stopped out. Buying 4701.75 missed filling by one tick, a 50-point runner ☹.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4701.75 stop 4696.00. Short 4780.00 stop 4785.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) improves from -43 to -29 with Asia more Bearish than the west. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Bostic speaks @ 12:00 PM. 

Quick Tip: Discretion

If you look back to Thursday’s blog (click here for all 500+ issues) you’ll notice the suggested Buy was 4704.00, same as today. Looking at Friday’s blog you’ll see the suggested Buy was 4701.75. 

Why did I change the entry by such a small amount? 

The high-volume that creates these levels offer entry ideas. Sometimes other information is available suggesting you adjust your entry. They could be rules from another...

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Trade Aptitude

technical analysis Jan 05, 2024

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade level triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4701.75 stop 4696.00. Short 4752.00 stop 4756.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +14 to -43 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Employment Situation @ 8:30. ISM Services PMI & Factory Orders @ 10:00. Fed’s Barkin speaks @ 13:30. 

Quick Tip: Volume Leads Price

For as complex and chaotic as the markets are, technical traders only have 3 variables to analyze. Price, volume, and time. Most technical traders agree that volume LEADS price. 

Price moving up with volume increasing is very bullish. It’s hard evidence that plenty of buying interest is happening. Conversely, price moving up with decreasing volume is not as bullish. 

Price moving down with volume increasing is very...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade level triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4704.00 stop 4699.25. Short 4780.00 stop 4785.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -58 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment and lower volatility. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Change @ 8:15. Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Final Services PMI @ 9:45. Crude Oil Inventories @11:00.  

Quick Tip: Open to Change

Last year change I wrote a blog on being “open to change.” The idea came from an article I read about five top Wall Street traders’ thoughts on how to deal with disruption in the markets. There were plenty of differences between them including chosen asset class, style, strategy, all the typical things. 

There was one huge commonality, though. They all stressed keeping an open mind....

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Trade Aptitude

psychology trade planning Jan 03, 2024

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The levels yesterday were not updated from the day before (error) and were non-tradable.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4704.00 stop 4699.25. Short 4814.25 stop 4820.00. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) stays at -58 with the major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility.   

Catalysts: Fed’s Barkin @ 8:30. ISM MFG PMI & JOLTS @ 10:00. FOMC Meeting Minutes @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: No FOMO

Seasoned traders spend time on the review process. They document every trade their strategies set up, taken or not. They compare their results (behavior) to their plan. This is an excellent way to improve incrementally and get more disciplined and confident. 

There is a “downside” you’ll need to handle, though. Since you can’t take every trade every day and...

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Trade Aptitude

psychology trade planning Jan 02, 2024

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4821.50 delivered 14.00 points to the buy level at 4807.50, which didn’t fare as well only offering a 4.25-point bounce. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4807.50 stop 4802.25. Short 4821.50 stop 4827.25 if price closes below and retraces to fill. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +21 to -58 with the major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility.   

Catalysts: PMI Final @ 9:45. 

Quick Tip: Expectations and Reality

People are impressionable. Sometimes that can be a problem. We can have great expectations that don’t match up with reality. A perfectly fine trading result can seem like a failure after experiencing a big win. 

Here’s an example. Let’s say the first time you traded the levels shared in this blog your first...

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Trade Aptitude

psychology trade planning Dec 29, 2023

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No trades triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4807.50 stop 4802.25. Short 4821.50 stop 4827.25 if price closes below and retraces to fill. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from zero to +21 in a mildly Bullish world with low volatility. 

Catalysts: Chicago PMI @ 9:45. 

Quick Tip: Optimism & Pessimism. 

Can they co-exist? Should they? Yes, but on different levels. 

Starting the New Year, it’s common to set goals. You want to be optimistic about your trading, career, family, and the state of the world itself. It would be wasteful and unnatural to be pessimistic. 

Those positive goals you set are in your “big picture.” Where you want to be a little pessimistic is in the details. 

How are you going to achieve your goals? You...

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