Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4155.50 triggered late in the day catching the top of the session but only good for a few points at the close.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (disqualified during PCE announcement until expected volatility calms):
Buy 4108.00 stop 4103.50. Short 4176.50 stop 4181.75.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from +36 to +7 with Asia Bullish and the west Bearish.
Catalysts: Personal Income/Spending, PCE Price Index & Employment Cost Index @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Revised Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations @ 10:00. AMZN beats, doesn’t hold gain on cloud growth forecast. BOJ sticks with stimulus.
Quick Tip: Swinging
Traders come in different colors. Short term, long term, institutional, and retail. Quite a mix of intentions. If you read this newsletter every day you’re probably a retail trader.
Normally I write...
Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither level triggered.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (disqualified during GDP announcement until expected volatility calms):
Buy 4059.25 stop 4055.00. Short 4155.50 stop 4158.50.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) leaps from -21 to +36 with all major world markets neutral to Bullish on lower volatility.
Catalysts: GDP & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. META beats, holds 12% gain.
Quick Tip: Persistence
Every successful person in trading and in life has gone through barriers and setbacks to achieve their success.
In trading everyone deals with losing streaks, drawdowns, unfilled winning trades, slippage, internet outages, criticism from family and friends, and more.
“I have not failed. I have just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” Thomas Edison
“I have...
Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4120.75 only bounced for 4.50 points.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets):
Buy 4059.25 stop 4055.00. Short 4155.50 stop 4158.50.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -50 to -21 in a world of Bearish leaning mixed sentiment.
Catalysts: Durable Goods & International Trade @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. MSFT holds big gain, GOOG not so. Maybe waiting on GDP tomorrow, Personal Income on Friday.
Quick Tip: Stop & Reverse
After bouncing 4.50 points off the suggested volume level price plummeted 20+ points to the close. If you’re a novice trader you may be disappointed at the loss. If you’re a seasoned trader you’re OK with the loss. You planned for it. You only risked what you could comfortably afford to lose both financially and...
Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4131.25 triggered in the Globlex catching the low of the session and is still open with 12+ points MFE.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets):
Buy 4120.75 stop 4116.00. Short 4176.50 stop 4181.75.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from -21 to -50 with all major world markets modestly Bearish.
Catalysts: Home Price Index @ 9:00. Yellen speaks on Biden’s economic agenda @ 9:30. Consumer Confidence & New Home Sales @ 10:00.
Quick Tip: Night Moves
We’ve noticed that the volume levels suggested in this newsletter have been performing much better during the Globex session. Historically, this happens often. Keep that in mind when they don’t trigger during the day session.
Yesterday’s buy @ 4131.25 triggered at 4:21 ET while most of us...
Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Price chopped in a relatively narrow range, neither trade triggered.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets):
Buy 4131.25 stop 4127.50. Short 4176.50 stop 4181.75.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) rises from -57 to -21 in a world of mixed bearish-leaning sentiment on lower volatility.
Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar.
Quick Tip: Fall in Love
I took a call from a fellow over the weekend who was interested in joining our team. His first question was “How consistent are your results?” I said, “Define consistency.” He said, “I can handle a losing day but not a losing week.”
After I explained why that was an unrealistic expectation I went into my coaching questions sequence to understand more about his motivation to...
Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The short @ 4168.25 caught the top of the session and ran for 31.25 MFE and 15.50 at the close. Feel better about the win by donating a slice to my preferred charity, the Alzheimer’s Association. Click here.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets):
Buy 4120.75 stop 4116.00. Short 4176.50 stop 4181.75.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from -21 to -57 with most major world markets Bearish.
Catalysts: PMI Flash @ 9:45. POTUS is getting tougher on Chinese investment by American companies.
Quick Tip: The Turn
In Texas Hold ‘Em poker you’re dealt two “hole cards” (no one else can see them). In trading the analogy would be your setup to enter.
The next three cards are called the “flop” (everyone can see them). In trading we...
Results of Wednday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The short @ 4176.50 stopped out.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets):
Buy 4131.25 stop 4127.50. Short 4168.25 stop 4172.25.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) rises from -50 to -21 with most major world markets mildly Bearish on lower volatility.
Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. Scattered Fed Speak, Yellen tentative. Economy stalled recently, credit is tightening.
Quick Tip: Data Challenges
Technical traders rely on price charts to assess current market conditions and potential future moves. But all price charts are not created equally. You have many choices.
If you’re using time-based charts you must determine which time intervals apply best to your strategy. If you’re using share (volume)-based charts the same...
Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets):
Buy 4131.25 stop 4127.50. Short 4176.50 stop 4180.75.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +36 to -50 with all major world markets Bearish.
Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Beige Book @ 14:00. Big layoffs announced in Tech & Entertainment
Quick Tip: Nothing Changes?
Here’s a great quote from Market Wizard Ed Seykota, “The markets are the same now as they were 50 years ago because they keep changing – just like they did then.” Clever, huh?
We’ve seen the S&P volatility and range collapse over the past few weeks. The daily ATR (average true range) has dropped from 76 to 44. On March 23rd when ATR peaked our intraday trend strategy had an 86.75-point day....
Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets):
Buy 4163.75 stop 4160.00. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) eases from +43 to +36 with most major world markets mildly Bullish.
Catalysts: Maybe Housing Starts @ 8:30. China’s return to growth moves the European markets and S&P futures higher.
Quick Tip: Goals Don’t Work
I’m reading a great book, Atomic Habits by James Clear (highly recommended). Controversially, he opens with the view that goals while good don’t work. They’re inferior to the process you use to achieve the goal.
Goals focus on the outcome, while processes focus on building systems that lead to continuous achievement. Goals are...
Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4145.50 stopped out.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets):
Buy 4131.25 stop 4127.50. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) eases from +50 to +43 with China/HK Bullish and the west mixed.
Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Housing Market Index @ 10:00.
Quick Tip: Consistency
Every trader wants to have a consistent winning experience. Your consistency is only as good as the edge in your trading plan and your ability to follow the rules with precision. Easier said than done.
Curtis Faith, the most successful of the Turtle Traders, stresses that consistency comes from having a systematic approach and a thorough understanding of the limitations of that approach.
What’s he saying? Your...
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