Trade Aptitude

technical analysis Jan 05, 2024

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade level triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4701.75 stop 4696.00. Short 4752.00 stop 4756.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +14 to -43 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Employment Situation @ 8:30. ISM Services PMI & Factory Orders @ 10:00. Fed’s Barkin speaks @ 13:30. 

Quick Tip: Volume Leads Price

For as complex and chaotic as the markets are, technical traders only have 3 variables to analyze. Price, volume, and time. Most technical traders agree that volume LEADS price. 

Price moving up with volume increasing is very bullish. It’s hard evidence that plenty of buying interest is happening. Conversely, price moving up with decreasing volume is not as bullish. 

Price moving down with volume increasing is very...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade level triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4704.00 stop 4699.25. Short 4780.00 stop 4785.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -58 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment and lower volatility. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Change @ 8:15. Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Final Services PMI @ 9:45. Crude Oil Inventories @11:00.  

Quick Tip: Open to Change

Last year change I wrote a blog on being “open to change.” The idea came from an article I read about five top Wall Street traders’ thoughts on how to deal with disruption in the markets. There were plenty of differences between them including chosen asset class, style, strategy, all the typical things. 

There was one huge commonality, though. They all stressed keeping an open mind....

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Trade Aptitude

psychology trade planning Jan 03, 2024

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The levels yesterday were not updated from the day before (error) and were non-tradable.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4704.00 stop 4699.25. Short 4814.25 stop 4820.00. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) stays at -58 with the major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility.   

Catalysts: Fed’s Barkin @ 8:30. ISM MFG PMI & JOLTS @ 10:00. FOMC Meeting Minutes @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: No FOMO

Seasoned traders spend time on the review process. They document every trade their strategies set up, taken or not. They compare their results (behavior) to their plan. This is an excellent way to improve incrementally and get more disciplined and confident. 

There is a “downside” you’ll need to handle, though. Since you can’t take every trade every day and...

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Trade Aptitude

psychology trade planning Jan 02, 2024

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4821.50 delivered 14.00 points to the buy level at 4807.50, which didn’t fare as well only offering a 4.25-point bounce. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4807.50 stop 4802.25. Short 4821.50 stop 4827.25 if price closes below and retraces to fill. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +21 to -58 with the major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility.   

Catalysts: PMI Final @ 9:45. 

Quick Tip: Expectations and Reality

People are impressionable. Sometimes that can be a problem. We can have great expectations that don’t match up with reality. A perfectly fine trading result can seem like a failure after experiencing a big win. 

Here’s an example. Let’s say the first time you traded the levels shared in this blog your first...

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Trade Aptitude

psychology trade planning Dec 29, 2023

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No trades triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4807.50 stop 4802.25. Short 4821.50 stop 4827.25 if price closes below and retraces to fill. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from zero to +21 in a mildly Bullish world with low volatility. 

Catalysts: Chicago PMI @ 9:45. 

Quick Tip: Optimism & Pessimism. 

Can they co-exist? Should they? Yes, but on different levels. 

Starting the New Year, it’s common to set goals. You want to be optimistic about your trading, career, family, and the state of the world itself. It would be wasteful and unnatural to be pessimistic. 

Those positive goals you set are in your “big picture.” Where you want to be a little pessimistic is in the details. 

How are you going to achieve your goals? You...

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Trade Aptitude

trade planning Dec 28, 2023

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No trades triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4807.50 stop 4802.25. Short 4803.00 stop 4802.25 if price closes below and retraces to fill. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +57 to zero with China/HK very Bullish and the west mildly Bearish. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. 

Quick Tip: Your Equity Curve 

If you’re a regular reader you know that one of the most important components of your trade plan is the documentation and review process. 

Every day you’re logging trades results, whether you took the trade or not. You’re scanning your thought journal for confirmation that you’re improving your discipline and holding emotions in check. 

The year is almost over. Now it’s...

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Trade Aptitude

psychology Dec 21, 2023

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4798.00 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4704.00 stop 4699.25. Short 4822.25 stop 4826.50 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +7 to -14 with the major markets mixed. S&P futures Bullish.

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: Never Stop…

…learning! 

If the market is a mirror that reflects your character flaws, then trading is the journey of self-improvement.

You’ve no doubt read books, enrolled in courses, hired a mentor, listened to podcasts, read blogs, and watched countless videos on HOW to trade the markets. You’ve educated yourself with all the information you needed to complete a personalized trade plan. 

Is it working for you? Are your trading results right on...

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Trade Aptitude

trade planning Dec 20, 2023

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4798.00 stop 4794.50. No shorts suggested. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +29 to +7 with the major markets mixed. 

Catalysts: Consumer Confidence & Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 12:00. 

Quick Tip: Trade Plan Updates

In your trade plan you’ve established a set of rules that when followed, show a positive outcome (if not, get it done). 

Most trade plans start simple. When to enter and exit. Which asset to trade. Which tools to use. How much to risk. 

That’s a good start but the real meaty rules come from live trading experience. We can’t possibly consider all outcomes and influences in the beginning. We need to trade live,...

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Trade Aptitude

psychology trade planning Dec 19, 2023

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4800.50 caught the high of the session and ran for 8.50 points to the close. If you were swing trading it’s still open ranging below the level. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4769.00 stop 4765.25. Short 4783.50 stop 4787.25 if price drops below and retraces back. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from -21 back to +29 in the major markets mixed. 

Catalysts: Building Permits & Housing Starts @ 8:30. Fed’s Barkin @ 9:30, Bostic @ 12:30. 

Quick Tip: Trade Less 

Doctors heal. Lawyers argue. Artists create. In those and other professions if you’re not doing something you’re not productive.  

The same doesn’t apply to Traders, however. You don’t have to trade all the time to be a productive, successful Trader....

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4769.00 stop 4765.25. Short 4800.50 stop 4805.50 (Buy the breakout if this short fails). 

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from +29 to -21 with most major world markets mildly Bearish. S&P futures are not. 

Catalysts: NAHB Housing Market Index @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Consistency

Here’s an important quote from Dr. Brett Steenbarger, author of many books on trader psychology and an accomplished S&P futures day trader:

“You are most likely to become consistent IN your trading if you are consistent in working ON your trading.” 

How? Preparation and review. Sports teams do this. Prepare for the opponent, play the game, watch the video reviews. 

Are you preparing...

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