The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 210902 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trading modestly higher, two takeable trades, one small loser and one still open with one target in the bag. 

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. Jobless Claims will set the early trend. Not trading until that report is digested. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to ladder credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4526.25/4528.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4526/4527.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +64 to +21 in a world of low volatility, mildly bullish sentiment (modest short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Wed 210901 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trading higher, one takeable trade, two targets in the bag and still open.

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. No big obvious catalysts. Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW credit spreads.

The Mortgage Payment trade is currently profitable for both SPY calls and TLT puts. 

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4518.25/4522.25. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4522.25/4527.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from zero to +64 with all major world markets solidly bullish (short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.90, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. No obvious tells.

Catalysts: ADP...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Tue 210831 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: More new highs but Volume Profile didn’t pay out missing the better opportunity waiting for the retracement… two takeable trades, one small winner, one stopped.

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. No big obvious catalysts. Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW credit spreads to start a ladder.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4529.75/4532.75. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4521.75/4524 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from +29 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment (no edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.90, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. Globex charts show all three...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Mon 210830 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Very slow session but another new high. One takeable trade that stopped out.

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4504.25/4506.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4493.25/4496.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases up from zero to +29 in a mildly bullish world with low volatility (short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.91, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. Globex charts show oil breaking a downtrend line and the S&P remaining flat, if oil leads the S&P should rise. Yen is flat saying nothing.

...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Globex Review: Trading higher but not quite to our short level. Nice Globex session for set-and-forget with price in the middle of two levels that are wide apart.

Day Session Analysis: Any forecast before Powell’s speech is worthless. Cautious beforehand and trading real-time price action afterward. Friday (both sessions combined garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters and holding off on SPXW credit spreads until after Powell.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4487.25/4489.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4475/4476.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -50 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment and a return to low volatility (no edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.91, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. Globex charts show oil (uptrend) more bullish than the...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 210826 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Still range-bound. One takeable trade was a small loser.

Day Session Analysis: Charts suggest a continued melt-up or range day. Stats are mixed. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. PREFER trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters and holding off on starting a ladder on the SPXW given the uncertainty tomorrow morning (Powell).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4492.75/4496. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4489.25/4490.75 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from +7 to -50 with most major world markets bearish with volatility kicking up from yesterday (long edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.91, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. Globex charts show uptrends for CL...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Wed 210825 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Still range-bound. Price whipsawed the CPL for two losers.

Day Session Analysis: Charts suggest a continued melt-up or range day. Stats are mixed. The highest volume level has been whipsawed in two sessions now (yesterday and Globex last night). Leary of trading Volume Profile today.  Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). PREFER trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and HOPING for credit spread premium on the SPXW. Vacation day, anyone?

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4481.50/4484.00. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and WITHIN the equilibrium 4482.50/4484 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +36 to +7 in a world of mixed sentiment and very low volatility (no edge).

Catalysts: Durable Goods @ 8:30. EIA...

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Tue 210824 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trying to melt up again. One takeable trade still open with two targets in the bag.

Day Session Analysis: Charts suggest a continued melt-up or range day. Stats are mixed. Looking to take trades in either direction with good reward/risk.  Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels to ladder-in on the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4478.50/4482.50. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4466.75/4472.75 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +71 to +36 in a bullish-leaning world of mixed sentiment (short edge).

Catalysts: New Home Sales @ 10:00. Washington is in a mess (infrastructure bill, Afghanistan)....

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Mon 210823 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Melting on up. One takeable trade still open with two targets in the bag.

Day Session Analysis: Risk ON as world sentiment is very bullish. Looking to take trades in either direction with good reward/risk.  Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels on the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4435/4438.25. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4416.25/4425.75 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) registers +71 with all major world markets bullish (short edge).

Catalysts: PMI Composite Flash @ 9:45. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00.

Trends: 60 min UP (starting to range), daily UP (short edge).

Chart: High outside day (long edge)....

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The Daily Market Forecast

For Thursday 210819 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Down market, very busy with 8 trades documented, 4 takeable offering 2 winners netting +23 points.

Day Session Analysis: Fed tapering coming soon. All world markets are bearish. Charts say a continuation down (or sell rallies). Stats say BUY the dips. Seems like a perfect environment for BB Rev. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%) but overall gains are very low. Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and HOLDING OFF on credit spread ladders due to extreme volatility and lack of directional bias.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4434/4440. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4406.5/4411.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/+100) plummets from +14 to -86 with...

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