Trade Aptitude

psychology trade planning Jul 31, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -7 to +86 with all major world markets strongly Bullish. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Change @ 8:15. Employment Cost Index @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement @ 14:00, Press Conference @ 14:30. META reports after the close. BOJ raises rates.

Quick Tip: Disqualifying 

Traditional work (your job) makes becoming a winning trader difficult. Not because of the time devotion, but because it instills a belief that is NOT helpful in trading. 

What is it? Always doing something. Can you imagine if you were caught doing nothing and told the boss “Now is not a good time to be working on this.” Or “Wednesdays are difficult days to get anything done, so I’m going to loaf.” 

In trading NOT entering a trade is not only OK it’s ...

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Trade Aptitude

 

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Trade Aptitude

trade planning Jul 29, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +36 with most world markets Bullish.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar today. Big tech earnings & FOMC later in the week promise action.  

Quick Tip: Market Diversification

Market conditions constantly change. Hopefully you’ve perfected a few different strategies that align with the different Market States (trend and volatility).

One of the most effective ways to improve your performance is to trade a diverse range of markets. Include as many as are affordable in your portfolio given your account size. You certainly won’t trade every signal so make your first pre-trade decision in your plan “Market Selection.” 

Here’s an example: Our day trading room currently focuses on the S&P, oil & gold futures markets. We have strategies for each of the market states. At any given time, the...

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Trade Aptitude

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but had a superb week of gains and may be back in business on Monday. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -71 to +36 with all most world markets mildly Bullish on fading volatility. 

Catalysts: PCE/Personal Income @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment (revised). 

Quick Tip: How Not to Confirm

Many traders use a two-step process to enter their trades. The first is called a “setup.” Certain conditions appear ripe for an entry. The second step is called “confirmation.” The final evidence says pull the trigger. 

Here’s an example: Our trend strategy will signal that a trend is starting based on a chart pattern and current volatility. But that is not when the entry occurs. We wait for confirmation by looking for additional signals, then buy on a retracement to reduce...

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Trade Aptitude

 

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Trade Aptitude

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from -14 to -64 with all major world markets Bearish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: MFG & Services Flash PMI @ 9:45. New Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Inventories @ 10:30. Bearish hangover from GOOG/TSLA earnings. 

Quick Tip: Expensive Options

Traders going long want (need) to buy low and sell high. What may be more important, if available, is a clue that something non-publicly known is about to happen forcing the stock to rise quickly. This might be an earnings release, new product, acquisition, etc. The idea is that smart money knows something the public doesn’t and trades that information. 

Following smart money buys in the options market has edge. You want this. The...

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Trade Aptitude

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from +36 to -14 with many major world markets motionless. 

Catalysts: Existing Home Sales & Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. TSLA & AMZN earnings after the close. 

Quick Tip: Strategy Death

This Volume Profile strategy has been in a drawdown for some time. It’s getting painful to document the setups/results every day, but it must be done. Otherwise, how would we know if the strategy is worth trading again? 

What I’ve noticed in the daily review is that the levels are not the main problem. It appears the entry and exit rules are. Fortunately, we have thousands of trades documented, each with 47 data points, and this offers us a significant research opportunity to solve the problem. Stay...

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Trade Aptitude

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Friday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from -36 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic front. Election views differ but the market is melting up nicely. Earnings season continues. 

Quick Tip: Open Your Mind

Imagine you’re attending a trading conference. You’re one of hundreds of traders watching the presentations, talking to vendors at their booths, looking for some new edge to add to your plan. 

If you asked everyone you met, “What tools do you use to trade?” Here’s what you’d hear: Price action, chart patterns, fundamentals, supply/demand, moving averages, volume, RSI, MACD, CCI, ATR, Stochastics, Bollinger bands, etc. 

The fact is, other than fundamentals, they...

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Trade Aptitude

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from +29 to -36 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Williams @ 10:40, Bostic @ 13:00. Banks, airlines & exchanges challenged by Crowdstrike/Microsoft bug, apparently fixed. 

Quick Tip: Critical Add-On

If you're trading stocks or options you need to ensure your portfolio is adequately diversified. Hot sectors in the market come and go, sometimes simultaneously. 

This is a critical component of your plan regardless of your entry and exit rules. 

The problem with trying to diversify your picks without a proven method is difficult. You can easily get stuck trading one hot segment of the market (think AI) and ignore others that are primed to explode. 

Our swing trading...

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Trade Aptitude

 

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