Trade Aptitude

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4181.75 stopped out in the Globex session last night. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4126.50 stop 4120.75. Short 4270.75 stop 4276.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from zero to -50 with most major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility.  

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, and Trade Balance @ 8:30. Fed’s Waller @ 9:00. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Bloomberg: Putin said there’s a risk that an escalating conflict could “spill far beyond the borders of the Middle East.” META down in pre-market on forecast of uncertainty. 

Quick Tip: When to Bank It

How traders approach their craft is very individual. Three traders using the same strategy may have different beliefs that vary their results, yet they follow the same asset selection and...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. The levels remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4181.75 stop 4177.50. Short 4305.00 stop 4309.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +21 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility.  

Catalysts: New Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Earnings from 251 companies including META after the close. 

Quick Tip: Confirmation

Here’s a great quote from Jesse Livermore that deserves your attention, “"Do not anticipate and move without market confirmation—being a little late in your trade is your insurance that you are right or wrong."

In our effort to succeed we can devote too much effort to predicting the future. Good luck. The problem is that our predictions are correct just enough to...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4261.50 only offered 7 points before stopping out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4181.75 stop 4177.50. Short 4305.00 stop 4309.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -57 to +21 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Flash MFG & Services PMI @ 9:45. Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. Treasury yields ease. MSFT & GOOG earnings after the close (applicable to Globex trading). 

Quick Tip: Small Winners

Trading has only four outcomes; big winners, small winners, small losers, and big losers. 

Allowing big losers is the kiss of death so keep what you’re risking small. Your small losers don’t need much analysis beyond stop loss optimization for varying market volatility. 

Your big winners are likely open managed or...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4228.50 filled in the Globex last night and stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4181.75 stop 4177.50. Short 4261.50 stop 4267.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -64 to -57 with all major world markets Bearish.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Treasuries hit 5%. Risk-off mood. 

Quick Tip: Cousin DOMO

Fear Of Missing Out, FOMO, is a negative emotional reaction traders have before they enter a trade. Price is gaining momentum and you’re on the sidelines. Impulsively, you break your entry rules and chase the trade. 

The problem with chasing is regardless of the outcome, win or lose, you lose psychologically. The wins only reinforce undisciplined trading. 

The best way to overcome FOMO is to have an abundance mindset. The markets...

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Trade Aptitude

Uncategorized Oct 20, 2023

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4385.75 filled in the Globex last night and ran for 18.50 points so far. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4228.50 stop 4223.25. Short 4328.00 stop 4333.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dips from -50 to -64 with all major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Harker speaks @ 9:00. Middle East conflict escalating. Risk-off mood. 

Quick Tip: Ratio Exits

Our volume-at-price strategy usually performs better in the Globex session. We know this from thousands of documented trades. The challenge for most of us is we’re sleeping! 

Setting a planned entry before bedtime is no problem. Optimizing the exit is the tricky part. 

One common exit is the trailing stop using initial risk. The downside is price can get spiky...

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Trade Aptitude

Uncategorized Oct 19, 2023

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4285.75 stop 4280.00. Short 4405.25 stop 4411.00. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dips from -43 to -50 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed-speak @ 9:00, 12:00 (Powell), 13:20 & 13:30. 

Quick Tip: Parabolic Moves 

Trending price moves in impulses and corrections in both directions. Three steps forward, one back. The trend continues until price moves sideways in a range. Eventually a new trend starts. Look at plenty of charts and notice this repetitive pattern. 

Sometimes the trend portion of the pattern doesn’t move in impulses and corrections. It’s a smooth series of vertical candles, a parabolic move....

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Trade Aptitude

Uncategorized Oct 18, 2023

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4415.00 stopped out.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

The volume levels are very far apart, a good reason to have other strategies to trade. Buy 4285.75 stop 4280.00. Short 4498.00 stop 4502.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +36 to -43 with all major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Building Permits & Housing Starts @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed-speak @ 12:00, 12:30, 13:00 and 15:15. Beige Book @ 14:00. China’s growing again. War gets ugly. Risk off mood. 

Quick Tip: Two More Choices

Yesterday I shared the idea that a good exit may be an opposing signal from a different strategy that you use and know has an edge. In fact, there were 4 choices suggested.

One of our trading team members offered further choices that expand this, and I wanted to...

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Trade Aptitude

Uncategorized Oct 18, 2023

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered with the short @ 4415.00 missing fill by 3 ticks, then running for 30 points. ☹ Both levels remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4285.75 stop 4280.00. Short 4415.00 stop 4419.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -36 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Retail Sales @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Fed-speak @ 8:00 & 9:20. Earnings heat up. Israeli war updates.

Quick Tip: Four Choices

All the money is made or lost in the exit. Significant research, documentation and review is essential to finding what works best for your style. 

One exit we find productive in our trading room is a counter signal from a different strategy. Let’s say you’re profitably long using a trend strategy and...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4402.25 only ran for 8.25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4285.75 stop 4280.00. Short 4415.00 stop 4419.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases up from -64 to -36 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Fed-speak @ 10:30. Israeli war updates.

Quick Tip: “Almost” Trades

Your control of trading is limited. You can control entry, exit, risk, and reward. You have no control over where the price goes. 

Friday’s short was planned well. Price rallied to a key volume level where shorting had edge, then reversed and went 8.25 points in your favor. Hopefully you found some profit in the move and tightened your stop loss. 

The second touch went a few ticks beyond the original stop printing the high of the...

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Trade Aptitude

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4397.25 ran for 20.25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4228.50 stop 4223.25. Short 4402.25 stop 4406.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +64 to -64 with all major world markets Bearish.

Catalysts: JPM beats on earnings. Import Price Index @ 8:30. Fed-speak @ 9:00. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Israeli war escalates. 

Quick Tip: Edge on Friday the 13th?

It turns out there is no edge to be found on Friday the 13th. However, there is some interesting evidence about trading on any Friday. 

It's believed that stock markets tend to rally on Friday due to short covering by traders to avoid paying interest on a short position over the weekend. 

Our intraday trend strategy for the S&P futures shows a solid long bias throughout the day...

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