Trade Aptitude

Quick Tip: Weather Report 

Markets are like the weather. Calm winds and sunny days turn into thunderstorms or worse. Gentle trending days in the market get upset by catalysts that send volatility soaring and price action looking like an ECG. 

Some catalysts are scheduled, like the employment report on Friday that plunged the indexes. Others pop up without warning like a midday comment from a Fed Governor at a benign conference. Back in the day it was a Trump tweet. 

As day traders we certainly need to be aware of all the scheduled (potential) catalysts. We also need to accept that sometimes price will do very unexpected things and we won’t know why. Finding out why is a waste of precious time. Having a plan of action when price action is unacceptable for your strategy is best. 

In our trade room we capture plenty of data about every trade setup across multiple strategies. Catalysts included. This data is analyzed to update...

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Trade Aptitude

Quick Tip: Novel Exits Part 2

Yesterday I shared the idea that a good exit may be an opposing signal from a different strategy that you use and know has edge. Reprinted here in italics. 

Let’s say you’re profitably long using a trend strategy and your reversal strategy is signaling short. You have choices, which is better than none.

1. Ignore the reversal signal. 

2. Exit your entire position.

3. Scale out of your position.

Scaling out is a good choice. You’re banking profit and staying in the primary trend. The key is selecting the strategies you’re using. They all need "edge." 

One of our trading team members offered further choices that expand this, and I wanted to share them with you while the idea is fresh in your mind. 

4. Exit (or scale out) at the reversal signal, anticipating re-entering wholly or partially on a pullback. After all, you expect a reaction to the reversal...

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Trade Aptitude

Quick Tip: Novel Exits

All the money is made or lost in the exit. Significant research, documentation and review is essential to finding what works best for your style. 

One exit we find productive in our trading room is a counter signal from a different strategy.

Let’s say you’re profitably long using a trend strategy and your reversal strategy is signaling short. You have choices, which is better than none.

1. Ignore the reversal signal. 

2. Exit your entire position.

3. Scale out of your position.

Scaling out is a good choice. You’re banking profit and staying in the primary trend. The key is selecting the strategies you’re using. They all need "edge." 

Join us today, December 1st @ 12:30 PM for a live real money trading demo where we’ll show you how this flexible exit alternative works. Click here to register. 

Wednesday’s Best S&P...

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Trade Aptitude

Quick Tip: Be Different

“If you set out to be successful at something and you don’t know how to do it, look around at what everybody else is doing, and don’t do that…” Earl Nightingale

This is especially true with trading. If everyone traded the same way there would be no counter parties. We need plenty of different styles and opposing viewpoints for the markets to exist. 

If you’re still struggling it’s a good idea to stop trading live money and start looking at alternative trading styles. Be open minded. I’ve met too many traders over the past 22 years who are fixed on one way to trade because that’s what they bought into. 

Think of your prior investment in trading education as a trade. Some winners, some losers. 

I’ve personally invested a small fortune in trading education. And here’s a surprise, I still do. I invest in myself...

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Trade Aptitude

Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested buy at 3987.00 ran for 17 points with 2-points of adverse move. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 4033.50 stop 4036.75. Buy 3922.50 stop 3917.75. 

Globex View: Inside, tight range session. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -64 to +50 with most major world markets bullish.  Historically price closes LOWER than the open 54% of the time.   

Catalysts: Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence @ 10:00. Chinese markets SOAR on looser Covid restrictions. Dollar lags. Waiting on GDP, Powell tomorrow.

Quick Tip: Solo vs. Multi-Strat

If you read this blog daily you know that our team trades live daily in a multi-strat environment. Focusing on multiple strategies is not for everyone. In fact, few of our team trade all the strategies. 

So why have...

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Trade Aptitude

Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: Price melted up and found no sellers at our suggested short level. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 4069.50 stop 4075.25. Buy 3997.00 stop 3994.00 

Globex View: Narrow, breaking out from yesterday’s high, waiting on a big day of econ news.    

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) EASES UP from zero to +29 in a world of subtle bullishness and low volatility.  Historically price closes higher than the open 55% of the time.  

Catalysts: Durable Goods & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. PMI Flash @ 9:45. New Home Sales & Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. FOMC Minutes @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Turkey Trade 

Thanksgiving is not known for gift giving but any time is a good time to give a gift (and receive one so pass this on). 

The market...

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Trade Aptitude

Uncategorized Nov 22, 2022

Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: Price traded in a narrow range and didn’t trigger either trade suggestion. Both are valid trades today.  

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 3993.00 stop 3998.75. Buy 3922.50 stop 3917.75. 

Globex View: Narrow and inside yesterday’s range.   

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -36 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility.  Historically direction is a coin toss.  

Catalysts: Nothing significant on the economic calendar. Waiting on a raft of econ tomorrow.   

Quick Tip: Lost your edge? 

Your trade strategies must have “edge,” otherwise you’re gambling and likely losing. The challenge is that edge is not always permanent. You need to be vigilant in your review process and notice when the edge may be...

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Trade Aptitude

Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested buy level ran for 35.75 points MFE and 26.50 at the close. Maybe. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 3993.00 stop 3998.75. Buy 3922.50 stop 3917.75. 

Globex View: Trending down from the open still inside Friday’s range.  A breakout below 3942.50 gives you 20.00 points to the suggested buy. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) DROPS from +21 to -36 in a bearish leaning world.  Historically price closes HIGHER than the open 56% of the time. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. China locks down again leading the Global selling.   

Quick Tip: Finesse your Stop

The trade ideas presented here are based on volume-at-price setups that have been perfected over thousands of trades. Suggested stop placement is always offered with the caveat...

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Trade Aptitude

Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested buy level ran for 46.25 points MFE and 39.50 at the close. How much did you get? 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 4018.50 stop 4024.25. Buy 3947.00 stop 3943.25.

Globex View: Range-bound until Euro Open and firmly UP now trading above yesterday’s day session high but within the prior Globex.  A breakout above 3990 gives you 18.50 points to the suggested short. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -50 to +21 with Asia lagging and the western world bullish.  Historically price closes HIGHER than the open 55% of the time. 

Catalysts: Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. Bullard is hawkish. Mortgage rates drop.  

Quick Tip: More on Exits

This blog could be on exits almost every day. They are the most important trading decision you’ll make...

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Trade Aptitude

Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: Neither level triggered on a relatively narrow range-bound day.

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 4018.50 stop 4024.25. Buy 3916.25 stop 3911.75

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) DROPS from -21 to -50 with most major world markets bearish.  Historically price closes LOWER than the open 56% of the time. 

Globex View: Range-bound until the Euro Open and firmly down now, trading well below yesterday's low. 

Catalysts: Housing Starts, Jobless Claims & Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Scattered Fed-Speak. More crypto pain. Risk off coming into the open. 

Quick Tip: Feed Your Brain

One huge reason we’re living longer and healthier than prior generations is diet and exercise. We know way better what to feed our bodies and those that practice some discipline with diet and exercise reap the...

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