The Daily Market Forecast

Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The short breakout below 3925.50 stopped out. 

Quick Tip: Losing streaks… 

It’s Friday and likely this will be a losing week for me… and I’m unconcerned. 

Losing should not affect you financially or psychologically. You’ve determined how much you can lose before you react emotionally, and you’re disciplined to limit your loss to that number on every trade. If not, you’re destined to fail. 

That risk number can change. You can increase it when you’re doing well and decrease it when not. A common formula for that change in risk is the Fixed Percentage rule. Simply this: risk the same percentage of your trading account on each trade, usually no more than 2%. This way you’ll risk more and gain more as the account grows and vice versa. 

But what if you do get anxious or upset in a losing streak?...

Continue Reading...

The Daily Market Forecast

Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested buy level was cancelled due to the CPI release.

Quick Tip: No Gambling

After trading for 23 years and teaching trading for 14 years you know the top 3 questions you’ll hear when you say you’re a trader: 

Q. Where’s the market going? 

A. I don’t know. 

Q. Any good stock tips? 

A. No. 

Q. Isn’t trading gambling? 

A. No. 

At this point they’re curious and confused. If I don’t know where the market is headed, and I don’t have a good stock tip, and what looks like a crapshoot isn’t, then what is it that a trader does do? 

Traders find opportunities in the market where the probability of success is in their favor. It’s not gambling. It’s more like being the casino, which is a highly profitable business. 

But the main difference between being a trader...

Continue Reading...

The Daily Market Forecast

Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested short @ 4133.50 caught the top of the session and ran for 12.50 points to the next volume level (unpublished) which offered 12 points. 

Quick Tip: Real Courage

Hopefully you’re following a rule-based trade plan (if not, get one or stop trading).

If so, you’ve probably experienced that trade setup that just didn’t look or feel right. The rules say, “go short” but price is rising fast. All you can think about is that stop getting filled instantly and you’re underwater again. 

On the chart above, notice the price action just before the level was touched. Just before entry. The steep and fast move up And you’re supposed to short at this price?

Would it take “courage” to enter that trade? Being courageous sounds too risky to me. I get mental images of danger ahead and I’m supposed to...

Continue Reading...

The Daily Market Forecast

Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested short @ 4104.50 filled a bit late… like right after the Globex session opened last night, running for 24.25 points. 

Quick Tip: Sweet Dreams 

The futures market opens at 6:00 PM ET. It’s called the Globex session, and it is usually easier money than the day session.

Why? The participants are different. Day session volume brings out all the large lot and algo traders and that creates a noisy effect on price action. 

If you’re thinking “I don’t have the time to analyze the market and KNOW where to place those Globex trades” then you’re in luck. We provide our members a complete trading plan for the Globex session every market day around 5:15 PM ET, 45 minutes before the open. The day session plan arrives at 8:00 AM ET. Click the link below for details. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) inches...

Continue Reading...

The Daily Market Forecast

Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: Neither trade triggered.

Quick Tip: No Scarcity

You probably noticed that the Turning Points shared here frequently don’t trigger. Sometimes a few days can go by without a trade. 

You may be thinking, “This is not enough action for me.” 

On the contrary, this strategy provides an abundance of opportunities every day. The chart above shows all the trades that teed up yesterday BEFORE lunch. And this is from only ONE of five strategies. We scan several dozen setups for the best every day. 

Now you may be thinking “That is too much action for me.” 

It’s all about mindset. If you approach abundance with greed and obligation to trade as much as possible you’ll suffer. You’ll over-trade and under-analyze. Your results will be marginal at best. 

If you approach abundance with a selective mindset ...

Continue Reading...

The Daily Market Forecast

Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: Neither trade triggered. 

Quick Tip: Style Matters

I hosted a group coaching session last night on the topic of trading style. This decision is critically important to your success. You must find a style of trading that resonates with your personality. 

Jack Schwager, author of the “Wizards” series of books (interviews with top traders) observed that almost every trader approached the markets differently, yet they all made money.

If there are so many ways to trade profitably why is it so hard to achieve? Jack’s answer was they all found a style that suited them. 

In our trading room we run 5 different strategies that require different skills and time commitments. A new trader joining our team can explore the various styles of trading and select the one or two that “fit” their personality best. 

For example, two strategies require very...

Continue Reading...

The Daily Market Forecast

Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested buy level @ 3940.75 stopped out. 

Quick Tip: Risky Business  

There probably isn’t a book, course, or video on trading that doesn’t stress risk management as the key to ultimately succeeding. 

Determine your risk number. Make sure you consider losing streaks and drawdowns. Size your position. Use a stop loss order. Done. 

Not quite. That was simply one part of your “trade risk.” You still need to know if, and when, you’re going to move the stop. How are you capturing the profit that remains “at risk?”

There are many forms of risk in trading that require preset rules in your plan. 

1. Trade Risk: Managing open trades. 

2. Psychological: Managing your emotions. 

3. Market: Preparation for outlier events.

4. Liquidity: Ensuring your chosen asset has enough buyers/sellers. 

5. ...

Continue Reading...

The Daily Market Forecast

Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested short level @ 3990.50 was a breakout entry (not reversal) and ran for 16.75 points to the next volume level. That level was unpublished here and returned the favor for another 16.75 points. The suggested buy level @ 3933.50 only offered a 9.75-point bounce. 

Quick Tip: Play to Win 

All your results start with your orientation toward life. In Larry Wilson’s book, Play to Win: Choosing Growth Over Fear in Work and Life, he reveals the two orientations that you must choose between.

1. Play to win.

2. Playing not to lose

What’s the difference? 

People who have a positive attitude packed with a view of abundant opportunities that are willing to overcome challenges, grow and risk for gain are “Playing to Win.” 

Conversely, people who need to remain in their...

Continue Reading...

The Daily Market Forecast

Continue Reading...

The Daily Market Forecast

Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested buy @ 4038.00 was only good for a quick 6-point bounce. 

Quick Tip: Target Optimization

Yesterday you learned about the ratio between the Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE) and Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE). The higher the ratio the better. 

Yesterday’s suggested buy only offered 6.25 points before reversing. If your target was greater than that, you stopped out. Here’s how knowing the historical MFE for every individual trade your strategy set up, not just the average MFE (for the ratio mentioned above), will be very helpful. 

Let’s say you have collected MFE on hundreds of trades. You didn’t need to take the trades, they just needed to fit your strategy rule set. Sort the data by MFE, high to low. Now you can ask, “What percentage of the time does price go how far?”

Now you can assign targets to scale out of your winning...

Continue Reading...

Thanks for joining The Daily Market Forecast Community!

You'll receive an email shortly to verify your FREE enrollment