Trade Aptitude

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested short @ 4016.00 stopped out.

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3958.75 stop 3953.25. Short 4050.25 stop 4053.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) EASES from +21 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically price has closed higher than the open 56% of the time with 2 times the gain as the losers. 

Catalysts: Home Price Index @ 9:00. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Consumer Confidence @ 10:00.   

Quick Tip: Shades of Gray  

Here’s a quote I love from superstar attorney Gerry Spence: “I would rather have a mind that is opened by wonder than one closed by belief.” 

At first this quote seems to simply say “Have an open mind.” But it goes deeper than that. It’s more than merely having a positive attitude or not being fixed...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 3951.50 was the bottom of the session and ran for 32.50 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3958.75 stop 3953.25. Short 4016 stop 4021.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) RISES from -29 to +21 with Asia down and the western world up. Historically the close is higher than the open 61% of the time. 

Catalysts: Durable Goods @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00.  

Quick Tip: Are You Realistic?

Self-discipline in trading is critical. You’re probably aware of several key elements to being self-disciplined: 

1. Have a rule-based Trading Plan.

2. Be consistent following your plan.  

3. Manage your emotions.

4. Practice proper risk management. 

There is a 5th element that many traders fail to...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 3977.50 was the bottom of the session and ran for 51 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3951.50 stop 3946.50. Short 4016 stop 4021.75. Both trades are cancelled during the PCE econ release. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) SLIPS from -7 to -29 in a mostly Bearish world with rising volatility. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index @ 8:30. New Home Sales & UM Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Revised @ 10:00. Fed’s Jefferson @ 10:15.   

Quick Tip: Flexibility

Yesterday’s S&P action was a test in how flexible you are. The turning points suggested in this blog come from our proprietary version of volume profile. 

After a brief rally a perfect “10:00 AM Reversal” dumped the index 60 points (1.49%) right into the...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 3990.00 ran for 32.75 points and had a “natural” exit just before the FOMC Minutes were released. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3977.50 stop 3974.00. Short 4050.25 stop 4053.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -43 to -7 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: GDP & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. NVDA’s bullish forecast tips risk on.  

Quick Tip: "Close Enough"

Looking at yesterday’s price action prior to the entry you’ll notice that price moved sharply down and “based” for a while in a tight trading range. This occurred just above our high-volume price level. 

Sideways movement after a drop is called Accumulation in Market...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 4029.75 offered 10.50 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3990.00 stop 3985.75. Short 4050.25 stop 4053.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) EASES up from -57 to -43 with all major world markets Bearish except the S&P Globex seeing an early morning rally to positive. 

Catalysts: FOMC Minutes @ 14:00. G20 Meetings begin (ending Saturday). 

Quick Tip: Sizing

New traders are usually focused on finding great entry signals. Clearly, we don’t want to enter randomly but the more important decision you have is WHEN and HOW to exit. That’s where the money is made or lost.   

The worst situation to be in trading futures or options is having one contract. Fortunately, with so many micro contracts in futures to select...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Neither suggest trade triggered in a relatively narrow range day session. 

Quick Tip: Mastering Trading

George Leonard noted in his book Mastery that “Our culture has become hooked on the quick fix, the life hack, efficiency. Everyone is on the hunt for that simple action algorithm that nets maximum profit with the least amount of effort.”

Sounds like “Lottery Mentality.” And unfortunately, those are the kinds of teasers you read in your emails every day. Don’t fall for it. 

To master anything, you’ll find coaches and authors all agreeing on the same basics: 

1. Intense focus.

2. Practice.

3. Incrementally improving (day by day).

4. Persistence. 

5. Acknowledging Mastery is a journey, not a destination. 

Nothing quick and easy about that. 

Your trading plan should include personal development...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Thrusday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 4133.50 was cancelled due to the economic news release volatility nearing 08:30 ET. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4029.75 stop 4024.25. Short 4146.00 stop 4151.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from +21 to -64 with all major world markets bearish on rising volatility. Historically it’s a coin toss which way price closes.  

Catalysts: Import Prices @ 8:30. Fed’s Bowman @ 8:45. 

Quick Tip: Pre-Paying

Before online retailing we went to a brick-and-mortar store. We saw, touched, used and/or fitted the merchandise. Then we decided and paid. Very safe, the sequence of paying afterward. 

I recall the first time I wanted to buy shoes online. I couldn’t do it. I wanted to try them on, feel the fit, look in the mirror, and ...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Shorting 4143.25 offered 16.75 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4133.50 stop 4127.75. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25 (Both trades are cancelled for the 8:30 ET economic news). 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) LIFTS from -14 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically it’s a coin toss which way price closes.  

Catalysts: PPI, Philly Fed MFG, Jobless Claims & Housing Starts @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: How to Wait

Position and swing traders are naturally patient people. They must be. Their trades last days, weeks, months, maybe years. In fact, they probably chose the longer duration styles because they fit their personalities well. 

Day traders likely chose the short duration trades because they wanted to see faster results (self-included)....

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: No trades were offered pre-CPI, and nothing triggered afterward.  

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4089.75 stop 4084.25. Short 4143.25 stop 4147.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) FALLS from +29 to -14 in a world of mixed sentiment. Historically price closed higher from the open 63% of the time.

Catalysts: Retail Sales & Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: Trade Less 

Doctors heal. Lawyers argue. Artists create. In those and other professions if you’re not doing something you’re not productive.  

The same doesn’t apply to Traders, however. You don’t have to trade all the time to be a productive, successful Trader. You don’t have to...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested short @ 4157.00 triggered during the Globex this morning @ 5:45 ET. This trade is filtered out due to the CPI announcement @ 8:30 (the volatility is predictable, but the direction is definitely not).

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Holding off on selecting the turning points until the CPI is released and the volatility is assessed. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) RISES from +21 to +29 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically price closed down from the open 56% of the time with drops averaging 50% more than rises.   

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. FOMC members speaking @ 11:00, 11:30 & 14:05. 

Quick Tip: Lethal Bias 

Have you ever looked at your trade result and said to yourself “If had a bigger stop it would have been a winner” or “If I...

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