The Daily Market Forecast... Admission

Tuesday’s Results: The suggested short @ 4414.50 stopped out for a 5.75-point loss (per contract).

Quick Tip: Admission

Five losers in a row yesterday and passed on a few trades that were winners. If this hasn’t happened to you it will. Afterward I received this text from a member of the team…

“I am sorry you took a beating today. You REALLY do lose gracefully. Well done! The worst thing about trading isn’t losing trades, it’s losing trades AND skipping the winners. Our minds play tricks with us on such days.”

So, what are the lessons here?

First, if you’re upset about losing you’re taking on too much risk. Lower your position size.

Second, review your performance. In doing so I realized that one trade did not fulfill all the rules. I shouldn’t have taken it. It was a momentary lack of discipline and attention. Knowing this and admitting it is a powerful tonic for improvement. But you won’t get better if you...

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The Daily Market Forecast... Uncommon Success

Wednesday’s Blog Levels: Nothing triggered in the day session

Quick Tip: Uncommon Success.

The chart above shows two trades from the Globex session leading into yesterday’s open. You’d call that the perfect night. Two 29.50-point runners from level to level. Set and forget. Wake up happy!

Unfortunately, it’s not common. But it does happen every month or so. As the great Wayne Gretzky said, “You miss all the shots you don’t take.” If you’re not planning a couple of set/forget trades for the Globex session before bedtime, you’re missing some big winning shots.

Oh yeah, sometimes you’ll wake up to the little losers. Missed shots. Small if you’re disciplined. No big deal.

If your trade plan doesn’t have a unique ruleset for the Globex session you should get one. Right here! We’ve recently introduced a new membership, only $99/month with the current coupon code. Just two S&P points. You’ll get all the...

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The Daily Market Forecast... Embrace Change

Tuesday’s Blog Levels: Neither trade triggered.

Quick Tip: Embrace change.

Successful investors and traders alike have a rule-based strategy that provides them a financial advantage or “edge.” A combination of fundamental and technical analysis are typical components. Another analysis you can add to the recipe is investor “mood” commonly called sentiment. In other words, do market participants feel bullish, bearish or neutral about the future?

While every region and country has a unique economy, given the volume of international trade those individual economies are part of a larger “global” economy. The U.S. economy is the largest in the world but more importantly for us it is also the last market traded on the daily clock. This allows U.S. traders a glimpse at how the Asian and European markets are trading before our stock market opens.

Many years ago, I developed a simple indicator for world sentiment, which I call the World Index. The...

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The Daily Market Forecast... Powerful Habit

Monday’s Blog Levels: The short idea never triggered and the market opened below the long idea.

Quick Tip: Powerful Habit

Do you know anyone who read the Bible, Quran, Torah, or Vedas only once? (Sorry if I missed your faith but you’ll get the point in a moment).

You read anything enlightening once… “Interesting! I didn’t know that. I’m definitely following this advice!”

Result: A few days of spotty application. Your experience is now called “history.” You didn’t change.

You read anything enlightening a few times… “I’m getting this. I see how it’s changing me for the better. I feel calmer, more intelligent, motivated. Wow!”

Result: You have some new habits. You’re seriously applying. Your experience is now called “real.” You’re changing.

You re-read anything enlightening regularly… “I knew that and forgot it! Studying this needs to be on my calendar....

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The Daily Market Forecast... Multi-Strat

Uncategorized Apr 11, 2022

Friday’s Blog Levels: The suggested buy at 4475.75 picked the bottom of the day session and ran for 40.25 points.

Quick Tip: Multi-Strat Trading

Trading multiple strategies with edge offers you big benefits:

  1. Diversification
  2. Abundance of setups
  3. Fine-tuning for current market conditions

Here’s the link to the webinar recording from yesterday explaining this hedge fund business model in more detail. Watch it today, though. There is a time-sensitive offer you don’t want to miss.

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points

Sell 4486.50 stop 4490.75

Buy 4458.75 stop 4453.00

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Daily Traders Blog - Whipping Fear

Subject: Whipping fear.

You know that a confident trader is a winning trader, and a fearful trader is a losing trader. Part of your personal development plan should be eliminating your fears. Yes, fears. Plural. You can have more than one. Over the years teaching traders I’ve noticed different types of fear.

  1. The most obvious is fear of loss. Managing your risk, pre-determining your “risk number” (the amount that negatively affects you either financially or psychologically) is the simple answer. Everyone can do this.
  2. Fear of being wrong. This is a huge problem with traders and not so obvious. Look back to grade school. The teacher asked the class a question and only a few hands were raised. Not yours. Did you not know the answer? Or were you scared to be wrong in front of your friends? Fear of being wrong paralyzes some traders even when their risk number doesn’t.
  3. Fear of not being in control. We all know people who are most comfortable when in control. They...
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The Daily Market Forecast... breakeven wins

Yesterday: The suggested long at 4470.50 only bounced 4.75 points before continuing down.  

Quick Tip: Breakeven is a win.

Big win, little win, breakeven, little loser, big loser. All the outcomes of your trades. You don’t allow for big losers so that leaves all acceptable outcomes.

You can turn some of those little losers into breakeven trades. If you move your stop to breakeven after a pre-determined move in your direction (we use 4 S&P points) the outcomes are big win, little win, breakeven. Your drawdowns will be smaller. Your equity curve will be smoother.

What’s the downside? Subsequent price action doesn’t touch your original stop and the trade went on to your profit targets. You missed a winner.

You need confidence in your strategy and rules to succeed. Choose the style that appeals to your personality. Then keep records of every trade setup, taken or not, to find out which is better financially.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points:


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The Daily Market Forecast... orphans

Tuesday’s Results: The suggested short @ 4580.50 nailed the top of the day session and ran for 63.75 points to the close. How much did you get?

Quick Tip: Orphans.

Entry decisions are easy. Exits are tough. If you managed this trade you likely took profit before the end of the day.  There were two 15+ point corrections in the trend down. Watching that money leave your account is tough. Not getting the full move of 63.75 points is tough, too.

All-star trader Larry Williams, in his book Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading, finds that his best trades are those exited at the close. He researched and tested all kinds of exit strategies to determine this. His advice: enter and walk away. Come back at the close.

Another great trader I know, Bob Dunn, would say something similar. His view is NOT to cap your wins but let them run. In fact, this is a common view from many great traders. Cap your losses and let your winners run.

The challenge is this: you’re reviewing...

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Daily Traders Blog

Subject: The foundation of success. 

Success at trading, at anything, is formulaic. No one stays successful at anything without a proven formula to follow. What’s yours? 

You may think it’s your trade plan. You may think you need the hottest strategies, the best broker, more risk capital, and better sources of information. All that surely helps but the foundation for your success starts within you. It’s your belief. 

Do you honestly believe you can become a top-notch trader? Or are you thinking of giving it a try? Trying isn’t enough to overcome the challenges of anything worthwhile. It’s a negative belief. Knowing you’ll succeed is a positive belief. 

The glass-half empty trader will think, “I don’t KNOW I’ll be successful, but I’ll try my best.” The glass-half full trader visualizes their success every day. Regardless of their daily result. You will have losing...

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The Daily Market Forecast... lose your edge?

Friday’s Blog Results: No short fill. The long level @ 4510 stopped out for a 3.50-point loss (per contract).  

Quick tip: Lose your edge?

Your trade strategies must have “edge,” otherwise you’re gambling and likely losing. The challenge is that edge is not always permanent. You need to be vigilant in your review process and notice when the edge may be fading or gone.

Our team has been relying on some edge that was validated by thousands of trade setups. This past weekend I updated the edge document to reflect current market conditions and some of those rules needed adjustments.

Strategies and trade plans can evolve. If you’re losing confidence in your strategy don’t assume it lost its edge. Research your results database. You might find, as we did, some minor changes to reflect a changing market will bring the edge right back. Learn more about trade plans and edge. Click here.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points:


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