The Daily Market Forecast

Wednesday’s Results: The suggested short @ 3994.50 offered 8.25 points, but you shouldn’t have taken it. 

Quick Tip: Filters

Your trading approach and basic strategy rules should have a positive expectation. We call it “edge.” Like a casino, you’ll lose plenty of trades but in the end you have a profit.  

Here’s the power in review and documentation. Once you’ve captured all kinds of data about your trades you can look for filters. 

The obvious filter yesterday was the FOMC announcement. You didn’t need review and documentation for that one. When the market gets too volatile you simply back off and wait for it to settle down. 

Other common filters are time of day, day of week, even day of month. Try some technical indicators, too. You’ll find benefit with RSI, Bollinger Bands, ATR, and others. 

Keep in mind, these are NOT predictive. They are...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Monday’s Results: Price chopped sideways in a very narrow range for recent volatility. The suggested buy @ 3962.75 stopped out. 

Quick Tip: Time to Change?

All traders experience losing streaks and drawdowns in their trading account. Market conditions change. Some strategies stop working and others start working. It’s all very cyclical.

Handling this is tricky. One voice in your head says, “stay the course, it’ll come back.” The other voice says, “dump this strategy and find one that is working.” 

But it doesn’t have to be a black or white decision. You can reduce your position size to the bare minimum or trade in simulation. Examining your equity curve for clues on how much prior down cycles lasted might help.

The BEST solution is not reactive, though. It’s proactive. Design your trade plan with multiple strategies. Even if you’re not trading them all at once, monitor their...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Friday’s Results: The suggested short picked the top of the market and ran for 26.25 points to the next volume level. 

Quick Tip: Trust or Fear? 

Friday was a brilliant day for our Volume Profile strategy. Four solid winners, one small loser. Looking at the chart above, price was fast approaching our suggested short level, which originated on June 9th. Would you trust it or be fearful? 

Ten minutes later, where we have our final profit target, the plan says… go long! Would you trust your plan or be fearful of losing some of that awesome gain? 

To trust your plan, you need to have a complete, personalized, and evidence-based plan (8 major components). It should be in harmony with a broader trading philosophy. 

If you want to learn more, our FREE “Ultimate Personalized Trade Plan” class has been updated with PAIDtm methodology (Plan/Abundance/Investigate/...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Wednesday’s Results: Neither suggested level triggered.

Quick Tip: Get PAIDtm

Trade plans are essential. But they are one piece of the puzzle. Aside from all the common components your trade plan needs an overriding structure, method, philosophy. We created the PAIDtm method of trading to accomplish this.

PAIDtm is an acronym for Plan/Abundance/Investigate/Decide. Simply said, we trade multiple strategies for an abundance of opportunities which we investigate for best probability then decide which trade to enter.

Abundance is critical. If you’re not getting plenty of quality trade setups you might be tempted to enter trades that you shouldn’t take. When you have choices, then you can be picky without any FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).

With choices comes the responsibility of investigation. You need hard evidence pointing to the best probability of success to ultimately...

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The Daily Market Forecast


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The Daily Market Forecast

Tuesday’s Results: The suggested short @ 3891.50 stopped out. 

Quick Tip: Reframe Losing

Our morning Live Trading Room is open for two hours. It’s recorded and posted to the website immediately afterward. There is a “cover” on each recording with a headline that summarizes the session (see above). 

Yesterday was one of those days when every trade I personally took failed. There were winning trades teed up by the multiple strategies we follow. In fact, our trend-following strategy killed it with the S&P. Not my trade selection, though.

Afterward, a team member texted me this: “The trading Gods simply wouldn’t give you a break today, and you still maintained your posture and calm demeanor throughout.” 

The fact is I didn’t feel badly yesterday. Losing happens. My daily cash risk is within my personal risk tolerance.

Winning and losing cycles. Sometimes those “streaks” are...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Monday’s Results: The suggested buy @ 3860.00 was only good for a 5.50-point bounce. 

Quick Tip: Fix FOMO

Seasoned traders spend time on the review process. They compare their results (behavior) to their plan. This is an excellent way to improve incrementally and get more disciplined. 

There is a “downside” you’ll need to handle, though. Since you can’t take every good trade every day and night you’ll find in your review process that you missed lots of great trades. The feeling gets worse when you happen to be in a drawdown and you’re seeing the losers on your statement and the winners absent. 

How do you feel about that? You may develop “Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO). And that will likely lead to overtrading and at the least, loss of confidence. 

Here is a simple reframing trick that should set you straight. Instead of focusing on all the winning trades you missed, ...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Friday’s Results: The suggested short @ 3821.00 stopped out in the pre-market. 

Quick Tip: Play to Win 

All your results start with your orientation toward life. In Larry Wilson’s book, Play to Win: Choosing Growth Over Fear in Work and Life, he reveals the two orientations that you must choose between.

1. Play to win.

2. Playing not to lose. 

What’s the difference? 

People who have a positive attitude packed with a view of abundant opportunities that are willing to overcome challenges, grow and risk for gain are “Playing to Win.” 

Conversely, people who need to remain in their comfort zone, looking for the “easy way,” have a skeptical, negative attitude, and don’t see opportunities clearly are “Playing Not to Lose.” 

Successful traders Play to Win. One key component of their formula is the mindset of ...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Thursday’s Results: Neither suggested level triggered. 

Quick Tip: Open Up

You have a rule-based plan with edge. If not, get one or quit trading. Rules in this case are meant to be followed. You want to be as machine-like as possible. Not easy for many of us, but that’s the goal.

Imagine that your plan is working fine. Your discipline following it is very good. Then you meet a trader who tells you there is a better way. 

What’s your reaction?

1. Nod politely, congratulate her on finding that “gem” and carry on doing what you’ve always done. 


2. Get excited, immediately re-write your rules, and expect a big improvement. 

You’ve probably met both types of traders. Fixed, disciplined, rarely willing to change and excitable, glib, and always changing. There is good and bad in both personality types. 

Consider a middle ground. When you hear of a “better...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Wednesday’s Results: CPI volatility blew price through the suggested buy @ 3772.50. 

Quick Tip: Don’t Trade

There are times when you shouldn’t trade. The CPI news yesterday was one of the times. Price became too volatile with slippage galore. There are other key catalysts you should monitor to know when not to trade. Some of the catalysts are asset-specific, like the EIA Petroleum Inventory Report (for oil). 

Add this simple step to your morning routine. Go to   even if you don’t trade currencies. Their economic calendar is one of the best. You can filter the calendar by currency, event type, and “impact” to get the exact information you need. 

If you trade stocks, you’ll need to know earnings release dates. Try

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (in fast moving markets consider a wider stop and less size): 

Sell 3806.50 stop 3812.25. 


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