Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The short at 4598.50 missed filling by 6 ticks. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4551.00 stop 4546.25. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -14 to +50 with all major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Core PCE Price Index (primary Fed inflation measure), Jobless Claims & Personal Income/Spending @ 8:30. FOMC Williams @ 9:15. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. OPEC meeting all day. 

Quick Tip: Find Your Filters 

Are there market conditions that your strategy performs better or worse in? Probably so. Price is either trending or not and volatile or not. These are very different conditions and knowing with evidence how your strategy performs in each of them is important. 

Why? Because you’ll be able to filter out trade setups in conditions that are not ideal. These filters become rules in your trade plan, which i...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4521.00 stop 4517.00. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -29 to -14 with Asia Bearish and the west Bullish. 

Catalysts: GDP @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Beige Book @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: UOA

Unusual Options Activity (UOA) is a great leading indicator of price. There are different ways to interpret exactly what qualifies an option to be “unusual” and how to utilize them in your trade selection. 

The foundation is an extreme volume spike relative to small open interest (existing contracts not yet closed out). 

Technical analysts generally agree that volume leads price, so this basis makes sense. If a stock is trading at $30 and massive volume occurs today in the $40 call options you could infer that some large traders might know something!

You probably ha...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4551 filled in the Globex session early this morning running for 9.50 points so far, still open. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4521.00 stop 4517.00. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -43 to -29 with most major world markets mildly Bearish. 

Catalysts: Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence, Richmond MFG Index, and Fed’s Goolsbee @ 10:00. More Fed speakers @ 10:05, 10:45, 13:05, and 15:30. 

Quick Tip: Mastering Trading

George Leonard noted in his book Mastery that “Our culture has become hooked on the quick fix, the life hack, efficiency. Everyone is on the hunt for that simple action algorithm that nets maximum profit with the least amount of effort.”

Sounds like “Lottery Mentality.” And unfortunately, those are the kinds of teasers you read in your emails every day. Don’t fall for them. 

To master anyt...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No trades triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4551.00 stop 4546.25. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +7 to -43 with most major world markets mildly Bearish. 

Catalysts: New Home Sales @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Lead or Lag?

The never-ending challenge in trading is forecasting future price direction using lagging information from technical indicators. Better than nothing but not good enough!

Significant research has proven that there are two superb Leading Indicators of stock price. Insider buying and Unusual Options Activity. 

Combining the two is the perfect addition to your stock/options trading plan. Learn how in this free training session. Click here. 

No disappointments!

Trade Fearlessly,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. Pass this free training offer along to your trading buddies! 

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4547.50 offered a 4-point scalp and the breakout did similar on a very narrow range day. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4521.00 stop 4517.00. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -29 to +7 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Durable Goods @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment (revised) @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. NVDA beats, drops, and rebounds. Holiday doldrums likely. 

Quick Tip: Be Grateful

You have losing trades, streaks, and even drawdowns from time to time. Deal with it by focusing on all you should be grateful for. 

Happy Thanksgiving!

Trade Fearlessly,

Mike Siewruk

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4547.50 stop 4543.25. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +7 to -29 with the major world markets flat or modestly Bearish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. FOMC Meeting Minutes @ 14:00. NVDA earnings after the close. 

Quick Tip: Be Different

“If you set out to be successful at something and you don’t know how to do it, look around at what everybody else is doing, and don’t do that…” Earl Nightingale

This advice is especially true with trading. If everyone traded the same way there would be no counter parties. We need plenty of different styles and opposing viewpoints for the markets to exist. 

If you’re still struggling it’s a good idea to stop trading live money and start looking at alternative trading styles. Be open-minded. I’ve met to...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4517.00 caught the bottom of the day and offered 17.50 maximum before closing the session +11.00 points.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4521.00 stop 4517.00. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to +7 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility.   

Catalysts: Nothing important on the economic calendar. 

Quick Tip: Insider Buying? 

Back on May 3rd of this year I blogged about how effective using Insider Buying is for future stock performance. On that day there was widespread Insider buying in the banking industry during the plunge from a few bank failures. 

Here’s how those trades worked out: 

TCBI +38% before settling +17% now.

LKFN +18% now. 

ZION +62% before settling +49% now. 

USB +31% before settling +22% now. 

How does that compare to the overall market? During the same time SPY reached a high of...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4517.00 stop 4511.25. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -36 to +14 with China/HK Bearish and the west mildly Bullish.  

Catalysts: Building Permits & Housing Starts @ 8:30. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 9:45. 

Quick Tip: Flexcasting

Forecasting is tough. You can find and analyze all the available evidence and still get it totally wrong. That’s where flexibility comes in. Hence the word “Flexcasting.” 

Here’s an example:

1. Historically the S&P trends long the best on Fridays. Maybe it’s due to short covering before the weekend. Maybe it’s just the high spirits going into two days off. It doesn’t matter. The evidence is there.

2. There are no major known catalysts today that could cause a selloff. 

3. The big picture trend is strongly up. 

4. The Globex session has been q...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered and the levels remain on the chart.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4430.00 stop 4425.75. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +64 to -36 with most major world markets modestly Bearish.  

Catalysts: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed MFG Index, Import Prices @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Fed’s Williams @ 9:25. Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Waller @ 10:30. Fed’s Barr @ 10:35. 

Quick Tip: Tops & Bottoms

Here’s a great exercise in price pattern recognition that will help you with your entries and exits. 

Scan any price chart in your favorite time intervals. Look at the swing highs and lows of the price movement. Mark the “V” bottoms and “round” tops. You’ll find that they occur more often than not. 

How does this help? If you’re long and looking for an exit, the stall in momentum, the “rou...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The short at 4498.00 stopped out. The breakout ran for 19.25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4430.00 stop 4425.75. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from +7 to +64 with all major world markets solidly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PPI, Retail Sales & Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 9:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: Parabolic Moves

Yesterday was as fun as trading can be if you were long. Day, swing, or position trades all printed green.

For day trades you’re ready for a continuation or a reversal today. No worries. But for swing and position trades you have a tough decision to make. 

The S&P is in a near parabolic move up. These simply don’t last forever, sometimes not for long at all. Yes, we’ve all heard the advice “Let your winners run” but for how far? 

You should have some targets for exit o...